To explain China's approach toward the war in Ukraine, we must first step back before the war. In the meeting between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin before the start of the Winter Olympics, both sides emphasized that their relations are very strong and do not face any restrictions. It is said that in the same meeting, Chinese officials had asked Moscow to postpone military action until the Winter Olympics concluded. Whether or not the Chinese officials really made this request in that meeting, the Russian attack took place. As a result, Beijing had to take a stand regarding this crisis. At that time, China presented a narrative of the crisis centered on two issues. First, this crisis was caused by the actions of the West, especially the expansion of NATO, and as a result, ignoring Russia's security concerns. Second, Chinese officials refused to describe the Russian attack as an "invasion" and called it a "special military operation." This initial narrative of the crisis signifies support for Moscow.

Why the change in narrative?

However, over time, some developments affected the change in the narrative of China. The first effective factor was prolonging the war, contrary to the initial predictions, which could have serious consequences for the international and Chinese economies. The same issue has caused China to worry. This war has also led to the revelation of Russia's military weaknesses as China's strategic partner, which in turn can make Western powers doubt Chinese military capabilities as well. Such an impression can seriously threaten Chinese national security, especially in the case of Taiwan.

The second effective factor was the high-level display of solidarity between the United States and its allies in support of Ukraine and against Russia. The war in Ukraine made the U.S. and the EU closer and narrowed the gaps in their relations. Although some European countries, including Germany and France, wanted an independent European foreign policy and sometimes took different positions than the U.S., even against Russia, highlighting the threat of Russia united everyone in the West.

However, the alliance of support for Ukraine was not only limited to Europe. Some other U.S. partners and allies, including Japan, also took an anti-Russian stand in East Asia. This issue has increased China's concern about the U.S. alliance system in the Asia-Pacific.

The third factor includes the portrayal of China by the Western media and officials. For example, following the start of the war, the New York Times reported that U.S. officials had provided Chinese officials with information about Russia's seriousness in invading Ukraine before the military attack began and asked Beijing to use its influence over Russia to prevent the war. Western sources have repeatedly published reports about the possibility of China's military and economic aid to Russia. While China has denied any support for the war in Ukraine, these reports negatively portray China as an irresponsible actor in the international arena. This has been totally against China's attempts to portray itself as a responsible power in the current international system.

The New Narrative

These three factors led to a change in the Chinese narrative of the war in Ukraine. In the new narrative, the United States and the West are still blamed as responsible for the crisis. This issue is important because China sees a link between the U.S.' response toward Ukraine and Washington's activities in places such as the South China Sea and Taiwan.

The Chinese narrative also emphasizes the Ukraine crisis as a regional conflict that does not require intervention by other powers, including Beijing. The Chinese officials also highlighted this issue at a meeting with their counterparts from the European Union in April 2022. By adopting this approach, China clearly demonstrates its unwillingness to get involved in crises that are geographically far from its borders. For that, Beijing emphasizes its neutrality in the current war in Ukraine. As a result, while China has not acted as a mediator so far, it has kept its distance from Russia.

China strongly believes that the war in Ukraine is regional and can be resolved through dialogue between the parties. By adopting this strategy, China tries to avoid clashes and competition between the U.S. and Russia, which can hinder its economic recovery in the post-COVID-19 era.

This narrative has been accompanied by practical actions by the Chinese authorities and media to distance themselves from supporting Russia. The statements of the Chinese ambassador to the United States and his emphasis on the need for cooperation between China and the United States calm down the international political atmosphere, or his statements about China being an independent country that makes independent decisions, are in a way confirming this new narrative.

There have been changes in the coverage of the Ukraine war in the Chinese media as well. The official state news agency of China, Xinhua, has recently interviewed Ukraine's foreign affairs minister, during which he expressed his concerns about the negative consequences of Russia's attack on the advancement of China's Belt and Road projects in Ukraine.

In the economic sense, China has not practically supported Russia in the Ukraine war and the evidence indicates that many Chinese companies are quite cautious about the future of their investments in Russia.

Overall, the current narrative means that despite the changes in China's foreign policy compared to the past decades, "pragmatism" will remain the main defining axis of China's foreign policy. This means that China still gives great importance to its commercial and economic relations with Europe and the United States to sustain the current situation in the international system. However, China does not miss the opportunity to buy cheap oil where its interests demand it.