Regular readers will know that I occasionally write about the demographics of Türkiye in my articles. Turkish society is currently undergoing a deep socioeconomic transformation, and an important pillar of this transformation is demographic change. As the front line of the battle, aging is becoming an approaching threat to the Turkish welfare state day by day. On the one hand, the median age reached 34 for the first time in the history of the Republic of Türkiye in 2023, and on the other hand, the ratio of the elderly population in the total population rose to 10.2% in 2023, reaching double digits for the first time in the history of the republic.

The second leg of this transformation that Turkish society is going through can be seen in the rapid change in the family structure. Essentially, demographic transformation and change in family structure are two sides of the same coin. Türkiye's concept of family, cultural view of marriage and married population structure are changing swiftly. Forty years ago, 75% of Türkiye's population was rural, but now 75% of the population lives in cities. Factors such as urbanization, widespread education, and participation in the workforce have resulted in individuals marrying later, having fewer children, postponing having children and a significant increase in divorce rates. Turkish society has passed a critical threshold seen in all developing economies.

We have significant data confirming these findings. The latest family statistics from the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat), comparing the years 2008 to 2023, provide critical insights into the future of Turkish social structure and politics.

Traditional family disintegrating

According to the preliminary data from TurkStat on family structure, the average household size is in a steady and rapid downward trend. According to the data, while the average household size in Türkiye was four people in 2008, it has decreased steadily in recent years and diminished to 3.14 by 2023. The average number of households rises to 4.86 in the eastern and southeastern Anatolia regions, where the rural population is relatively higher and relatively less developed, and drops to 2.60 in the western provinces with a more developed socioeconomic structure.

One notable aspect of the TurkStat data is the rise in single-person households. In 2015, 14.4% of Turkish society lived alone; by last year, this figure had surged to 19.7%, a record high in the history of the republic. In other words, one in every five Turks now prefers to live alone.

According to the results of the Address Based Population Registration System (ABPRS), as positive data, there is a significant decrease in the rate of consanguineous marriages across the country. It is seen that the rate of consanguineous marriages decreased from 5.9% in 2010 to 3.2% by 2023. When looked at on a provincial basis, it shows that problems such as consanguineous marriage and child marriage are still common problems in eastern provinces with less developed socioeconomic structures, yet are showing amelioration.

Single parent rate on rise

As significant data, we see an increase in the number of single-parent families among Turks, along with a regular increase in divorce rates. While 7.8% of the population was single-parent families in 2015, this rate increased to 10.6% by 2023, almost reaching 10 million people. On the other hand, the rate of a nuclear family consisting of spouses and children decreased from 44.8% to 39.2%.

This data is influenced by, on the one hand, the increase in divorce rates and, on the other hand, the fact that young people are getting married much later than the previous generation. Likewise, the data shows that the traditional family structure is rapidly disintegrating. The data reveals that Turkish society is moving away from the traditional family structure, and with urbanization and modernization, atypical family models become widespread, as seen in Western societies.

Atypical families, namely households including individuals who do not have a relationship or parent-child relation with each other, are also observed to increase in the proportion of households consisting of more than one person without a nuclear family. The rate of these households increased from 2.2% in 2015 to 3.3% in 2023. This shows that there is an important segment of Turkish society that is not within the traditional family structure and needs to be reached through alternative social policy mechanisms if not to be reached with familial social work and social assistance.

Families shrinking

More data from TurkStat regarding population change analyzes the aging trend of Türkiye's population. According to the data, the proportion of households defined as extended family and consisting of at least one nuclear family and other people has decreased from 16.5% in 2015 to 13.2% in 2023. This data shows that the elderly, who were traditionally cared for in extended families, are now becoming lonely, traditional family models are dissolving, and the institutional medical and social care needs of Turkish society are increasing. It should be noted that while the number of extended families is higher in the eastern and southeastern provinces of Türkiye, it decreases chronically in the Western cities and metropolitan cities. This shows that metropolises and cities are places that will need more long-term care. The data exposes once again that Türkiye urgently needs to switch to a long-term care insurance system.

While the need for elderly care is becoming increasingly chronic, there is not yet a similar picture in the field of care needs of children in Türkiye. According to data, in 2023, out of 22 million 206,034 children in Türkiye, 351,000 have at least one parent. Since only around 5,000 of this number are children whose mother and father have passed away, it seems that the need for child care to be provided by the state in Türkiye is not high. It is a traditional informal welfare system in Türkiye that orphans and orphaned children are cared for by extended family members and informal daycare services are provided by grandmothers to children with working parents.

Family is the primary source of happiness

According to the data, the main source of happiness in Turkish society is their families. According to the results of TurkStat's 2023 Life Satisfaction Survey, when the people who are the source of happiness for individuals are examined, the rate of those who state that their families make them happiest is 69.9%, followed by their children with 15% and themselves with 5.4%. This is followed by his/her spouse with 2.9%, his/her parents with 2.9% and their grandchildren with 1.8%. This data shows that, despite the significant transformations in Turkish society, the family structure continues to act as a social glue.

On the other hand, data reveals that 171,213 children were affected by divorce events in the last year. As a result of divorce cases, it is seen that custody of children is mostly given to the mother, with a rate of 75%.

Increase in socioeconomic deprivation

Last of all, the TurkStat data shows that the foreign exchange crisis and inflation, especially in the last two years, have severely affected households in Turkish society. In this context, the latest data includes data on the deterioration in living conditions in Türkiye.

According to the results of the income and living conditions survey, the poverty rate will be 21.7% in 2023, according to the limit determined by taking into account 60% of the equivalent household disposable individual median income. When the poverty rate is examined by household type, it is observed that 13.7% of single-person households, 21.6% of households consisting of a single nuclear family and 25.7% of households consisting of extended families live below the poverty line.

Additionally, the results of the income and living conditions survey expose that when the ownership status of the house is examined in 2023, it is seen that 56.2% of the individuals own the home they live in, while 27.8% are tenants. Once more, according to the same survey, 32.6% of individuals had heating problems due to insulation in their homes in 2023, and 32% experienced problems such as leaky roofs, damp walls, rotten window frames, etc. Also, 19.8% of them experience air pollution, environmental pollution, or other problems caused by traffic or industry.

These data expose the effects of the decrease in purchasing power due to the cost-of-living crisis in the last two years. The decrease in the share of the salaried and retired sections in the national income by nearly 15% is the main reason for the deterioration. This data also reveals that the Turkish middle class is rapidly melting away, which may have important sociological and political consequences and be taken seriously by politicians.

As seen in the March 31 local elections, the middle and low-income segments, especially the retirees, have become kingmakers as a result of the effects of the economic crisis. There are urgent lessons that the Turkish government needs to learn from the data we have summarized above if it wants to maintain the support of broad segments of the public. While responding to the needs of the aging population and the expectations of Generation Z, it is also important to re-establish economic and financial stability. Stopping the severe purchasing power meltdown that wages earners and retirees have been experiencing since 2022 emerges as the most important confrontation before Türkiye. The last data exposes that reducing inflation rates, which have reached almost 70% on an annual basis, requires not only financial policies that favor the wealthy but also a social developmental approach that protects large segments of the public.