As the Ukraine war saunters into the second year, and despite both sides commemorating the first anniversary of the war with dueling speeches by U.S. President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin, many political pundits and analysts have suddenly started talking about the possibility of conversion of this hotspot into a “frozen conflict.” The central tenet of their argument is that the conflict, owing to various factors, has entered a phase of paralytic halt from both sides and it will drag on this way for a few more years before reaching a decisive finale.
The proponents of the frozen conflict narrative rely on three points while pleading their case. One, since August, Russia has not been able to move further beyond the Donetsk, Luhansk and Donbas regions, and is actually being pushed back from some of the captured towns. The second point is pertaining to the failure of Putin’s plan to inflict the harshest and darkest winter upon Ukraine – and the rest of Europe as well – by cutting gas supplies. Besides, Russia’s incessant aerial attacks also failed to cause any major damage to the infrastructure of Ukraine. Putin was hoping that impediments in supplies of gas, and the destruction of grids and energy distribution systems would shove the Kyiv government to its knees, but it did not happen.
The advocates of frozen conflict further argue that Putin was also expecting that the United States and its European allies would soon lose interest and will gradually start squeezing their wallets in a bid to eventually abandon Ukraine. Nothing of the sort has happened. Everything has gone against Putin’s calculations. Winter has been relatively milder this year, and Washington and European capitals have intensified their financial and military support to Ukraine. The third point of argument is that Putin, in view of these setbacks, is now asking his close aides to prepare for a long war – at least two to three years.
Factually speaking, the frozen-conflict theory does have some merits; however, still it is too early to predict the future course of the Ukraine war because two critical factors are being discounted in this debate on frozen conflict.
First, the new financial and military package pledged by the U.S. and NATO allies recently will enormously enhance the capacity of the Ukrainian forces to push back the Russians. We have witnessed that the Ukrainian army has the capability to effectively purge the Russians out of the occupied territories provided they have sufficient weapons – Bakhmut and Kharkiv are lucid examples. Once the new installment of military hardware starts reaching Ukraine, including advanced heavy tanks Leopard 2, M1 Abrams and Challenger 2, Ukrainian President Vlodomyr Zelenskyy will certainly initiate his campaign to drive the Russians out of the occupied territories with a renewed passion.
Zelenskyy’s highly successful trip to Washington and Western Europe, where he was showered with pledges for generous financial and military support, followed by President Biden’s surprise stopover in Kyiv, has emboldened him to think about pushing back the Russians from some of the territories. At the same time, Zelenskyy's recent decision to expel the corrupt and inefficient officials will also strengthen his position within the country besides helping him install the right team to lead the remainder of the war. Complaints against such corrupt elements in his government were making rounds for quite some time and his bold decision to get rid of them has further enhanced his brand image as a “courageous and strong” leader, and it will surely help him in steering the war machinery more effectively in the coming days. This act has won him the trust and confidence of his people – and also the donor countries – who were quite skeptical about the methodology and process of disbursement of the financial and material aid.
The second factor is the ongoing preparations in Russia for a massive operation in spring. Reports are emanating from the Kremlin that Putin is seriously working on a grand military offensive with the advent of the spring season. It is a well-known fact that around 150,000 recruits are being trained specifically to add more muscle to this military operation. Putin, it seems, eagerly wants to capture more areas so as to dispel the impression of the ineptness of the Russian forces, which have been blatantly exposed in the “special military operation” in Ukraine. Putin frantically wants to gain an upper hand in the ongoing misadventure in Ukraine. He will go full-throttle to gain more territories to put pressure on Kyiv – and the U.S. and NATO.
Putin has a narrow window of just two to three weeks before the arrival of fresh consignments of weapons for the Ukrainian forces – which will include the much-hyped Leopards 2 and Challenger 2 battle tanks. Putin will try to use this window to unleash a massive military operation to grab as much Ukrainian land as possible. This will be a dreadful scenario when the two forces, reinforced by the fresh replenishments in spring, would be colliding.
The Russian President, knowing well that the Russian forces do not have the logistical and operational capability to move beyond a certain area inside Ukraine, wants to capture more towns in spring to use as bargaining chips. Putin now wants more slices of territory to pressurize Kyiv.
A lot still depends upon the outcome of the spring phase of this war. As witnessed by the intensified aerial attacks on the Ukrainian towns in the aftermath of announcements from Berlin and Washington about sending their tanks to Ukraine, there is every reason to expect a much harsher and bloodier phase of the Ukraine war in the coming days – probably as soon as the winters start receding. The arrival of bulky armored behemoths – from Germany, the U.S. and other European countries – will seriously embolden Zelenskyy to become offensive, which will compel Moscow to mobilize more reserves to restrict the Ukrainians, ensuing an intense duel.
Furthermore, Biden's visit to Kyiv and his speech in the Polish capital Warsaw ahead of the anniversary of the Ukraine war, with slogans “Kyiv stands strong” and “Ukraine will never be a victory for Russia,” has certainly given a new impetus to the Ukrainian efforts of pushing back the Russian forces. While, on the other hand, in a dueling manner, Putin, in his state of the nation speech the same day, also announced the suspension of Moscow’s participation in the New START treaty and vowed to keep defending Russian borders against Western aggression. The situation is heating up. Both sides, it seems, are gearing up for a massive clash in the spring. The wording used by Biden and Putin in their symbolic “anniversary talks” to their respective audiences is reflective of the fact that both sides are getting ready for an intense phase in this war.
Hence, it is too early to talk about a frozen conflict at this stage.
