Pakistan’s political arena now stands at a precarious crossroads. Over the past five decades, the major political players have slipped into decline or teetering on the edge of irrelevance. The Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), which enjoyed nearly three decades of dominance in Punjab and alternated comfortably between government and opposition, faces the most defining dilemma about its survival. Its credibility started to erode when it entered into a submissive alliance with the military establishment to regain power. This move was taken as a betrayal of the party’s ideology by the grassroots supporters who were disgruntled by the leadership’s pro-establishment approach since 2021. The long stay in London by Nawaz Sharif, the leader of the PML-N, compounded the problems for the party. During this period, the second tier of the PML-N leadership also dissociated itself from its vote bank.
At the same time, the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), a dominant force in Punjab decades ago, has been reduced to a shadow of its former self. Despite Asif Ali Zardari’s calculated maneuvering and Bilawal Bhutto’s youthful optimism, the party’s influence in the province withered after its dismal performance in the 2013 elections. Attempts to reclaim relevance have yielded little, leaving the PPP a regional actor at best, which is now confined to the province of Sind only. In stark contrast, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) remains Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s most popular party, even with its leader, Imran Khan, languishing in Adiala Jail for over a year.
Factually speaking, popularity alone is not enough for the longevity of any political party. The same is true about the PTI. With a baggage of organizational chaos, infighting and lack of governing capacity, the PTI’s sustainability is heavily threatened. Despite captivating the public imagination at large, his strained relations with the powerful establishment and a lack of strategic vision are the main contributing factors to Imran Khan’s current predicament.
Recent events have given a new turn to the political fortunes of the PTI. Once again, political missteps have cost the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) dearly, especially during its Nov. 24-26 protest march demanding the release of its jailed leader, Imran Khan. Leading her first protest, Bushra Bibi, Khan’s wife, reportedly ignored counsel and mishandled the protest march toward D-Chowk – the infamous protest point in the capital – a move that backfired spectacularly. A hasty retreat on the evening of Nov. 26 by Bushra Bibi – and Ali Amin Gandapur, Chief Minister of the PTI-governed Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) province – left PTI supporters disheartened and demoralized.
This was the fifth protest march led by the PTI in recent months that ended in disaster. For obvious reasons, the PTI leadership’s recurring inability to manage expectations and prepare for contingencies has severely strained the party’s morale. Turning the protest into a dramatic "do-or-die" moment exacerbated the fallout when the plan unraveled. Though the PTI made gains during the three-day march, the cracks in its strategy became glaringly apparent once the state flexed its whole muscle. The party’s overreach and under-preparedness underscored its political immaturity, leaving its leadership and loyal cadres grappling with the costs of another botched showdown in the capital. All the five such attempts by the PTI to release Imran Khan have failed miserably. The last effort on Nov. 24 was proudly touted by Imran Khan and his wife, Bushra Bibi, as the “final march” that would continue till his release. But the crowd was dispersed by the state power within hours after reaching the designated D-Chowk for a long sit-in.
The PTI’s so-called “final call” fizzled out as unexpectedly as it began – chaotic, ill-prepared and devoid of accountability. By Tuesday night, supporters who had gathered in Islamabad were abandoned by their leaders. Bushra Bibi, who had vowed not to leave D-Chowk without Imran Khan’s release, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Chief Minister Ali Amin Gandapur reportedly fled to safer ground in KP, leaving behind a fractured and disillusioned base. This pattern of forsaking its own supporters has become emblematic of the PTI’s political playbook. The party’s workers, driven by unwavering loyalty to Imran Khan, endured harsh conditions and aggressive security measures, clinging to promises of an imminent revolution and the restoration of their “stolen mandate.” Instead, they found themselves on the front lines – facing tear gas and rubber bullets alone.
Such incidents underscore a troubling reality: PTI’s rhetoric of transformation is often undercut by its inability to deliver leadership when it matters most, leaving its followers stranded amid the fallout. The PTI’s repeated abandonment of its workers reveals a troubling disconnect between its rhetoric and reality. Since Imran Khan’s imprisonment, the PTI leadership, which has been subjected to frequent reshuffling by Imran Khan himself in the last year, has been treating their most loyal supporters as mere pawns who are abandoned at every crucial time to bear the brunt of crackdowns alone. Now, a profound betrayal of trust is visible among the PTI supporters.
The recent events in Islamabad reveal a stark failure of politics, with the coalition government opting for unnecessary high-handedness to silence dissent. In its overreach, it overlooked a fundamental truth: the essence of democracy lies in accommodating protests, differences and coexistence under the constitutional framework. The PML-N’s fiery rhetoric of revenge for past PTI sit-ins amounted to political theatrics devoid of maturity, while the PPP’s silent distancing offers little absolution from complicity in the consequences.
PTI workers, confined within the Red Zone and D-Chowk limits, were met with an unjustified crackdown. Patience, not force, should have been employed. Allowing the protesters to disperse naturally under Islamabad’s chilling winter while initiating constructive dialogue with PTI leadership could have averted bloody escalation. Instead, the Interior Minister’s heavy-handed approach has set a dangerous precedent, undermining lawful political engagement. The aftermath leaves PTI traumatized yet defiant, vowing to sustain its protests while the core issues - the release of Imran Khan and recognition of the Feb. 8 mandate - remain unmet.
All the stakeholders are repeatedly ignoring history’s lessons. The PTI’s failed “revolution” has left the party battered and bereft of momentum. With its leaders retreating under pressure and Imran Khan’s release now a distant prospect, the protest strategy to besiege Islamabad has backfired spectacularly. What was intended as a show of defiance became a stark revelation of the party’s limitations: its core strength was increasingly confined to Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP), where it has governed for over a decade.
The toll has been grim – reportedly nine lives lost, including four security personnel, with scores injured on both sides. Rather than advancing its cause, PTI’s march has seriously dented its. The incursion into the capital has left Imran Khan weakened and stands on precarious ground, eroding whatever leverage he once wielded to negotiate his release. The establishment – and, to some extent, the ruling coalition – now find themselves in a much stronger position. Now, after the botched protest campaign, the PTI is facing intense infighting and internal cracks, and many leaders, including the party’s secretary general, are expected to desert the party in anticipation of a massive crackdown by the government. There is widespread thinking among the PTI leadership that now the emboldened establishment will tighten the noose around the PTI leadership. Therefore, we may see many PTI leaders leaving the party, particularly from Punjab and Sind provinces, who failed to mobilize supporters for the “final march” on Nov. 24.
Damage has been done to the PTI, and its disillusioned supporters are not likely to support any protest campaign in the coming days. Their enthusiasm, ignited by promises of revolution, has been effectively extinguished by disappointment. Exhaustion and disillusionment have enveloped the entire party, which now faces the stark reality that Imran Khan will remain behind bars for the foreseeable future. The federal government, emboldened by its ability to handle the chaos, now stands stronger. The establishment has grown more resolute, clearly signaling little tolerance for further PTI maneuvers. Against this backdrop, a pricking question arises: if this outpouring of effort could not secure Imran Khan’s release, what possibly could? The grim answer is becoming inescapably clear. Rather than igniting a revolution, the failed march has deepened PTI’s internal fractures and political isolation. A sobering reckoning remains: PTI lost the fragility of its national appeal at the cost of an ill-conceived protest strategy.
