In a dramatic twist, neither President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan nor his main opponent Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu cleared the 50% threshold, propelling Türkiye into a captivating runoff for the presidential elections.

While Erdoğan took the lead in the first round, the outcomes of parliamentary elections followed a similar pattern. Amidst the weight of a 21-year-long rule, the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) triumphantly secured over 35% of the votes. The AK Party-led People Alliance, which also consists of the Nationalist Movement Party (MHP), the New Welfare Party (YRF), and the Great Union Party (BBP), defied many pollsters' forecasts and secured the majority of seats in the grand arena of Parliament. This resounding victory propelled the People Alliance to ascend to a commanding 50% share, with more than 322 potential lawmakers. President Erdoğan, with unwavering confidence, confidently strides toward the second round.

While we must remember the potential surprises that the unpredictable nature of politics and the floating vote can bring, we can still make some educated guesses about the outcome of the second round. Nevertheless, regardless of the absolute result, the true victor of these elections transcends individual candidates and parties, as the resounding triumph of nationalism resonates not only within Türkiye but also reverberates across the global stage.

Amid the vibrant election campaign, we bore witness to the divine ascent of debates centering around the enigmatic question: Who is the true nationalist? As the waves of nationalism surged across the globe, propelled by the turbulent era of Donald Trump's Presidency in the United States, its resolute tides naturally found resonance in the heartland of Türkiye. This nation has been combating terrorism for countless years.

The elections held on May 14, which marked the third election in history with the highest voter turnout in the past 40 years, with participation reaching around 88% domestically, were declared a "grand feast of democracy."

Within the realm of my perception, while the democratic essence prevails, the reverberating symphony of election outcomes assumes paramount importance, delivering a persistent message to the political elite: the indomitable spirit of Türkiye's nationalist electorate must never be underestimated, for it holds transformative power.

Surprising success of MHP

Despite facing relentless criticism from its followers and enduring intense political polarization, the MHP's success has astounded some pollsters, securing 10.07% of the votes. The party chaired by Devlet Bahçeli, which largely preserved its voter support, finished the electoral race as the third-largest party regarding vote percentage and the fourth-largest regarding seat count. Contrary to expectations, the MHP's decision to run on a separate ballot proved successful, strengthening the party's pivotal position in Parliament.

As approximately 3% of voters dissatisfied with the AK Party shifted outside the alliance, the MHP, within the coalition, successfully retained a significant portion of the protest votes against the government, serving as a "safety valve."

Confident analysts perceived the results as a glorious affirmation of the MHP's strategic prowess, wherein their thoughtful approach found harmonious resonance among the electorate. Moreover, the remarkable support garnered by the MHP, standing at 10%, the New Welfare Party's (YRP) impressive 2.8% and the BBP's steadfast 1% also showcase the triumphant synergy of parties marching alongside Erdoğan.

IP's position

In addition to the MHP's unexpected success, the center-right Good Party (IP), part of the opposition bloc known as the Nation Alliance, also received nearly 5.27 million votes. Although pre-election polls predicted higher voter support for the IP, the party's fluctuating and indecisive stance in recent months drew criticism from both its own base and other opposition voters, signaling potential vote loss.

After partially including the Green Left Party (YSP) in the coalition talks and IP Chair Meral Akşener's harsh criticism following the announcement of Kılıçdaroğlu's candidacy, the IP faced significant criticism. There were intense internal debates within the party and one of the party's heavyweights, Yavuz Ağıralioğlu, left the party after his scathing remarks. These criticisms manifested the tension caused by the party's participation in the sextet talks and the party leader's controversial statements.

Sinan Oğan and Victory Party

The Victory Party (Zafer Partisi) was among the incredible success stories in the parliamentary elections. Led by Ümit Özdağ, known for his strong remarks on refugees, the party secured approximately 1.2 million votes. Furthermore, as part of the small ATA Alliance, the party achieved a vote of 2.44%.

What differentiates the MHP from the Victory Party is that, as they are both nationalist parties, the MHP takes a more neutral stance on refugees, while the Victory Party has been at the forefront of the anti-refugee outlook in Türkiye. Moreover, due to its alliance with the AK Party, the MHP had to take a neutral stance regarding refugees because of the Erdoğan government’s previous agreement with the European Union on settling refugees in Türkiye.

