Türkiye has experienced significant silent revolutions in terms of the social welfare state in the last 20 years.

Investments in social protection, which consisted only of a small Social Assistance and Solidarity Fund in the early 2000s, have undergone significant expansion in both social services and aid. The Social Security Reform in 2006 established the groundwork for a sustainable social insurance system, vastly increasing its scope and coverage. The introduction of General Health Insurance in 2012 extended comprehensive health coverage to nearly the entire population, which inspired the Affordable Care Act (also known as "Obamacare") of the United States. Over the past two decades, Türkiye has completely revitalized its health infrastructure, transitioning from a fragmented "cottage hospital" system to a high-standard "family medicine" system. Former state hospitals have been upgraded with state-of-the-art equipment, and campus hospitals (city hospitals) now offer world-class medical services.

Over the past two decades, the Turkish Welfare Regime has evolved beyond mere "coal and pasta" distribution to the poorest often dismissed as "election bribes" by certain political science academics. On the contrary, while welfare retrenchment is taking place in all the world’s welfare states, Türkiye has established a very comprehensive and multilayered welfare system as to start from the mid-2000s.

These revolutions in Türkiye's welfare system have played a major role in the stable and broad support of large segments of voters for President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) governments. Leaving aside the foreign exchange and cost of living crisis of the last two years, the poor segments of the society have always benefited from the policies of the AK Party governments and increased their welfare and participation in social life during Erdoğan’s rule.

The reason why the poor have made Erdoğan win 17 elections in the last 20 years is neither related to "Turkish voters' fondness for charismatic leadership" nor to the "dominant character of conservative voter base" theories, but it is fundamentally and primarily related to rational voters showing strategic voting behavior and voting for the continuation of policies that increase their interests and daily welfare.

As to label with the very words of President Erdoğan, "the alienated and the poor people" ("garip gureba, fakir fukara" in Turkish) have established a relationship of mutual benefit and understanding with the AK Party within the last 20 years. This is the critical point that many political scientists analyzing Türkiye miss: The basis of Erdoğan's bond with voters in the last two decades is hidden in his social policy reforms, in fact, silent revolutions. Whenever a political scientist claims his name as an expert on Turkish politics and undervalues and neglects this argument, you can be sure that his analysis is superficial in the end.

Social protection spending increase

We have new data before us proving where Türkiye has come in terms of investments in social protection. Official data on Türkiye's social protection expenditures and investments and their consequences on society are regularly monitored, compiled and published by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat). Social protection expenditure data covering the years 2000 to 2022 was recently updated and published by the institute.

In these published Social Protection Statistics, TurkStat has announced the most up-to-date data within the framework of revisions made in existing data sources, obtaining detailed administrative record data, accessing additional data sources and methodological improvements.

The headline is that the data reveal that Türkiye's social protection expenditures have increased sixfold in a short period of 10 years. Let us also underline that the last data compiled is for 2022 and that these expenditures continued to increase in the years 2023 and 2024 – especially due to the increase of the number of retirees with the recent pension overhaul – and this will be clearly seen in the official data to be announced in the future.

According to the latest compiled statistics for 2022, Türkiye's social protection expenditure has increased by 60.2% compared to the previous year and reached nearly TL 1.3 trillion. This shows that social protection expenditures, which were TL 220 billion in 2013, increased sixfold in less than 10 years and reached TL 1.29 trillion by 2022. This means that Türkiye was spending annually $69 billion on social protection (considering the exchange rate by the end of 2022).

When we look at the details, 98.2% of this expenditure consists of social protection aid with TL 1.26 trillion. The biggest expenditure in social protection aid was the expenditure for retirees/elderly people with over TL 567 billion. Türkiye currently has 16.1 million retirees, and pensions paid through the Social Security Institution constitute the highest social transfer item. It should be noted that, as I have stated many times in my previous articles, that is why retirees have become the critical voter segment in the current conjuncture and will continue to present their mark on Türkiye's political atmosphere.

Data shows that pension expenditures made in 2022 are followed by illness/health care expenditures with TL 397 billion. It is seen that Türkiye allocates 11.6% of social protection benefits to widows and orphans in 2022, and 6.5% of social protection benefits to family and child benefits.

