Türkiye will hold municipal elections on March 31 to determine local administrations. With these critical elections, mayors, metropolitan mayors, municipal council members, provincial council members and local mukhtars will be elected.

These elections are important for both the opposition and the government for several reasons. First of all, the results of the elections will give the first signals about the forthcoming general elections in four years. Secondly, the results will show how well the opposition has managed to consolidate their electorate after last year's election defeat. Thirdly, the elections will be critical in terms of showing the citizens' reaction to the cost-of-living crisis triggered by high inflation, on the one hand, and to the tight monetary policies of the Ministry of Treasury and Finance, on the other hand. Last of all, metropolitan cities and specifically Istanbul’s results will be indicators of the direction of Turkish politics. Thus, the March 31 elections will have much greater implications for Türkiye than being a race of local politicians.

The local elections on March 31 will also give important clues about the effects of two different and opposing trends in the population structure: the increase of young voters on the one hand, and the aging society on the other.

Türkiye is still classified among countries with a young population. However, Türkiye's demographic opportunity window is narrowing swiftly. As seen from the elderly ratio of the population, which hit 10% in 2023 as a historical record, the country is moving rapidly toward the aging crisis experienced by all developed countries.

In this election, 1.15 million voters just turned 18 and will vote for the first time. Therefore, it is important to convince young voters. However, then again, 2.1 million pensioners who retired last year, will vote as well. In other words, retired voters have increased more than young voters for the upcoming elections.

There was a serious decrease in the annual population growth of Türkiye in 2023. The population growth rate, which was 7.1 per thousand in 2022, increased by only 1.1 per thousand in 2023. This is the lowest level in the republic’s history. The fertility rate has fallen below the population renewal rate of 2.1. While the median age of the country was 27-29 in 2007, it has increased to 33-35 in 2023. According to population projections, it is predicted to be 35.6 in 2030, 38.5 in 2040, 42.3 in 2060 and 45.0 in 2080. While Türkiye's young population is a strategic advantage, this outlook is changing and the middle-aged and especially the dependent elderly population are important demographics. This has been an ongoing process for the last decade and now it is irreversible.

This data has important consequences in terms of political science. Classically, political science says that as the population ages, societies tend to become more conservative and make their political choices in favor of the political center and continuity of stability. On the other hand, since the increase in the elderly population creates an additional burden on the middle class through welfare systems, it may cause changes in both the sustainability of welfare regimes and the sociological-political demands of the middle class. Likewise, in countries with a high dependency ratio, the increase of the non-productive population in the economy, such as young, elderly and immigrants, triggers a change in public policy priorities among decision-makers.

Largest voter segment: Retirees

From this perspective, retirees are one of the most important voter groups in today’s Türkiye. Türkiye currently has around 16.1 million retirees. It is expected to be 16.5 million by the end of this year. With the recent pension law overhaul of 2023, 2 million will retire, as it becomes possible for women to retire at the age of 38 and for men at the age of 43 if they have completed 16 years of insured employment and entered the workforce prior to Sept. 8, 1999. The recent overhaul is expected to open the door to retirement at very young ages for a total of 5 million people within a decade. This means that the number of retirees may reach 20 million before 2030. This is more than the population of many European countries.

Moreover, retirees are becoming the largest social group in Türkiye. For comparison, according to the statistics of the Social Security Institution (SSI), as of 2023, there are 16.5 million laborers, 3.5 million public servants and 3 million independent workers (company partners or tradespeople) in Türkiye. There are also 8 million General Health Insurance holders within the population, 2 million of whom pay their own premiums and 6 million of whom have their premiums paid by the state. The remaining 34 million people are dependents of active workers or retirees.

While the population aged 65 and over, which is considered the elderly population, was only 6.7% of the population at the beginning of the millennium, it increased to 9.9% (approximately 8.5 million people) in 2022. On the other hand, while the ratio of the young population between the ages of 15-24 in the total population was 19% in 2000, it has decreased below 14% (approximately 12 million people) by 2022. In other words, the elderly are increasingly becoming a dominant voter group, and this has imperative political outcomes for Türkiye's future elections.

