Watching the elections unfold in Irbil, it’s clear that the 2024 Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) elections in Iraq's north are pivotal in Kurdish politics, revealing significant shifts in voter preferences and political power. The Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) suffered a notable decrease in parliamentary seats (45 seats in 2018, 40 seats in 2024) – while the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) saw a slight increase in support (21 seats in 2018 and 24 in 2024). The biggest blow to the PKK-affiliated political parties was to Goran, which won 12 parliamentary seats in 2018, but this year, it only won one seat. The party, closely affiliated with the PUK, lost significant support in Sulaymaniyah province, where it had previously enjoyed widespread support. In contrast, the New Generation party, a rising opposition force, gained unexpected momentum, significantly increasing its share of the vote, growing from eight seats in 2018 to 16 seats in this election.

KDP’s electoral gains

The KDP emerged as the clear winner in this election despite losing some of its seat count in parliament. This success can be attributed to several factors, including the party’s strong leadership under Masoud Barzani. Despite facing extensive criticism from the opposition, the party has focused on stability, economic growth and international relations. The KDP’s ability to maintain key relationships with Türkiye and Baghdad while emphasizing its commitment to improving public services resonated with voters weary of the region’s economic challenges. The KDP’s pragmatic approach to governance, its focus on infrastructure development, and its promises to boost foreign investment played well, particularly in urban areas like Irbil and Duhok, where the party has traditionally enjoyed strong support. This strategy has been strongly reflected in voter turnout in both provinces.

Moreover, the KDP capitalized on the internal disarray within the PUK. Voters in the KRG are increasingly disillusioned with the PUK’s leadership, particularly its inability to present a unified front. The PUK’s association with the PKK, a designated terrorist organization, further alienated voters who view the PKK as a destabilizing factor. This dissatisfaction with the PUK and the KDP’s campaign focused on stability and economic progress helped the KDP win 40 parliamentary seats.

PUK’s decline

The PUK’s loss of seats in the regional Kurdish parliament reflects broader dissatisfaction with its leadership and policies. Under Bafel Talabani, the PUK has struggled to maintain unity, facing internal splits and leadership challenges. Additionally, the PUK’s ties to the PKK have raised concerns among voters who prioritize security and economic stability. The PUK has been perceived as increasingly out of touch with voter concerns, particularly in areas like Sulaymaniyah, where economic hardship has been more pronounced and PKK terror operates freely. This is one of the main reasons why Türkiye extended its ban on flights from Sulaymaniyah until December. The PUK’s aggressive campaign strategy, including its confrontational rhetoric toward the KDP, may have further alienated moderate voters. While the PUK tried to position itself as a strong opposition force, it failed to address internal divisions or distance itself from the PKK.

Rise of New Generation Movement

One of the most surprising outcomes of the 2024 KRG elections was the strong performance of the New Generation party, which significantly increased its seat count. Led by Shaswar Abdulwahid, New Generation positioned itself as a fresh alternative to the established parties, appealing to younger voters and those disillusioned with the KDP-PUK political duopoly.

New Generation’s success is due to its clear messaging on corruption, youth unemployment and political reform. In a region where many feel that the KDP and PUK have long dominated politics without delivering meaningful change, New Generation's calls for transparency and accountability struck a chord with voters. The party built a reputation for challenging the status quo and advocating for greater government accountability, which resonates with a population frustrated by the region’s economic difficulties and political stagnation.

Furthermore, New Generation’s success reflects broader shifts in Kurdish society, where younger generations are becoming more politically active and are demanding change. The movement’s ability to connect with this demographic, combined with its focus on social justice issues, helped it gain substantial support in urban areas, particularly in Sulaymaniyah, a PUK stronghold.

With the KDP gaining more political power, it's likely the party will make a renewed push to secure a more favorable deal on oil revenue distribution with Baghdad. The KRG has long struggled to receive its full share of the federal budget, which is crucial for funding public services and paying government salaries. The KDP, with its strong negotiating position and better relations with Baghdad, may be able to secure a more stable and consistent flow of funds, helping to alleviate some of the economic pressures the region faces.

However, the internal political divisions between the KDP and PUK could complicate these negotiations. The PUK’s control over oil-rich Sulaymaniyah remains a critical factor, and any attempt by the KDP to centralize control over oil revenues could lead to further political fragmentation within the KRG.

Fight against PKK

The KDP’s strong stance against the PKK will likely lead to intensified efforts to root out the group from Kurdish territory in Iraq's north. The PKK has been a longstanding issue for both the KRG and neighboring Türkiye, and the KDP’s close relationship with Türkiye will result in increased military operations against the PKK in the region. This becomes even clearer when accounting for the recent increase in coordination between Ankara, Irbil and Baghdad on security-related issues.

While this approach may strengthen the KRG’s security and its relations with Türkiye, it could also lead to further internal tensions, particularly in PUK-controlled areas where the PKK has more freedom to operate. The KDP must carefully balance its security concerns with the potential for unrest in areas that may resist such a reality.

Encouraging foreign investment

The KDP’s emphasis on creating a more favorable environment for foreign investment could prove crucial in revitalizing the KRG’s economy. The KRG has long relied on oil revenues to sustain its economy, but with global oil markets fluctuating, the region needs to diversify its economic base. The KDP’s business-friendly policies, coupled with its strong relationships with foreign powers, particularly Türkiye and Western countries, could attract much-needed investment in sectors like tourism, agriculture, construction, and technology.

The Development Road Project, a $17 billion large-scale infrastructure initiative to create a road and rail transportation network that links the port city of Basra with Europe through Türkiye, presents a significant opportunity for the KRG. The KDP’s political dominance puts it in a strong position to ensure that the Kurdish region plays a central role in this project, which could boost economic growth and create jobs. However, ensuring that the benefits of such projects are evenly distributed across the region will be key to avoiding further political fragmentation.

While the KDP’s victory provides an opportunity for greater political stability and economic growth, it also brings new challenges. The KDP must navigate internal political divisions, manage its relationship with Baghdad, and balance security concerns to maintain unity within the KRG. At the same time, the rise of the New Generation signals a growing desire for change among the Kurdish population, particularly younger voters demanding greater accountability and transparency from their leaders.

Ultimately, the KRG's success in addressing these challenges will depend on its leaders working together and prioritizing the needs of the Kurdish people over political rivalries. The 2024 election results provide a roadmap for the future, but much will depend on how the region’s political leaders choose to act in the months and years ahead.