In the last decade or so, political turmoil and the resulting power vacuums in certain parts of Africa and the Arab world have forced many long-serving rulers and dictators to flee their countries, lose their lives or retreat into obscurity within their nations. It remains uncertain whether these developments are for good or ill, but a similar phenomenon appears to be unfolding in parts of South Asia.

Some time ago, many were struck by dramatic images of then-serving Afghan President Ashraf Ghani fleeing the country in August 2021. Then, in July 2022, a similar scene unfolded when Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa secretly left the country in the wake of massive protests against the economic collapse. This pattern was replicated on Aug. 5, 2024, in Dhaka, the capital city of Bangladesh, where the longest-serving ruler in the country’s history, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, fled the country after millions filled the streets chanting "Go back, go back!" and "Down with the dictator!" Despite her initial disdain for the protesters and reluctance to step down, Sheikh Hasina eventually succumbed to people’s rage and resigned from her post. While she absconded via helicopter, large-scale vandalism has been taking place across the country.

Scenes preceding and following the departure of these rulers from South Asian nations were strikingly similar. The removal of every ruler was accompanied not only by celebration and amusement but also by looting and vandalism. Additionally, a sense of people's victory prevailed, which was seen as a reinforcement of the political principle of popular sovereignty. In Dhaka, people were seen climbing over the statues of the founder of the state, Mujibur Rahman, who is also Sheikh Hasina’s father, hammering and demolishing them in an outburst of anger rarely witnessed in this part of the world.

Beginning of the end

It all began with a low-key student protest against the controversial decision of the High Court to restore the 30% quota in government jobs for the descendants of the freedom fighters of the 1971 Liberation War of Bangladesh. Although this quota system was abolished by Hasina’s Awami League government in 2018, which has been serving its fourth and last consecutive term, perhaps to stay in the good graces of the political elites in the corridors of power, the High Court decided to reinstate the quota system. However, given the mounting fury on the streets against the decision, the highest court of the country overruled it on July 21, reducing the quota to only 5%. This decision led to a temporary lull but soon reemerged as a major street protest. Within a week, the whole protests swelled into a pan-nationalist movement demanding nothing less than the ouster of Sheikh Hasina.

The government’s failure was on full display throughout the month-long protest as the police and the armed forces clashed with the protestors in various parts of the country. Some media reports suggest that more than 300 civilians, including police officers, lost their lives in street violence. Only two days before Hasina’s departure, amidst the peak of the protest, 100 people were killed in one single day. What transformed the protest into a violent demand for Hasina’s removal was her political stubbornness and high-handedness of the state machinery. Adding salt to the wound, Hasina herself referred to the protestors as "Razakar" (a pejorative term in political parlance used to describe those who collaborated with enemies of Bangladesh’s freedom struggle).

More than a quota system

Perhaps it would be politically incorrect to attribute the momentous demonstration solely to the quota system, but the reasons for this march of millions lie in the pursuit of autocratic policy, intolerance of dissent, and the projection of Hasina herself as the embodiment of the nation and the state. Anyone following the economic and political trajectory under her 15-year rule would notice that the nation witnessed an unprecedented economic boom. On the other hand, political freedom and civil liberties were diminishing and all civic and political voices that differed from the echo chamber created by the ruling clique were gradually eliminated.

The boycott of the two consecutive general elections in 2018 and 2024 by the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), headed by Khaleda Zia, the wife of another stalwart figure of Bangladeshi politics, Ziaur Rahman, speaks volumes about the current political landscape in the country. Zia has been under house arrest since 2018, despite suffering from multiple illnesses, on charges of corruption and economic embezzlement. This situation is a living testimony to the political model Hasina has constructed to serve her political objectives and prevent her opponents from entering the political arena.

What really triggered the situation to its current level seems to be the constant suppression of dissent and the fading appeal of the development narrative perpetuated by the government. The outbreak of COVID-19 diminished the level of prosperity achieved in the past decade. Today, export-centered textile industries, which are the backbone of the national economy, are in poor shape. The last few years have witnessed a series of strikes over low wages and exports have declined due to the global economic slowdown. The government has struggled to maintain the past pace of 7% annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth and the threefold increase in per capita income that lifted around 25 million people out of poverty. Over the years, the past economic growth failed to meet the aspirations of the youth, plunging the country into a deep financial crisis. Rampant corruption and a new form of economic oligarchy have emerged, with full patronage from Hasina, her political cohorts and senior government officials.

Under Hasina’s 15-year rule, most notably since her last tenure, the majority of the opposition leaders are either languishing in jail or have fled abroad, including the son of Khalida Zia, Tarique Rahman, who has been in self-exile in London for years. Many prominent leaders of Islamist groups, known to be allies of BNP, were arrested and several were executed in recent years on charges of collaborating with the Pakistani army during the liberation of 1971. Various regional and global rights groups have accused Hasina’s government of misusing state institutions and the regular political crackdowns against opposition members, which has driven many into hiding.

A nation's resolve

Soon after the downfall of Sheikh Hasina’s government, countless commentaries and analyses emerged from both inside and outside Bangladesh. Some frame this event as an Islamist upsurge, while others place Hasina’s departure within the context of global geopolitics. However, these perspectives tend to overlook people’s own will and courage in making this revolution happen. The power of student movements in Bangladesh has never been a secret. Their role in the 1952 Language Movement against the imposition of Urdu as a national language is well documented and their role in the war of liberation is remembered.

The parliament elected in January has been dissolved and an interim government under the Nobel laureate and renowned economist Mohammad Yunus has been formed. However, steering the nation through the current uncertainty will not be without challenges. Reports of sporadic violence against Awami League cadres are still emerging and many members of parliament, including ministers from the Awami League, have left the country fearing for their lives. Additionally, some of the homes belonging to Hasina’s party members have been set on fire. Amongst many other challenges, the immediate ones would be restoring law and order, preventing the country from sliding into ideological and political divisions and avoiding the politics of vendetta.

After restoring political stability and regaining the people's trust in the state and its institutions, a fair and transparent election should be held, allowing all political parties, regardless of their ideological or confessional affiliations, to participate. This will enable the election of a leader who can ensure both economic prosperity and political freedom for the nation.