Retirees: Erdoğan’s most loyal voter base

The majority of retirees vote for President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Erdoğan sometimes has difficulty getting votes from youth yet has a dominant influence on retired voters. This trend is a phenomenon that has left its mark on the last two decades of Turkish politics. Research shows that while the Justice and Development Party's (AK Party) voting rate is low among youth, it reaches 60% among the elderly and retirees.

The reason for this is, on the one hand, that this segment is familiar with the troubled 1990s, which Erdoğan refers to as "the old Türkiye," and on the other hand, that Erdoğan has implemented regulations that protect retirees and the elderly on several issues, from health care to care services, from social benefits to early retirement policies. Due to the high level of influence of the Turkish welfare program on the voting preferences of the voters, the first group from which President Erdoğan receives the most votes is housewives, while the second group is retirees. This is because social welfare policies and the expansion of social protection expenditures directly affect the daily lives of these social groups and increase their daily welfare. These social groups act rationally and show strategic voting behavior for the continuity of the welfare policies.

However, the upcoming elections will be a political test of the strength of the bond between the AK Party and retirees. The 2023 general elections broke the so-called rule in political science saying, "Empty pots can cost you elections." The reason for this was that, despite the heavy inflationary effects, Turkish voters preferred not to surrender the country to the incompetent sevenfold coalition of the opposition and a political atmosphere designed by the PKK terrorist organization. Yet, the forthcoming are local elections, and there is no threat of change in the central government. Thus, the attitude of the Turkish electorate, especially the elderly, who are overwhelmed by the effects of the economic crisis, and who voted for the continuation of the central government in the general elections in 2023, would be decisive in the local elections. It is a critical challenge in this respect that the president has seen and paid attention to policies for pensioners and included relevant policies among his promises.

Economic crisis hits pensioners hardest

On the other hand, the recent economic problems have affected retired people the most. The currency crisis and the subsequent inflationary environment dramatically reduced the purchasing power of retirees. Seeing this issue, the government recently took various steps to raise their living standards, such as increasing the minimum pension to TL 10,000 ($320).

However, some claim the measures are not sufficient. In his speech in Kütahya on Feb. 28, Erdoğan stated: "Some people try to provoke the pensioners. We have 16 million pensioners and paying them a one-time TL 10,000 means allocating a source of TL 1.9 trillion," also pointing out that it was a high cost for Türkiye.

"We are aware of the widened gap between pensions (of people with different social security programs), but we have to take meticulous steps as the public would hold us accountable for what we will do," he said.

"As a country, we need to generate more income for higher salaries."

His many recent statements like this one show how much importance he gives to the pensioner voters.

Turkish pensioners as swing voters

It seems that not only the government but also the opposition sees this as critical. We see that promises aimed at elderly and retired voters come to the fore. A series of promises, from giving social cards to retirees to the right to free travel on public buses and subways, aim to influence retired voters. Some mayors even promise to give additional cash support of between TL 2,500 and TL 10,000 to in-need retirees. Making such a promise, even though it is an issue that is not directly within the jurisdiction of municipalities, reveals how important pensioners are perceived.

The March 31 election results will also contain important indicators as to whether the political orientations of pensioners have changed. It is stated by many political commentators that pensioners may play a critical role in terms of reaction votes, especially if reaction votes are directed to smaller-scale conservative political parties such as the New Welfare Party (YRP) and the Felicity Party (SP). In this context, pensioners might be the kingmaker in the March 31 local elections for many constituencies.

In the face of the aging population of Türkiye, the competence of politicians to produce solutions to the problems of retirees and the elderly will gain importance in terms of directing voting preferences. Retirees have comprehensive demands such as a pension sufficient for a decent living standard, priority in health care services and provision of qualified social care services. Politicians who can produce applicable and sustainable solutions to these comprehensive and multidimensional problems of retirees and convince retired voters about them will have an advantage. This would be a key policy issue all politicians will try to address. It seems that the Turkish pensioners' phenomenon will be a key issue not only for the forthcoming local elections but for the next decade of Turkish politics.