Concerns about the stability and power of the United Kingdom continue after Charles, formerly the Prince of Wales, took over the throne as king. The stability and strength of the kingdom are of critical importance for the existence of the 16 countries that are members of the Commonwealth of Nations and thus affiliated with the kingdom, where the sovereign shared by those states through the concept of personal union resides. Of course, this power and stability have greater importance for England, Wales, Scotland and Ireland, which are the constituent countries of the United Kingdom.

It is noticeable, as the oldest prince to inherit the U.K. throne, Charles' reputation in the royal family and in the eyes of the public was not as high as that of Queen Elizabeth II at this period of her reign. On the other hand, after the death of the queen and the end of former U.K. Premier Boris Johnson's rule, the U.K. retreated into its own shell – economically and politically – by bidding farewell to the European Union (EU) after the Brexit process negatively affected the political and economic stability of the Island.

After the U.K. said goodbye to the EU and retreated into its own shell economically and politically, the Brexit process adversely affected the political and economic stability of the island.

The pound, the official currency of the U.K., saw the lowest level in history against the U.S. dollar due to the interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) in consideration of current economic data and confronted high inflation figures. This has accelerated the shaking of the "cradle of civilization."

The great danger

Apart from the intrigue and economic turmoil in the royal family, the greatest danger awaiting the U.K. is that the voices of independence will rise among the countries under the kingdom's rule. It is more than a prediction that the first step toward demanding independence in the future will be taken by Scotland as they did before.

The Falkirk War, also known as the Scottish Independence War, dates back to the 13th-14th centuries. It was born from Scotland's desire to become a fully independent country in internal and external relations. In the more than 700 years that have passed since then, Scotland has been a country trying to gain full independence at every opportunity through wars on the field and diplomacy at the table.

Recent history reminds us of the 2014 Scottish Independence Referendum. This referendum is one of the last democratic steps of the 700-year process mentioned above. A queen who defied the years and ensured absolute power and stability, a pound with the highest reputation and value among the currencies that affect the "American Dollar Index" (DXY), and the United Kingdom as the most valuable member of the European Union were the most important factors that affected the choice of Scottish voters in the 2014 Scottish Independence Referendum. Owing allegiance to the United Kingdom affiliated with the European Union was the critical status for many Scots. As a matter of fact, in the Brexit process, the Scottish people, contrary to the majority of other citizens of the kingdom, preferred to stay in the European Union with a rate of 62% and showed their Eurocentric approach in the ballot box.

When we look at the results of the 2014 Scottish Independence Referendum, it is quite apparent that more than 11% of the voters have the will to remain loyal to the United Kingdom; however, the factors affecting the elections are constantly changing. The three factors that affect the Scottish voters’ choice mentioned above have come to an end: The queen has died, the pound has lost value and the Europen Union has "collapsed." Due to those recent factors, the preferences of the Scottish voters will evolve into a deeply different stance. As a matter of fact, the Scottish government, which cried out for independence even before the queen died, expressed that they were considering taking a step toward a new referendum in 2023. Currently, such a change in the circumstances against the United Kingdom will render commitment to the United Kingdom meaningless for the Scottish people and government.

It should not be considered a prophecy to predict that in a referendum to be held within the next year at the earliest, the Scottish people will prefer to leave the United Kingdom, and Scotland will reach the status of an independent state albeit with slightly more than half the votes.

The domino effect

The crises, regional wars, epidemics and changes in the balance of monetary power in the new millennium have produced results that are almost impossible to predict. A China starting to take over the world's economy, a Europe in need of oil and natural gas, a Russia that constantly threatens the West with nuclear weapons, a Syria where the blood of millions of people was shed, an Iran where protests are continuing with full force, states used as pawns, a pound that sees its lowest value in history, a euro/dollar parity that went below 1 after many years and now an independent Scotland, Ireland and Wales?

These colossal changes over the last 20 years feel like anything is possible. Perhaps, the Scottish people and their government's desire for independence, which has continued for more than 700 years, will come to an end in the upcoming years. I guess that the domino effect theory used by American politicians to describe the spread of communism among states might be put into practice this time among Commonwealth member states that demand independence. That’s why, after a possible Scottish split, Ireland and Wales will await their own independence through "the domino effect."

*Attorney at Law at the Istanbul Bar Association