8.6% of GDP goes to social protection expenditures

According to the mentioned data of TurkStat, the share of social protection expenditures in gross domestic product (GDP) was 8.6% in 2022. The share of social protection aid in GDP was 8.4%. When looked at on the basis of risk/need groups, it is seen that the expenditures on retirees/elderly people have the largest share with 3.8%. This is followed by illness/health care expenses at 2.6% and widow/orphan expenses at 1.0%. However, it should be noted that while the ratio of social protection expenditures to GDP was 11.1% in 2021, it has shrunk due to the impact of the 2022 foreign exchange crisis.

According to the data, 13.0% of social protection benefits are given conditionally. The largest share among conditional benefits is family/child benefits, with 47.5%. This is followed by disability/invalidity benefits with 20.4% and illness/health care benefits with 13.9%. Türkiye has been carrying out important experiments in conditional welfare allocations for the last decade. Aid is concentrated in applications such as conditional education aid, which is conditional on the child's continuing education, and disability care pension, which is conditional on continuing the care of the disabled person.

Citizens primarily prefer benefits in cash

When we look at the type of social aid expenditures made by Türkiye, we see that cash transfers are the dominant type. Data shows that 62.4% of social protection benefits are given in cash. The two main reasons for this are, on the one hand, that the Turkish welfare regime is still in its baby steps in terms of social services, and on the other hand, citizens prefer cash aid that contributes to their financial well-being over in-kind aid/services. As a cultural preference, citizens prefer to meet their needs with the money given to them rather than the services provided by the state of which they cannot have control over the quality. In this context, as the results of the last local elections show, beneficiaries, specifically pensioners, are highly sensitive to the erosion of cash benefits, especially pensions, against inflation.

The largest share in cash aid for 2022 is assistance to retirees/elderly people, with 71.2%. This is followed by widow/orphan benefits at 18.6% and family/child benefits at 4.5%.

It should be noted that in the developing and still juvenile Turkish social welfare model, the significant burden of social protection falls on the shoulders of the state. According to 2022 data, 41.4% of social protection revenues are made up of state contributions. The most important reason for this active role of the state is that the nongovernmental welfare-producing civil society in Türkiye is not exceptionally developed. However, it should also be noted that informal welfare mechanisms and family solidarity networks, which have a very large prominence in Türkiye, are not included in official statistics. Likewise, it should be noted that religious communities (Islamic sects and congregations) foundations, and associations play an important role in the distribution of welfare in Türkiye, and there is a very broad infrastructure in terms of philanthropic welfare, yet it is not reflected in official statistics. Thus, informal welfare constitutes the underwater part of the iceberg in the Turkish welfare system.

Sustainability issue

According to the data from 2022, state contributions make up 41.4% of social protection income, followed by employer contributions at 28.4% and individual contributions at 23.1%. It is worth noting that Türkiye's welfare regime draws from a mix of financing models: Scandinavian-style taxes, German premium contributions, and Anglo-Saxon tax credits/deductions. To ensure the sustainability of Türkiye's welfare system, it is crucial to harmonize the premium system (employer and employee contributions) with the substantial pension expenditures drawn from it.

Furthermore, the active/passive ratio of the social insurance regime has dwindled to 1.6 following the latest pension overhaul, coupled with a rapid rise in expenditures by the Social Security Institution (SSI). This underscores the critical importance of sustaining the pay-as-you-go system. Addressing the financing challenges of Türkiye's pay-as-you-go social insurance system has become a pressing issue for the welfare regime, necessitating significant reforms in the coming years.

To sum up, Türkiye has revolutionized its welfare model within the last two decades and exponentially expanded investments in social protection. The petty negligible social protection model in the early 2000s has grown into a maturing welfare state in this process. With President Erdoğan’s social policies large segments of the society have improved their welfare and condition. From social work to social aid, from social security to health care, Türkiye has established its own welfare system, as a mixture of different aspects of diverse European welfare models. However, ensuring financial sustainability, preventing welfare dependency, and maturing experimental welfare programs, and restructuring them based on efficiency and effectiveness constitute Türkiye's most important social policy agendas for the next decade. The country is required to align its welfare model to changing social realities. Critically, the pay-as-you-go social security system awaits urgent reform.