Thirty-two people were killed and almost 3,000 injured when explosives that targeted Hezbollah members' communication equipment shook southern Lebanon on Sept. 18-19, 2024. Although Israeli officials have not acknowledged any involvement, experts believe Mossad was involved in undermining Hezbollah's military capabilities, notwithstanding Hezbollah's allegations that Israel was orchestrating those attacks. These attacks have resulted in shelling along the Israel-Lebanon border, generating worries of an escalated conflict that regional and international parties are making attempts to de-escalate. These strikes are part of Israel's more comprehensive strategy to disrupt Hezbollah without sparking a full-scale war.

These unconventional attacks by Israel on Hezbollah are significant for Gulf security, particularly around two key questions: Is Israel's growing willingness to exert unconventional military influence and perceived recklessness a threat to regional countries? If so, does the continued U.S. and Western support for Israel, despite its actions, exacerbate Gulf countries’ trajectory for seeking alternative powerhouses or political/military order-makers, such as Russia, China or India? This article aims to answer these questions in light of the recent developments.

Israeli threat to the Gulf

Despite the fact that Hezbollah is viewed by Gulf states as a direct problem in Lebanon's political dynamics, mainly because of its inherent linkages to and robust support from Iran, Israel's unconventional strike on Hezbollah has caused alarm throughout Gulf nations. There are two layers to this concern. First, there is anxiety over Israel's maturing predisposition to employ unconventional and aggressive methods of warfare. Second, the Western countries' credibility in upholding the rules-based international order is being undermined by the growing uneasiness about their incapacity or unwillingness to hold Israel accountable.

Even if Hezbollah is still their regional enemy, Gulf countries worry that unrestrained Israeli activities, combined with passivity on the part of the West, could cause additional upheaval in the region.

Israel could pose a serious threat to the countries in the region, given their increasing inclination to resort to military force and its actions, which have been viewed as reckless. Although Israel frequently defends its actions – such as attacking Hezbollah's communications networks or launching airstrikes in reaction to rocket fire – as defensive or preventive measures, these moves have the potential to erode further the stability of the military posture in the region.

There could be cascading consequences on neighboring nations, especially Syria, Lebanon and even farther out Jordan, resulting in infrastructure damage, human casualties and economic instability. Moreover, Israel's forceful military posture, particularly in areas with high population density, raises the possibility of unintentional escalation, which might attract other regional players like Iran and ignite a wider conflict.

Israel's willingness to use sophisticated intelligence and military force, as seen in the September 2024 events, increases the risk of miscalculation and retaliatory attacks in the region. For regional countries, especially those like Jordan, Lebanon or Egypt, who have their own security concerns and are in proximity to Israel, this poses the danger of becoming embroiled in a conflict that could escalate beyond control. And one subregion that could become the victim of uncontrollable spillover effects is the Gulf itself.

Gulf’s security pivot to Asia

U.S. and Western support for Israel, despite its reckless military assertiveness, is contributing to a growing realignment in the Middle East. Gulf countries, traditionally relying on the U.S. as a security guarantor, are increasingly looking at alternative powerhouses such as Russia, China and India. At its core, the Gulf countries' shift toward non-Western actors is not solely due to the military instabilities caused by Israel and other regional players, nor is it just the cracks in the Western order. These recent instabilities merely complicate the process and amplify the impact of a broader realignment that has been brewing over the past few years.

Frustration with what they see as Western bias toward Israel – even when its actions cause instability in the region – is what is driving this movement. Growing economic, military and political connections with China and Russia – both of whom are viewed as less ideologically motivated and more focused on strategic and economic interests – have been made possible by the Gulf states, most notably Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

China's perspective on Israel's treatment of Hamas and other Gazan groups draws attention to a larger problem: the Western order's inability to keep the region stable. China's position here is consistent with that of the Gulf, as both countries recognize the shortcomings of frameworks driven by the West in resolving disputes and crises in the area. A common understanding of the limitations of the current international frameworks, particularly about conflict resolution and regional stability, is reflected in the convergence of interests between China and the Gulf.

China, in particular, has emerged as a key player through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), fostering deep economic ties with the Gulf. Meanwhile, Russia's involvement in Syria and its growing defense relations with Gulf countries suggest a willingness to fill the security vacuum that could emerge if trust in the U.S. wanes. China has become a major economic partner through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Russia has developed stronger military ties with several Gulf states, especially after its intervention in Syria. India, meanwhile, has emerged as a key trading partner, particularly in the energy and technology sectors. These relationships provide the Gulf countries with leverage, allowing them to engage with Western powers from a position of greater independence.

India, too, is expanding its diplomatic and economic outreach, positioning itself as a major player in the region’s evolving power dynamics. Thus, while the U.S. remains a critical ally, Gulf countries are actively diversifying their partnerships to avoid over-dependence on Western powers, especially in the context of Israel’s military recklessness. This trend indicates a potential reordering of the region's geopolitical alliances.​

Looking for alternative allies

The Gulf countries, especially Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar, have become more vocal in their concerns over the West’s perceived unwillingness to hold Israel accountable for its military actions. Despite some Gulf states normalizing relations with Israel (e.g., the Abraham Accords), there remains significant public and political pressure to address Israel’s actions, particularly regarding Palestine.

The Western reluctance to condemn or meaningfully hold Israel accountable for its actions has caused these nations to seek new geopolitical strategies without fully abandoning their ties with the U.S. and Europe.

Originally, with economic motivation, the BRICS framework (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) gained considerable attention from Gulf countries. Recent talks between the GCC foreign ministers and some of the BRICS foreign ministers have led to growing interest in expanding BRICS influence in the Gulf and the Middle East. This partnership with BRICS countries offers a counterbalance to the Western-dominated global order, providing the Gulf with alternative economic, political and security relationships.

Despite these new partnerships, the Gulf countries remain cautious about fully disengaging from the crumbling Western security architecture in the Middle East. The U.S. and European nations still provide essential security cooperation, arms sales and investment, and Gulf monarchies benefit from their alignment with Western powers on certain issues. However, they have adopted a pragmatic, multi-alignment strategy where they rhetorically maintain close relations with the West while simultaneously deepening their ties with non-Western powers. This approach allows them to enjoy the benefits of their traditional alliances while positioning themselves more strategically in a rapidly shifting global order.