Is Türkiye losing interest in partnership with the EU?
"As a longstanding candidate member, Türkiye is a crucial interlocutor to the EU since its diplomatic activism entangles many dossiers concerning Brussels. However, a new page needs to be written in order to resume a constructive spirit among the parts, overall in a time of many regional challenges and risky factors." (Illustration by Erhan Yalvaç)

Brussels' negligence in addressing Türkiye's demands and its delay in the EU membership may cause Türkiye to join other alliances



Türkiye’s participation in the EU foreign ministers’ informal meeting held in Brussels on Aug. 29 has an important meaning, at least from a symbolic perspective, as it is intended to revitalize Ankara’s relations with the 27-member bloc. Indeed, after five years of absence, Türkiye has been invited again to the table to discuss several issues of mutual interest.

As a longstanding candidate member, Türkiye is a crucial interlocutor to the EU since its diplomatic activism entangles many dossiers concerning Brussels. However, a new page needs to be written to resume a constructive spirit among the parts amid regional challenges and risky factors. The timing is certainly not coincidental, both about the domestic dynamics of the union and for what concerns the regional events.

At the gates of Europe, a war has been fought for years now, which, despite predictions, is dragging on and escalating. The Russian-Ukrainian front has become very hot and this implies spillover in Europe and the whole area. Moreover, new conflicts are heating the region by posing many risks to international architecture; hence, security has become a priority for the EU. However, the EU lacks an efficient strategic-defensive structure, given the historical difficulty in implementing an effective security and defense union; thus it has been delegating its own security to NATO and the U.S.

In this frame, Türkiye is a key interlocutor since militarily and politically it has been very active in protecting European interests. In the thorny Russian-Ukrainian scenario, Ankara has been providing assistance and support to the Ukrainian army through the supply of Turkish drones. Moreover, it takes a regular part in NATO operations and many EU missions. In other words, Ankara is already playing a crucial role in the defense of Europe and the West. Indeed, the approval of the membership of Sweden and Finland to NATO, decisions driven by strategic opportunities and made in the interest of the alliance, should not be underestimated. As the second largest army in NATO, the Turkish role will always be crucial in light of the notable development of the Turkish defense sector.

In addition, it is worth mentioning Turkish diplomatic dynamism in mediating among the warring sides, as it was evident at the Antalya and Istanbul negotiation tables as well as in the creation of the so-called "grain corridor" and more recently in the prisoners' swap operation. Hence, Türkiye's synergy with Europe and the defense of Western core values are evident. There is room to think that from a future perspective, Türkiye would eventually pay the dividends of European defense aiming to fill that gap that the U.S. and NATO currently cover. However not just that, Türkiye is also an EU strategic partner from many other perspectives. As an energy corridor, Ankara is a crucial reference for Brussels in its energy differentiation policies. The relationship is also cemented by solid economic data and a significant trade exchange grown constantly over the years to reach 206 billion euros (about $227 billion) in 2023.

Without going over in detail the vicissitudes of the Turkish-European process, there is no doubt that over the years, despite its EU candidacy and the ongoing accession process, Türkiye has been subjected to "third country" treatment and the relations with the EU have gradually taken on a "transnational" nature, intended as cooperation on specific dossiers, including migration.

Currently, as the EU faces a new leadership, the need to revitalize relations with Ankara becomes more important. Furthermore, the uncertainty over the outcome of next November's American elections poses many questions to Brussels, especially regarding the implementation of its foreign policy and the guarantee of its security. In this context, the acknowledgment of Türkiye as a reliable partner on crucial issues, at least cosmetically by the 27, comes to the fore. Unfortunately, the thorny issues in the relations with the EU remain pending: the visa liberalization for Turkish citizens, the modernization of the customs union, the restarting of negotiations and the Cyprus issue. A serious and positive discussion on the first two points, as necessary and ethically due, combined with the resumption of the high-level dialogue, would have the mutual benefit of lifting the sense of frustration toward Brussels and maximizing the benefits of the historic relationship. Otherwise, if the declared intentions are not supported by facts and a clear road map is not set, not only will the European credibility be dramatically undermined, but, in line with its diplomatic differentiation, Türkiye will be more than entitled to find an alternative path.

More recently Ankara has applied to the BRICS. The application entangles several aspects as well as Ankara's frustration with the EU bloc. Apart from the stalemate in the negotiation process, also given by the monolithic European vision regarding Cyprus, the open dossiers to invest in strengthening the cooperation with Ankara, although always discussed in their urgent needs, remain a dead letter. Together with the liberalization of visas for Turkish citizens, the modernization of the customs union, so strongly supported by the European side, has been held hostage to political and maximalist approaches to the detriment of mutual interests. Thus, the dialogue with BRICS is also born in the light of leveraging on the West by ventilating the option of a paradigm shift, which could also affect the global dynamics. The criticalities of the liberal system are dramatically evident in many perspectives, overall in the absolute inability to positively address the global crises by enforcing a genuine spirit of solidarity. Under the leadership of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Türkiye has been very vocal in denouncing the dysfunctions of a system that does not reflect the current distribution of world power and does not implement sustainable approaches. The mottos "A fairer world is possible" and "The world is bigger than 5" therefore entail the need for responsible and responsive institutional frameworks.

Strategically located between the West and the East, Türkiye is well aware of regional and global risks and by acting as a hinge it also aims to preserve its national interest. Logistically and economically, Ankara is a hub of great importance as a connector between the Global South and the Global North, a role enabling an in-depth understanding of regional dynamics. The growing engagement in Africa, the diplomatic efforts in the Middle East and the projection toward Central Asia and beyond are all proof of Turkish international activism and vision. However, in its relations with the West and especially with the EU, Türkiye has been subjected to unequal and unfair approaches. Unfortunately, the Turkish dynamism and its crucial role in several dossiers, also in the frame of being the 17th world economy, today is counterbalanced by a swampy relationship with Europe while the BRICS emerging powers showcase political vision and economic vitality. In this hectic time, thus, the crucial question concerns the EU’s sincerity and effective speed in revitalizing relations with Ankara and the compatibility of Turkish membership to BRICS with the constraints of the Western institutions Ankara is embedded in.