The resignation of Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi, after his fractionated ruling alliance melted away due to infighting, is undoubtedly a major jolt to the Italian political spectrum which has been witnessing one of the world’s longest periods of volatility in the postwar era – with 19 prime ministers in 33 years. Draghi, the highly respected former chief of the European Central Bank (ECB), admired for his instrumental role in saving the single currency in the eurozone crisis of 2012, certainly brought a totally new element of stability, maturity and calmness to Italian politics with his trademark tranquility and gravitas in tackling Italy’s problems. Two kinds of reactions are being witnessed in response to Draghi’s sudden departure: inside the country, recent opinion polls suggest that the overwhelming majority of Italians want Draghi to stay in office to steer Italy through its economic and geopolitical challenges and they are very much concerned about his removal from power. Meanwhile outside the country, Russian President Vladimir Putin is quite happy with Draghi's absence from the scene as it has "apparently" raised the chances of pro-Moscow political elements in Italy gaining power. Italy is among the select Western European countries where pro-Russia political forces have reasonable clout – and Putin needs these supportive voices in the wake of the Ukraine invasion. The dissolution of Italy’s government is considered a major win for Putin in Western Europe.

Draghi put up a major resistance to Putin’s influence in Italy and Europe, while the three coalition partners who are responsible for Draghi’s downfall are considered sympathizers of Putin. Draghi’s exit has emerged as an advantage for Putin, but still a lot depends on the results of the forthcoming elections in September. Draghi was the first person in decades who brought the concept of "somewhat stability" to Italian politics and the economy, with things appearing to be going in the right direction for the country. There are ample reasons to believe that Draghi’s stint was scuttled indirectly by Putin through his "friends" in the ruling alliance who refused to support Draghi in the no-confidence motion. In early 2021, a national unity government – comprising the center-left Democratic Party, the anti-establishment populist Five Star Movement, populist firebrand Matteo Salvini’s hard-core nationalist Lega and former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia – was formed under the premiership of Draghi, who steered Italy through its COVID-19 crisis very well. His cross-party coalition was quite successful in steadying a faltering vaccination drive and managed a vigorous economic rebound from 2020’s gross domestic product (GDP) shrinkage of 9% as well as convinced Brussels to approve $205 billion to support his economic reform agenda from the EU coronavirus recovery funds. But he appeared increasingly frustrated by the complexity of coalition negotiations over his proposed reforms, which included updating property registers to improve tax collection, auctioning lucrative beach concessions and a new competition law. His gristly aggressive stance against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was also one of the key reasons for his coalition partners being persuaded to desert him. Though there is no concrete or tangible evidence to corroborate the rumors that Moscow was secretly pulling the strings to ensure the collapse of the Draghi government, it is a fact that Putin is the major beneficiary of this episode in Italy.

In the 17 months of his stint as premier, Draghi, who was asked by President Sergio Mattarella to continue his work as the caretaker prime minister until the Sept. 25 elections, has proven his mettle as a brilliant statesperson who has been able to keep the Italian economy on the right track against the backdrop of the pandemic and then the unexpected fuel and food crisis due to a war on the eastern fringes of the European continent. The credit goes to Draghi’s intense efforts to swiftly find alternative sources of gas to reduce dependence on Russia. After the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February, Italy secured increasing supplies of Algerian gas, which could also be channeled further northward to Germany. The political crisis and departure of Draghi do not bode well for Italy at a time when the global economy is going through a highly uncertain and volatile phase. The most urgent matter is the approval – in the budget – of the reforms that the European Commission is demanding in exchange for a promised $205 billion in grants and loans from the EU’s pandemic relief fund. That process will now be delayed until the new government takes charge. Now all eyes are set on the Sept. 25 elections. Recent surveys are indicating that an alliance of Italy’s right-wing parties is likely to form the next government. Matteo Salvini’s Lega and Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia will be able to muster a handsome number of seats, however, the nativist Brothers of Italy are predicted to grab the major chunk, which means Italians may have Giorgia Meloni as their first female prime minister. Meloni, 45, a staunch right-winger, has limited experience in government. She served for three years as a youth minister in the Berlusconi government in 2008. This is the only government experience she has ever had. As a founding member of the intensely anti-immigrant Brothers of Italy, she is expected to promote an anti-migrant stance as one of the key planks of her election campaign. She is not in a position to stick to a nuanced approach towards the EU, in the wake of the Ukraine crisis and Italy’s overdependency on financial support from EU funds. She has been an advocate of amendments in EU treaties that would allow Italian law to supersede EU rules and regulations. Though she has never campaigned to leave the EU as such, she has been a big critic of the bureaucratic tendencies of Brussels. However, at this stage when Italy desperately needs euros from the EU, she will have to profoundly tone down her EU rhetoric. Her ostensible euro-skepticism will surely be mollified to accommodate the growing sympathies among Italian voters towards the EU after the announcement of the relief package of $205 billion. But Meloni will have to make some bold and unpopular decisions with regard to the competition laws and tax rules to accommodate the conditions of the EU to avoid any cuts in EU funding.

*Op-ed contributor based in Karachi, Pakistan