As per media reports, French President Emmanuel Macron is scheduled to visit Berlin in early July. This highly anticipated visit has assumed inordinate significance because it marks the first official state visit to Germany by a French president after 23 years.
The intricate tapestry of French-German relations has long been woven with threads of closeness and camaraderie, evident through the regular government consultations and the ceaseless exchange of ideas between their leaders.
Macron's visit, though not his maiden trip to Germany, has assumed an unprecedented level of prominence, owing to drastic changes in the power equilibrium of Europe after Russia’s intrusion into Ukraine in February. 2022. France and Germany, once the pillars of European integration, have experienced a strained relationship in recent times. Divergences between the two nations have grown increasingly conspicuous, particularly in areas such as energy and defense.
Tensions escalated to the extent that a German-French ministerial meeting scheduled for last October was postponed, sparking fears of a potential breakdown in their alliance.
However, amid mounting internal and external challenges, the decision by both sides to prioritize the "strengthening of friendship" at this critical juncture indicates recognition of the urgency and indispensability of unity and collaboration.
Following Russia's incursion into Ukraine in February 2022, Europe experienced a seismic shift in its geopolitical landscape. The European Union and NATO responded with unprecedented cohesion, rendering the old conflicts within these alliances seemingly obsolete in the face of continental warfare.
Yet, beneath the surface of this newfound unity, simmering tensions persist within the European Union. This reality is widely acknowledged in the bloc's largest and most influential member states, Germany and France, as their once-strong partnership is increasingly strained, highlighting the growing divergence between the two nations on various critical issues.
In the complicated fabric of French-German relations, opposing views on crucial policy matters have woven a complex narrative. From their stance on NATO and ties with the United States to the contrasting approaches to energy supply (nuclear versus renewables), European space technology, joint arms procurement, and the scope of the bloc's defense capabilities, Germany and France find themselves at odds.
However, this intricate dance between two nations, so strikingly alike and yet inherently distinct, has never been a tale of simplicity. The nuances and divergences within their relationship serve as a constant reminder of the intricacies that define their shared history.
The French-German equation is laced with a deep-seated lack of trust that persists in crucial domains encompassing geopolitics, defense, security, and economic and industrial policies. The romanticized narrative of the historic friendship between these two nations, forged in the aftermath of World War II, masks a reality of persistent competition and rivalry.
Nevertheless, this complex dynamic has not hindered their collaboration as close partners within the Western alliance, nor impeded their joint initiatives at the European Union level, exemplified by the significant Aachen Treaty of 2019. The intricate interplay of camaraderie and contention defines the essence of the French-German relationship.
The present “friction” between Germany and France is driven by a confluence of short-term factors. These include the mounting frustration over the sluggish progress on defense cooperation, divergent strategies toward China, the response to the energy crisis, and the imminent reform of the growth and stability pact.
Moreover, this tumultuous phase unfolds amidst a backdrop of domestic challenges faced by both the German chancellor and the French president. Chancellor Scholz finds himself at the helm of a delicate coalition, while Macron grapples with a divided parliament bereft of a clear majority. The convergence of these circumstances has intensified the strain on their already complex relationship.
Macron's re-election in France fell short of securing an outright majority in the National Assembly, as the far-left and far-right factions have witnessed notable upswings in momentum.
On the other hand, Scholz's primary concerns revolve around maintaining unity within his coalition and safeguarding Germany's economy. The greatest challenge facing Scholz lies in the Free Democrats, the smallest party in his coalition, as they grapple for political survival.
Since the federal election in September 2021, the party has faced expulsion from three state parliaments and now faces the risk of defeat in upcoming elections in Bavaria and Hesse. Should the liberals falter, Scholz's government would face collapse.
The Ukraine crisis, apart from bringing EU and NATO closer, has also inversely served as a catalyst in augmenting historical divisions between Eastern and Western Europe. Within the 27 EU member states, France, Germany, and Italy collectively account for more than half of the gross domestic product (GDP), while the 11 Central and Eastern European countries contribute just over 10%.
Faced with the challenges posed by the Ukraine crisis, many Central and Eastern European nations are inclined to rely on the U.S.-led NATO rather than building their own defense capabilities, an approach that also hints at an intention to balance the power of France and Germany.
If this trajectory persists, the divisions within Europe could unravel the decades of integration achieved thus far. Following Brexit, Europe finds itself once again at a crucial crossroads, where the choice between unity and fragmentation weighs heavily on the shoulders of France and Germany, burdened by the weight of history.
The underlying roots of the current bilateral challenges between France and Germany run deep. Both countries have long held different perspectives on their role within Europe and on the global stage. France perceives itself as a medium power with a global outlook, whereas Germany has traditionally assumed a more continental and mercantilist stance.
Consequently, Germany has prioritized its relationship with the United States and NATO to ensure its security, while France has advocated for an independent role for both itself and Europe in world affairs. This vision has culminated under Macron, who has championed the concepts of European sovereignty and strategic autonomy.
Furthermore, Germany has historically emphasized economic and trade interests, while France's approach is more focused on security and geopolitical considerations. These fundamental differences have persistently existed.
Despite the high-profile meetings between Macron and U.S. President Joe Biden, as well as the joint visit of French and German economy ministers to the United States, there remains a troubling reality: "The Inflation Reduction Act" undermines European autonomy.
This lack of independence stands in stark contrast to the original goals of integration advocated by France and Germany, leaving these two supposed EU leaders deeply concerned.
However, with the forthcoming Scholz-Macron meeting, it seems that France and Germany have started to realize that only by bridging their differences and reigniting cooperation can they navigate their way out of the current impasse. The history of European integration has demonstrated that smooth progress is rare, ebbs and flows are the norm.
In fact, crises often serve as catalysts for advancing integration. The German side's statement, acknowledging the visit as a tribute to the strong friendship between the two nations on the 60th anniversary of the Elysee Treaty, underscores the anticipation surrounding the revitalization of France-Germany relations and the hope for a rejuvenated Europe.
