Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s return to power has raised concerns about the future of Muslims in South Asia and Palestine, given his administration’s previous policies impacting Muslim communities. There are apprehensions about potential continued challenges for Indian Muslims, who, according to professor Archana Venkatesh, may feel a regression to colonial-era conditions.

A series of notable incidents include the Gujarat 2002 riots, the Citizenship Amendment Act excluding Muslims, the revocation of Kashmir’s special status via Article 370, the conversion of Muslim monuments and mosques into temples, and instances of Muslim misrepresentation and violence against Muslims by certain groups. These issues have contributed to a climate of fear among Indian Muslims.

Recently, there has been a paradigm shift in Indian media and political discourse, portraying Muslims as threats, disloyal, outsiders, infiltrators and radical terrorists.

During Modi’s previous term, even Bollywood, traditionally a promoter of social cohesion, shifted toward more nationalistic and anti-Muslim narratives. Author Nilosree Biswas notes that post-partition Indian films often portrayed Muslims positively, but the rise of Hindu nationalism has normalized less friendly depictions. This trend is evident in films like "Mission Majnu" and "Pathaan," which have been criticized for Islamophobic themes.

Experts suggest that these narratives may contribute to a broader agenda of shaping public perception and political objectives, such as promoting the concept of a Hindu-centric India.

Many scholars and media experts are concerned about the global implications of Modi’s third term, especially for India’s 200 million Muslims, who fear increased persecution. The geopolitical landscape closely watches Modi’s next moves, particularly regarding India’s relations with neighboring countries like China and Pakistan.

Modi's doctrine

Now that India's "popular but polarising leader" Modi has returned to power for the third consecutive time, experts have begun debating and discussing his third term. A fundamental question is, "What’s next for Modi’s foreign policy?" Daniel Markey notes that "a muscular nationalism appears widely popular beyond the BJP faithful" when it comes to India’s foreign policy.

There is a noticeable shift in India, with a strong desire to take on a more assertive regional role. Modi's approach seems to draw inspiration from American and Israeli leadership styles. Some observers have pointed to controversial incidents involving Sikh leaders in Canada and the United States, as well as actions in Pakistan, as indicative of this assertive stance. Additionally, allegations of supplying weapons to Israel have been noted.

The prospect of another India-Pakistan conflict over Kashmir is a topic of discussion among Indian commentators, including retired generals like Gen. V.P. Malik and Maj. Gen. B. D. Bakshi, who believe that India should take a more aggressive stance regarding Pakistan-administered Kashmir.

Recent TV shows have featured right-wing nationalist anchors and retired military officers, such as Gaurav Arya, advocating for strong measures against Pakistan, including crossing the international border. This rhetoric reflects a policy approach reminiscent of the American "Bush Doctrine," which emphasizes preemptive action and the notion that "If you are not with us, you are against us."

These developments highlight the evolving dynamics of India’s foreign policy under Modi’s leadership and raise questions about future regional stability.

The prospect of increased tensions between India and Pakistan is conceivable, particularly as Modi appears more focused on his vision of "Akhand Bharat." This vision depicts a unified territory spanning across South Asia, from Afghanistan to Myanmar, embracing Sri Lanka in the South and extending to the towering Himalayas in the North, including parts of China and Iran.

To pursue this vision, Modi seems to be taking cues from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is facing an arrest warrant over his "war crimes" in Gaza.

Modi and Palestine

Regarding Palestine, Modi’s strong pro-Israel stance marks a departure from Mahatma Gandhi’s policies, which supported Palestinian self-determination. As Gaza faces ongoing conflict, Modi’s alliance with Israel is seen as influencing far-right movements in India. The parallels between the situations in Kashmir and Palestine underscore the shared experiences of these regions.

Arjun Sengupta's investigation reveals that Mahatma Gandhi sympathized deeply with the plight of the Jewish people in Europe but opposed Zionist efforts to forcibly create a state in Palestine, which was already inhabited by Palestinian Arabs.

For over seven decades, both Kashmir and Palestine have faced continuous persecution, leading to a growing solidarity in their shared struggle against inhumane treatment, often referred to as "The Story of Two Occupations."

Amid ongoing genocide in Gaza, Modi has forged a military alliance with Israel, which some argue is indicative of increasing support from India's far-right groups who are influenced by Israel's approach.

Recent analyses suggest parallels between Kashmir and Palestine, with comparisons drawn to Israel's governance in Palestine.

The future remains uncertain for India's stances on Pakistan and Palestine under Modi's leadership, despite his slim majority and facing significant opposition. Will India align with European nations like Ireland, Spain and Norway in recognizing Palestine as a state? Or will Modi continue supporting Israel with military aid, potentially leading to further violence against unarmed Palestinians? Moreover, there are concerns about the possibility of military actions against Pakistan.

The world watches closely to see if Modi pursues peace or leans toward more destructive policies. Only time will reveal the path he chooses.