Pakistan’s political landscape is transforming every hour, with its most influential institutions, the military and the judiciary, locked in a standoff over the fate of former Prime Minister Imran Khan.
Despite his reputation for swiftly changing his stance over political issues, Khan has now condemned attacks on military installations, asking, “Who isn’t condemning?”
The past weeks have been marked by a protracted struggle involving Khan’s arrest, bail and an ongoing crackdown on his hideout in Zaman Park Lahore, where law enforcement agencies are searching for individuals linked to attacks on the military.
Khan’s arrest sparked widespread violent protests that descended into riots, looting, and the burning of iconic buildings and private properties. In addition, Pakistan faces the critical challenge of maintaining national unity amid reports of severe divisions within its powerful army, which may be experiencing one of its most challenging periods in 75 years.
Many analysts view the situation as resembling a war between the army chief and Khan, where one will eventually have to yield. However, some leading experts believe that Pakistan’s adversaries abroad are exacerbating the situation for their political gains by promoting conspiracy theories and blindly attacking the current military leadership without adequately considering Khan’s significant failures that have led to an economic downturn, a key reason behind political turmoil.
In a recent statement, Khan lamented: “There is no rule of law here; it is the complete law of the jungle, might is right, you can be picked up, and one man in this country decides whatever happens. It’s just one man.”
Despite being frequently labeled as a “selected” prime minister by his opponents, Khan has emerged as an influential political leader and a revered figure with an “army” of die-hard supporters. Furthermore, Pakistan’s collapsing economy, mounting unemployment, rampant corruption, escalating violence, and deepening polarization have burdened ordinary people with stress and hopelessness. This combination of factors has the potential to ignite a never-ending civil war in a nuclear-armed Pakistan. Therefore, the looming crisis in the country, characterized by a descent into chaos, presents a formidable challenge in preventing a possible civil war from unfolding.
Historical records of political events in Pakistan reveal an unfortunate truth: the establishment has consistently shaped and dismantled political parties since the country’s inception. Military dictators have labeled like-minded groups as “patriots” while branding opposition leaders as “tyrants” and “traitors.”
This pattern of branding politicians as traitors even extends to the “mother of the nation,” Ms. Fatima Jinnah. From the early days, the establishment has created, promoted and dissolved political parties, groups, media houses, religious cults and militant organizations.
Pakistan’s prominent political analyst, the late Gen. Hamid Gul, took responsibility for creating the Islami Jamhoori Ittehad (IJI), a political alliance allegedly formed to prevent Benazir Bhutto’s party from winning.
Undeniably, military dictator Gen. Ziaul Haq created the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM), while Gen. Pervez Musharraf further promoted it. Consequently, the nation witnessed when MQM workers raised slogans against Pakistan, leading to a DW report labeling it “A battle for Karachi.”
History seems to repeat itself as Khan accuses the establishment of orchestrating the departure of vital political aides within the Pakistan Justice Movement (PTI), also known as the justice movement party. Khan expressed to Reuters that “the nation will always remember” how senior members of his party “have exhibited resilience in the face of intense pressure to quit the party.”
These departing PTI political leaders will likely find refuge in other political parties, swiftly escaping corruption charges and enjoying prominent roles in new government formations supported by the establishment, a common occurrence in Pakistan.
Amid the mounting political crisis, Julia Horowitz’s argument that “Pakistan’s political crisis will deepen its economic misery” holds validity. Numerous studies support the notion that political instability and the economy are interconnected phenomena. For example, consider the studies exploring the relationship between poverty and civil war. Additionally, failed, collapsed, and weak states share common social, economic, moral and political indicators contributing to their decline.
Undoubtedly, Khan has dealt a blow to the backbone of Pakistan’s economy by alienating and polarizing the country’s disenfranchised, demoralized, and intolerant angry mobs, who spare no one who disagrees with them.
Recent protests have captured scores of videos in which close family members of prominent figures, including military generals, judiciary officials and media personalities, use abusive language against high-ranking individuals. For instance, a general’s wife called Gen Bajwa “canine.” Yet, shockingly, she walked away freely under the establishment’s current “software upgrade” scheme, in which powerful opponents are set free while the underprivileged are locked up.
In summary, while economies experience fluctuations, Pakistan’s next challenge lies in mending its brainwashed, polarized and unemployed youth, who are a valuable asset. Achieving this requires a concise formula for action.
All eyes are on Pakistan’s failing political system, mainly designed, supported, and arguably mostly promoted by the establishment, has come to its end. I spoke to all strands of worried people in society to seek a solution rather than prevailing criticism.
If the establishment is severe, it must follow basic ideas of equality and justice; without it, you cannot fix Pakistan's social, political, and economic problems.
In the coming years, the establishment must prioritize improving the economy by relinquishing luxurious lifestyles, extravagant protocols, and coveted post-retirement positions.
Numerous critics and experts have highlighted the extravagant lifestyles of judges, military officers, bureaucrats and top journalists. This observation has led to the realization that “colonialism still thrives in South Asia.”
Elliot Wilson astutely noted that Pakistan’s economy is dominated by a robust business conglomerate that controls a wide range of industries, from factories and bakeries to farmland and golf courses: the army.
While some may discredit such criticism, the reality is undeniable. Even trusted military generals like Hameed Gul and Shahid Aziz have openly acknowledged flaws within the institution and have advocated for addressing them internally.
Although many Pakistanis still place more trust in the army’s capabilities than corrupt and failed politicians, it is crucial to recognize that Pakistan is engaged in a battle for its survival against foreign-linked propagandists and invisible distant enemies seeking to destabilize the nation. Numerous major media outlets, experts and strategists believe Pakistan is “inches away” from civil unrest.
Extensive research has led me to propose a possible solution to Pakistan’s current political crisis and the prevention of a looming civil war. The resolution lies in implementing a uniform system for addressing corruption, starting with the country’s elite, including the establishment (police, judiciary, bureaucracy). In addition, justice should prevail at all levels, ensuring that even the most potent individuals face severe punishment for their wrongdoings.
If the authorities in high-ranking positions genuinely desire to curb upcoming unrest in Pakistan, three additional measures should be taken. Firstly, an official apology must be offered for the illegitimate state murder of Nawab Akbar Khan Bugti. Secondly, the mishandling and punishment of innocent civilians at the Red Mosque must be addressed. Lastly, efforts should be made to resolve the “missing people” cases in Baluchistan and other regions. Again, drawing inspiration from the “Turkish model” of civil-military relations can provide insights into achieving these goals.
By taking these steps, Pakistan can move toward a more just and equitable society, mitigating the risk of civil war and fostering stability and unity.
