During former U.S. President Joe Biden's era, Türkiye-U.S. relations have been marked by a cautious yet constructive approach, largely influenced by diplomatic channels. Both nations have successfully avoided major crises, demonstrating a mutual interest in maintaining a functional relationship. A key example of this evolving dynamic is Türkiye’s request to purchase F-16 fighter jets, which reflects both countries’ strategic interests. The Biden administration’s eventual approval of this deal signifies a positive step toward rebuilding trust and enhancing military cooperation.

The agreement encompasses the sale of 40 new F-16 Block 70 fighter jets and modernization kits for 79 existing jets, amounting to approximately $23 billion (the reported estimated costs indicate the maximum amount; contract values are generally lower). This deal not only strengthens Türkiye’s air capabilities but also reinforces NATO interoperability, as emphasized by U.S. officials who labeled it a significant investment in security partnerships. The smooth progression of this sale follows Türkiye's ratification of Sweden's NATO membership, which had been a critical condition for the U.S. to greenlight the transaction.

Türkiye's active role in mediating conflicts, such as the Russia-Ukraine war, showcases its importance as a regional stabilizer and partner in addressing global challenges. The country has sought to modernize its aging Air Force fleet, which includes over 200 older F-16 models. Procuring new F-16s is crucial for Türkiye as it bridges the gap while transitioning to domestically produced fifth-generation fighter jets, such as the KAAN, which performed its maiden flight earlier this year.

Unresolved cases

While significant issues such as Türkiye’s ties with Russia and its military actions in Syria remain unresolved, the overall trajectory of Türkiye-U.S. relations suggests a potential for collaboration grounded in shared interests. This relationship embodies a balancing act between strategic cooperation and ideological differences, highlighting Türkiye’s importance as a key ally in the region.

The dynamics of the forthcoming Türkiye-U.S. relationship will significantly depend on U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s commitment to engage with President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. This engagement is likely to be shaped by divergent views within the new foreign policy team, particularly from influential figures such as Marco Rubio and Mike Waltz, who maintain hardline stances toward Türkiye. Their skepticism, rooted in national security concerns and defense priorities, may impede efforts to cultivate a cooperative bilateral relationship.

For instance, Rubio’s opposition to U.S. arms sales to Türkiye due to its "human rights record" and "military actions in Syria" exemplifies the resistance the president-elect may face from key figures. Similarly, Waltz’s focus on countering perceived threats from Türkiye’s ties with Russia could complicate diplomatic overtures.

Ultimately, the interplay between Trump’s willingness to pursue diplomatic engagement and the pushback from these key figures will be crucial in determining the trajectory of Türkiye-U.S. relations in the coming years. A balanced approach that addresses both nations’ strategic interests while mitigating existing tensions may foster a more stable partnership moving forward.

The Trump administration recognized that a major obstacle to Turkish-American relations was the U.S. policy in Syria, particularly its support for the PKK's Syrian wing, the YPG. A shift toward more favorable actions for Türkiye could signal a new chapter in bilateral relations. For example, lifting the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) sanctions could enhance military cooperation and trade, fostering mutual interests.

Trump's previous administration showed a willingness to engage directly with Erdoğan, which may facilitate dialogue on contentious issues. Erdoğan has played a unique role as a mediator in the ongoing Ukraine crisis, skillfully balancing relations with both Ukraine and Russia, with whom Türkiye maintains strong military and trade ties. This strategic positioning has implications for U.S.-Türkiye relations, suggesting the potential for deeper cooperation in shared security objectives.

Notably, Trump is expected to endorse Türkiye’s mediation efforts in Ukraine. Former U.S. Ambassador James Jeffrey recently stated, "Türkiye has been a pioneering country in bringing Ukrainians and Russians to the table." He added, "Having worked closely with President Trump, I know he trusts and likes President Erdoğan and would likely look toward Ankara for support in advancing negotiations." This confidence in Türkiye’s diplomatic capacity highlights the possibility for both nations to align more closely in pursuit of regional stability.

For example, Rubio, who has often been critical of Türkiye, recently praised the effectiveness of Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones in Ukraine, recognizing their impact in disrupting Russian supply lines.

In this new era of NATO relations, Türkiye's role as a key player is underscored by its strategic location and military assets. The ongoing modernization of its air force through U.S.-made F-16s will bolster NATO's southern flank against potential threats from adversaries like Russia while reinforcing alliances within the transatlantic community.

As the Trump administration returns to power, the future of Türkiye's F-35 purchase process remains uncertain. Historically, the U.S. excluded Türkiye from the F-35 program in 2019 due to Ankara's acquisition of the Russian S-400 missile system, which Washington argued posed a risk to the advanced fighter jet's security.

Despite Türkiye's significant investment of approximately $1.4 billion in the program, its removal has left a gap in its military modernization efforts. Trump has previously expressed frustration over this situation, indicating that Türkiye was unfairly penalized for being forced into purchasing the S-400 system due to a lack of viable alternatives from the U.S. He has acknowledged that this impasse was a complicated issue and has hinted at a desire to resolve it.

In recent statements, Erdoğan has reiterated Türkiye's interest in acquiring advanced fighter jets, emphasizing that while the focus is currently on securing F-16s, the door remains open for discussions about F-35s. Türkiye is keen to recover its investment in the F-35 program and hopes that improved relations under Trump's administration could facilitate this process.

Pivotal crossroads

As Trump returns to office with an opportunity to reshape Türkiye-U.S. relations, particularly regarding defense collaboration within NATO, both nations stand at a pivotal crossroads. The potential for a renewed partnership hinges on addressing mutual interests while navigating existing tensions. Türkiye's strategic position and military capabilities are vital not only for its own national security but also for the broader stability of the region and NATO’s collective defense posture.

Trump's nomination of Pete Hegseth as Secretary of Defense may have positive implications for U.S.-Türkiye relations, particularly in the defense sector. Hegseth, known for his strong support of military initiatives and conservative values, could foster a more collaborative environment between the two nations, especially given Türkiye's strategic position within NATO.

Hegseth's military background and advocacy for robust defense policies could lead to increased support for Türkiye's ongoing efforts to modernize its military and participate actively in NATO missions. As Türkiye navigates complicated geopolitical challenges, including its relationships with Russia and its involvement in conflicts like the one in Syria, a supportive U.S. defense leadership could facilitate more effective collaboration on shared security interests.

As former U.S. President Ronald Reagan once said, "The future doesn't belong to the fainthearted; it belongs to the brave." This sentiment underscores the importance of bold diplomatic engagement and cooperation between Türkiye and the U.S. By embracing a forward-looking approach that prioritizes dialogue and shared strategic goals, both nations can work toward a more stable and prosperous future, enhancing their roles on the global stage while reinforcing their longstanding alliance.