Özdağ's party, on the other hand, has appealed to the fringes of the political spectrum, especially on the far-right, but also they appealed to the mainstream in a sense to people who have some serious concerns concerning over the settlement of refugees in Türkiye, which Özdağ claims it’s at the very center of all problems in Türkiye. For instance, Özdağ claims that rising inflation, rising rents, cost of living and security issues are all caused by refugees. So, his unwavering stance on refugees has won him a lot of votes hovering at around 2 million.

The ATA Alliance's supported presidential candidate, Sinan Oğan, emerged as a prominent figure representing the "middle ground" between the two poles following Homeland Party (MP) Chair Muharrem Ince's withdrawal. Oğan's nationalist rhetoric resonated with voters, and with more than 2.82 million votes in the first round, he gained a pivotal position for the second round of the presidential elections. The ultra-nationalist candidate is currently reveling in the prospect of being in the spotlight as he cast himself as a potential kingmaker.

It is worth mentioning Ince, again. Throughout the campaign, Ince constantly conflicted with the opposition bloc and announced his withdrawal from the race just four days before the elections. Yet, despite his withdrawal, Ince, who identifies himself as "an adherent of Atatürk's principles," "a true nationalist," and "a child of this nation," still received more than 238,000 votes.

The Fall of the HDP

In another surprising turn, the Green Left Party (YSP) emerged as one of the "unsuccessful" participants in the election.

Formed initially as the Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP), the party joined the race at the 11th hour as a precautionary measure to avoid potential closure due to an ongoing lawsuit concerning alleged links with the PKK terrorist group. However, despite its rebranding, the party witnessed a decline in support, with its vote share slipping to 8.8% from the 11% it garnered in the previous election. Moreover, the YSP did not have a strong enough impact at the ballot box to sway the election in Kılıçdaroğlu's favor.

As the People's Alliance triumphantly clinched the majority and the HDP/YSP dwindled to a mere 8%, any claims of the YSP holding a pivotal role faded into oblivion. Then, in a stunning turn, the prospect of victory became crystal clear: Any candidate or party aligned with the YSP and left-wing Kurdish nationalists would face an inevitable defeat.

Nationalists dominate Parliament

Looking at the current landscape, we can see that the nationalist camp, representing more than 55% of the total in Parliament, is stronger than ever. Therefore, it is quite possible to say that the dynamics of the election were directly influenced by nationalism, as both President Erdoğan and the candidate of the Nation Alliance, Kılıçdaroğlu, competed to win the support of Turkish nationalist voters, including Ince and Oğan. Furthermore, when evaluating the results, it becomes apparent that a more significant segment than expected, including a portion of the CHP and IP voter base, actually voted for Erdoğan instead of what was initially assumed, creating a ripple effect in his favor.

A significant portion seems to have been unsettled by the overt support given to Kılıçdaroğlu by the PKK and FETÖ. The People’s Alliance has repeatedly accused Kılıçdaroğlu of this and Akşener of sitting at the same "table" as the pro-PKK HDP, aka the YSP.

Considering that many politicians from both sides have accused the CHP of distancing itself from Atatürk nationalism, it can be argued that Kılıçdaroğlu faced a political-ideological dilemma. While Kılıçdaroğlu attempted to appeal to the voters of Ince and Oğan by linking his nationalism claims to the issue of Syrian refugees, the election results demonstrated that his rhetoric was not perceived as sincere by Turkish nationalists among voters. Moreover, the relentless anti-Erdoğan crusade orchestrated by the Western media has further contributed to the accusations leveled against Kılıçdaroğlu, branding him as a Western sympathizer and a betrayer of nationalism.

In my humble opinion, the veritable triumph of this election can be attributed to the spirit of nationalism. Undoubtedly, the most significant outcome of the election is the nationalist electorate exerting its weight on the political equations. The nationalist voters will shape the second round on May 28.

Now, the time for romanticism has lost its significance. It is high time to remove the rosy lenses and embrace realism. Politicians must humbly don their thinking caps and contemplate their positions rather than pointing fingers at the electorate, refugees or media outlets.

In light of these intricate dynamics, instead of simply marveling at Erdoğan's triumph, even in the quake-hit districts, perhaps the time has come to delve into the depths of the underlying causes and embark upon a voyage of contemplation.