The dynamics in world politics rapidly shift. Iran's supply of short-range missiles and drones to Russia has triggered fresh sanctions from the United States and the European Union. As the Ukraine war approaches its third year and Russia turns to Iran to replenish its dwindling ammunition stockpiles, Western countries are growing uneasy. This is not just an arms deal – it's a move that could have significant consequences for regional stability and the global balance of power. Moreover, it complicates efforts to pressure a sanctions-hit Russia into engaging in peace talks.

In response, the U.S. and the EU have started imposing new sanctions, calling Iran's arms support a "security crisis." Western military and economic aid to Ukraine has severely weakened Russia on the battlefield, even allowing Ukrainian forces to control Russia's Kursk region. Russia has procured Iranian-made Shahed UAVs and Fath-360 short-range ballistic missiles to alleviate its ammunition shortage. Reports indicate that more than 200 Fath-360 missiles were delivered to Russia via the Caspian Sea. Although Iranian officials deny supplying missiles to Russia, intelligence reports from the U.S. and the U.K. confirm that Iran has provided munitions to Russia.

The presence of a reformist president in Iran, who is expected to foster strong relations with the EU, does not imply that he controls this process. The final decision-making power in Iran rests with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). While this hinders Iran's opportunity to improve its relations with the West, Tehran sees significant strategic gains from cooperation with Moscow. According to experts, Iran receives advanced military technology, nuclear energy and defense industry support from Russia in return for this cooperation. The two countries allegedly hold talks, especially on advanced air defense systems.

West in stress

Western powers have reacted harshly to these developments. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken stated that the growing cooperation between Russia and Iran poses a direct threat to Europe's security and that Iran's destabilizing influence reaches far beyond the Middle East. As a result, the U.S. and EU blacklisted the Iranian airline "Iran Air" and restricted access to Europe. In addition, economic sanctions on Iran's missile program were expanded, and three senior Iranian military officials and four entities were sanctioned.

The arms trade between Iran and Russia has also sparked a debate on whether it violates the 2015 nuclear deal. The deal also covered ballistic missiles, but since these restrictions on Iran expired in October 2023, Iran is technically not violating the agreement. However, U.N. Security Council Resolution 2231, which underpinned the nuclear deal, defined the G-7-created Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) as part of the arms embargo on Iran. By sending short-range weapons, Iran is circumventing the binding nature of this article. Despite Western pressure, Iran's supply of arms to Russia is based on several factors – first, the unilateral withdrawal of the U.S. from the nuclear deal in 2018 without justification.

Tehran-Moscow getting closer

The unwavering support of the U.S. and E.U. for Israel in its operations in Gaza and Lebanon has driven Iran to seek closer ties with Russia. Recent Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military and missile production facilities have underscored vulnerabilities within Iran’s air defense systems, exposing its pressing need for advanced defensive capabilities. These attacks, which bypassed Iran’s radar and air defenses, not only inflicted significant damage on key installations and resulted in the deaths of four Iranian soldiers but also served as a stark reminder of Iran’s exposure to high-level threats. For Tehran, these events go beyond immediate losses, underscoring the strategic necessity of bolstering its defenses against potential future assaults on critical infrastructure, such as nuclear facilities and oil fields.

In light of these developments, Iran's cooperation with Moscow is crucial. By securing Russian air defense systems and advanced military technology, Tehran aims to address the defense gaps highlighted by Israeli incursions. Iranian officials, including President Masoud Pezeshkian, have publicly declared Iran’s right to retaliate, a stance that signals the likelihood of escalating tensions. Israel’s recent strikes, paired with U.S. support for such actions, will reinforce Iran’s drive toward a strategic alliance with Russia to establish a counterbalance to Western-backed regional threats.

The fact that Israeli warplanes were able to enter Iran, evade radar and destroy specific installations sent a powerful message to Iran: "We could have done more if we wanted." Growing concerns over possible future attacks on nuclear and oil facilities intensify Iran’s motivation to deepen its military cooperation with Russia. In return, Iran seeks to obtain advanced Russian military assets, such as Su-35 Flanker fighter jets and S-400 air defense systems, to reinforce its air defenses.

Mutual distrust

However, Moscow seems to be dragging its feet, as it has yet to supply Tehran with resources that would promptly meet Iran’s strategic defense requirements. This is why many within Iran grew skeptical of the Kremlin’s commitment to Tehran’s defense.

For example, the S-300 air defense system, manufactured in Russia and valued at $1 billion, has faced significant setbacks since Iran initiated negotiations with Moscow for its delivery, which spanned 15 years. Despite its high cost and extended wait, the system's operational performance has been disappointing, recording zero successful interceptions and thus providing no tangible defense success for Tehran. This prolonged delay and lack of efficacy underscore the challenges Iran has faced in securing reliable defensive capabilities from Moscow.

Russia's failure to provide promised S-400 anti-aircraft systems or Su-35 fighters left Iran vulnerable, raising considerable concerns in Tehran. On Oct. 28, 2024, at a press conference of the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Ali Akbar Saadati, a reporter for the Kar va Kargar (Work and Worker) newspaper, criticized Russian President Vladimir Putin, describing him as dishonorable, noting that he abandoned Iran in its most difficult times.

Other Iranian observers recall Russia's past support for U.N. sanctions against Iran and its backing of the UAE's claims to three islands in the Persian Gulf, which Iran has controlled since the 1970s. Furthermore, Russia played a significant role in derailing the restoration of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) during the 2022 negotiations, coinciding with its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, when Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov insisted that U.S. sanctions over Ukraine should not impact Russian-Iranian economic ties outlined in the JCPOA.

The one and only support

Currently, Tehran's stance appears vulnerable, and it is keen to get Moscow's support as it is the only one it can get. However, the Kremlin harbors concern that Iran might be negotiating with the West to strengthen the relations between both sides, potentially at Russia's expense. Meanwhile, military cooperation between Iran and Russia will continue to help both countries realize their short-term strategic objectives. With the weapons provided to Russia, Iran will seek to modernize its military capacity and gain access to advanced technologies.

This synergy will continue as both countries seek solidarity against Western sanctions. Russia's military activities in Ukraine and Iran's regional security concerns increase interdependence. Russia will stockpile long-range missiles in its inventory with the short-range missiles it acquires from Iran, and depending on the state of the war, this means that it will maintain the ability to use these long-range missiles to strike deep into Ukraine in the future. However, the sustainability of these relations will depend on changes in both sides' domestic and foreign policies.

As the geopolitical landscape continues to evolve, the implications of Iran's military support for Russia cannot be underestimated. This collaboration not only serves the immediate strategic interests of both nations but also complicates efforts to build a new Western security architecture.

With Iran aiming to enhance its military capabilities while Russia seeks to replenish its resources in the ongoing Ukraine conflict, their partnership reflects a complex interplay of necessity and skepticism. Ultimately, the future of this alliance will hinge on their ability to navigate the pressures of external sanctions and internal political dynamics, shaping the course of their respective nations in the years to come.