The recent interview of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy with The Associated Press (AP) suddenly raised many questions about the Ukraine conflict. In this interview, Zelenskyy made some nibbling remarks on different matters, including the momentum of the war, Western support, Russian President Vladimir Putin and China.
Three inferences can be drawn from his talk with the journalists: One, Bakhmut has assumed extreme psychological importance in the overall war; two, despite pledges of generous support from the West, the Ukrainians still feel “enough” is not being done; and three, China will play a crucial role in the future course of the war.
All these points, from the Western perspective, sound pretty pessimistic. However, the reality is that Zelenskyy has started appearing more “pragmatic and practical” in his communication for quite some time. The battle for Bakhmut, a transport and logistics hub in Ukraine’s Donetsk, part of the mainly Russian-speaking industrialized Donbass region, has raged for seven grueling months, marking one of the lengthiest clashes of the war between Ukrainian and Russian forces. Despite this prolonged struggle, some Western military experts have questioned the strategic importance of this city and raised doubts as to why Ukraine would endure such substantial casualties to safeguard Bakhmut. But Zelenskyy offered a contrasting perspective, affirming that Bakhmut has assumed extreme psychological and symbolic importance that any defeat in this conflict would create a window of opportunity for Russia and seriously demoralize the Ukrainians. He warned that should Putin triumph over Ukraine in Bakhmut, he would be keen to “market” this triumph to the international community.
“If he senses some blood, smells that we are weak, he will push, push, push,” remarked Zelenskyy about Putin. He is right in his assessment of Putin, who desperately wants to capture Bakhmut to give a new impetus to his spring offensive.
However, things will not stop here. As Zelenskyy rightly said, in the case of the fall of Bakhmut, the pressure would come not only from the international community but also from within his own country. “Our society will feel tired. Our society will push me to have a compromise with them,” is how Zelenskyy pragmatically expressed his worst fears if the Russians push the Ukrainian forces out of Bakhmut.
However, one thing was also clear: Zelenskyy is no longer confident about holding onto Bakhmut for an extended period. On the contrary, he seems to be quite pessimistic about the fate of Bakhmut. At the same time, Zelenskyy appears to be quite cagey about the Western support for his fight. He feels the West has failed to impose sanctions against Russia tough enough to dissuade Putin from his venture. He asserts that Putin and his inner circle should be the main target of international sanctions. Over 30 countries, which account for more than half of the world’s economy, have enforced sanctions on Russia. These measures include limits on the price of Russian oil and restrictions on their access to international financial transactions.
Additionally, the West’s sanctions targeted about 2,000 Russian businesses, government officials, oligarchs and relatives. As per a recent report by the U.S. Treasury Department, the total value of Russian assets that have been blocked or frozen due to sanctions is over $58 billion. But Zelenskyy believes these sanctions have failed to yield the desired objectives because Putin and his close associates are still evading these sanctions by selling Russian oil in the parallel market.
Zelenskyy’s second complaint against the West is related to its inability to fulfill promises about the weapons completely. Indubitably, Ukraine’s armed forces have been the beneficiary of an infusion of billions of dollars in ammunition and weaponry from Western countries. This aid has been instrumental in fortifying the Ukrainian military. Still, there remains a snag in the timely military hardware delivery process.
Zelenskyy reiterated his complaint in this interview that despite a commitment to deliver the promised armaments, some have yet to be received. “We have great decisions about Patriots, but we don’t have them for real,” he complained about the delivery of the U.S. Patriots air defense system. It is pertinent to note that Ukrainian personnel is being trained in the United States on the operational methodologies of the Patriot system. Still, none have been shipped to Ukraine. Zelenskyy asserts that Ukraine urgently needs at least 20 Patriot batteries to defend against the daily barrage of ballistic missiles effectively.
Though another European country has provided an alternate air defense system, Zelenskyy appears seriously dissatisfied with its efficacy. So, he is genuinely desperate for the United States Patriot system, but he has no clue about their arrival in Ukraine. His complaints appear to be reasonably justifiable on the surface. However, his critics also allege that he is asking for too much from the West when he is not confident about any victory against the Russians. In the same interview, he informally invited Chinese President Xi Jinping to visit Kyiv. This gesture has perplexed his Western backers, who want to keep China out of the Ukraine imbroglio. Though Zelenskyy has not implicitly mentioned in his invitation to Xi to play the role of any mediation, it indirectly signals that Zelenskyy wants Xi to use his influence on Putin.
Regardless of how the Western capitals will react to his invitation to Xi, one thing is sure he increasingly feels that he can’t win the war quickly, so he should start communicating with the potential mediators at this stage. China, after its highly successful mediation in the Iran-Saudi detente and the release of its 12-point position paper on the settlement of the Ukraine conflict, has suddenly emerged as a dependable peace broker. Therefore, in a balancing act, Zelenskyy wants to establish some rapport with Xi, considered a very close friend of Putin, to use his channel to find a better deal if things move toward the negotiating table in the future.
The whole theme of the interview suggests that Zelenskyy is now seriously foreseeing a negotiated deal in the coming days. That’s why he is now eager to invite Xi, who is expected to play a significant role in the future direction of the negotiations on the Ukraine conflict. But this venture is fraught with many pitfalls. First, Zelenskyy’s supporters in the West and Washington will dislike all his efforts to involve China in the Ukraine predicament.
