Struggling for survival, weakened by the fragmentation of its regional alliances, and hounded by incessant Israeli targeted attacks that have humiliated it as a Middle Eastern power, Iran was forced to respond to Hezbollah leader Hasan Nasrallah’s assassination by firing a salvo of missiles toward Israel. That was the rationale offered by Tehran's ruling elite, a cadre of clerics and military leaders whose grip on power is maintained through a combination of religious fervor and military aggression united by their hostility to Israel and America. They have cultivated a narrative of resistance that has been so successful that it now seems impossible to escape.

As tensions escalated, Iran’s need to respond became more pressing, pushing the Iranian-Israeli conflict into a more dangerous phase. What began as shadowy skirmishes in proxy battlegrounds has transformed into a more overt struggle, with both sides trading blows across multiple fronts. Tehran, while isolated diplomatically, is clinging to its anti-Israel rhetoric and military actions to maintain a veneer of strength. Yet, behind the bombast, there’s a growing sense of vulnerability as Israel’s precision strikes continue to erode Iran’s military and political influence.

This sets another phase for the Iranian-Israeli conflict to become even more deadly as Iran felt its hand was forced due to escalating tensions. Iran’s firing of missiles at Israel marks a significant escalation in the ongoing tensions between the two regional powers. While the true extent of the damage caused by the Iranian missiles is unknown, one thing is clear: Iran has tested the threshold that Israel can absorb. The Israeli military says it has shot down many of those missiles in the air, showing the effectiveness of its air defense system. In a harsh message following the operation, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that there would be "consequences" for Iran. This implies that Israel is mulling a retaliatory attack – probably against Iranian military sites, oil refineries or nuclear installations. For obvious reasons, it could spark an uncontrollable inferno with implications across the region. The question now is whether Iran’s latest attack will lead to a full-blown war or if the two sides will once again find a way to de-escalate tensions. However, given Iran's track record in the past year, it is unlikely that Iran will take any additional steps on this front. Like always, their attacks are symbolic rather than retaliatory. Apparently, Iranians staged these missile attacks in the night to have more "visual impact" on the domestic audience.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) said that 90% of the rockets reached their objectives, but in truth, it is a mere farce. Most of the hundreds of missiles fired into Israel were intercepted in the air by Israel's advanced defense systems, particularly the Iron Dome. The missile attack only served to expose Iran's waning influence in the region. Israel, meanwhile, has emerged from the conflict with its reputation as a military superpower intact.

Though the Biden administration, while giving Israel rhetorical backing, does not want a direct conflict with Iran. The Hamas attack on Oct. 7 was swiftly met with a very ferocious retaliation that left them reeling. The targeted assassination of Hasan Nasrallah has turned Hezbollah, once a powerful force, into a relatively "softened" group that will take some time to recover from the initial shock. Instead, Iran's response was a lot of noise and almost no bite with its missile barrage in retaliation. If Israel moves ahead with its ground invasion of Lebanon, the specter of stepped-up bloodletting rises, which compels other regional players to come to Lebanon's aid – notably Türkiye.

The recent beheading of Hezbollah by Israel has spelled the death knell for the myth of Iran’s "Axis of Resistance." This once-vaunted alliance, which purportedly served as a self-claimed front-line custodian for Palestinian liberation and deterrence to Israel, has been exposed as a hollow shell. Hezbollah's impotence in the face of Israel's assault on Gaza was a stark demonstration of its irrelevance. The organization's loud threats and vain acts of retaliation were answered with lightning-quick and devastating revenge. Israel has killed most of Hezbullah's first and second-tier leadership and destroyed its means of communication, resulting in Hezbullah suffering an organizational crisis because it has yet to announce the successor of Hasan Nasrallah. Instead, the Axis of Resistance is proving to be a destabilizing force in the region.

Paramilitary groups in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen have played a significant role in fueling conflict and making attacks by Israel and its allies more likely. Iran, which has been giving financial and logistical support to militant groups, now risks getting sucked into a regional war it is not even ready to fight. Nasrallah's death has made Iran face the fact that its strategy has gone awry. The Axis of Resistance stands for the Iranian ambitions to control the region. However, as this alliance has steadily weakened, the fortunes of Iran have declined – with little light at the end of the tunnel.

Iran and its proxies often issue incendiary threats to wipe Israel off the map, most notably Hezbollah. And yet, time and again, these grand proclamations fail to materialize. In practice, Tehran's so-called "Axis of Resistance" has repeatedly failed to deliver the decisive blows it promises. In the case of Hezbollah, under Hassan Nasrallah, they managed to pose some tangible challenges to Israel’s security, yet they are nowhere near being labeled as an existential threat. The militia's attacks – sporadic and largely symbolic – have been met with swift, overwhelming responses from the Israeli military.

This continued pattern of action, or, to be more precise, inaction, has damaged Iran's regional legitimacy. The militia's attacks – sporadic and largely symbolic – have been met with swift, overwhelming responses from the Israeli military. The leadership of Iran is talking about "strategic patience," but for Hezbollah and other Iranian-aligned forces, the reality of being left exposed is undeniable. For Tehran, its proxies, and its supporters, the question lingers: will Iran ever truly step up, or are they perpetually bound to wait for a retaliation that may never come?