The end of the road is now in sight for France, which has maintained its military presence and influence in Africa for a long time. African countries have increasingly begun to terminate long-standing security and defense agreements with France and demand the withdrawal of French military bases from their territories. This process, which accelerated in the early 2020s, has led to the gradual handover of French military bases. Military coups, particularly in the Sahel region, have fueled anti-French sentiment, spreading opposition to the French military presence across other countries in the region.
Following Mali, Burkina Faso, Ivory Coast, Chad and Senegal announced in November 2024 that they had terminated their long-standing military cooperation agreements with France. This development signaled that France, which had been a dominant player in African affairs for decades, was now losing its foothold and needed to end its military presence in these countries. France has already completed its troop withdrawals from Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso and is gradually pulling out its remaining military assets from the continent.
France’s colonial past on the African continent plays a significant role in this shift. This process, which can be described as an "African awakening," has seen African nations increasingly reject France’s post-colonial influence in the region. The termination of military and security cooperation agreements and the withdrawal of French military assets have not only diminished France’s military influence but also led to a decline in its diplomatic presence. Although French President Emmanuel Macron declared at the 30th Ambassadors’ Conference in Paris in early January 2025 that France was not retreating from Africa but rather reorganizing, the reduction in diplomatic missions, alongside the military withdrawal, clearly demonstrates the country's declining influence on the continent.
Contrary to Macron’s assertions, many African nations believe that they can safeguard their sovereignty without French support. Beyond that, there is a growing perception that France’s military presence and influence have contributed to political instability and even supported coup attempts aimed at overthrowing governments. African nations seeking to distance themselves from France are not only ending military cooperation agreements, shutting down military bases, and reducing diplomatic missions but also striving for linguistic autonomy. In countries where French has historically been dominant, efforts are being made to promote local languages as part of a broader rejection of the colonial legacy.
As France struggles to maintain its influence, new players have emerged on the continent. While Russia and China have significantly increased their presence in Africa, Türkiye has also strengthened its ties with the region. Türkiye’s strategy, based on mutual respect, equal sovereignty and shared economic growth, has been well received by African nations. Türkiye aims to establish a long-term and sustainable relationship with Africa, providing political, military and diplomatic support – particularly in counterterrorism efforts. Expanding trade relations is also a key aspect of Türkiye’s Africa policy. As France becomes increasingly unwelcome in Africa, Türkiye has positioned itself as a valuable partner, offering an alternative approach that adds value to the continent. Türkiye has also played a key mediating role in conflict resolution. The Ankara Declaration, which facilitated a diplomatic resolution between Ethiopia and Somalia, has set an example for other African nations facing regional disputes.
Meanwhile, France is also experiencing significant political and military shifts. Domestically, the country faces serious political crises and instability. Successive elections have failed to produce stable governments, economic challenges remain unresolved, and the far right is on the rise. Moreover, France’s strategic priorities are shifting within Europe as the continent faces new security challenges under President Donald Trump's administration in the United States. The U.S.’ decision to scale back security guarantees for Europe – particularly regarding the Russia-Ukraine war – has pushed European nations to increase their own military spending. In this new security landscape, European countries, particularly France, have begun focusing on establishing an independent security framework separate from the U.S. and NATO. This strategic shift signals a decline in France’s role as a security provider for other regions.
In the face of growing global uncertainty in the Trump 2.0 era, the decision by many African nations to terminate military agreements and reduce their ties with France appears to be well-timed. As France loses its traditional sphere of influence in Africa, its priorities have shifted toward securing its own national and regional stability. Additionally, the stance of African countries against French intervention reflects a broader effort to break free from the colonial order, assert new forms of sovereignty, and develop self-sufficient capacities to manage their own resources.
In this new era, France will seek to establish a different type of relationship to compensate for its declining influence and military presence in Africa. As Macron has emphasized, this requires reorganizing relations with Africa in alignment with the new realities on the ground and the sentiments of African nations. However, France’s efforts to replace military power and diplomatic networks with various nongovernmental and youth organizations are unlikely to erase its historical legacy of exploitation and destabilization in the region. It should be noted that reasserting its influence in Africa will not be easy, especially in a context where France must now prioritize its own security without relying on support from other countries or international organizations.
