My previous commentary regarding pensioners, published on April 12, gained significant attention. In that commentary, I highlighted that more than 16 million pensioners were disproportionately affected by the economic crisis and predicted that they would be a critical voter group in the March 31 local Turkish elections. My predictions turned out to be accurate; the protest voting behavior of low-income segments, especially retirees, was the determining factor in the outcome, as confirmed by all political analysts. While the election participation rate decreased by around a decisive 10%, reaching the lowest in the last 30 years, it was observed that among those who cast their ballots, pensioners and low-income segments voted in protest, thereby strengthening the small conservative parties and opposition. This election has undeniably shown that pensioners have become a major determining force in Turkish politics.

But why and how have pensioners become the critical voter group of Türkiye? Beyond this, what are the political demands of retirees and what would meeting or not meeting these demands mean for the next decade of Turkish politics? I have summarized the answers to these questions and delved further into the analysis of the phenomenon of Turkish pensioners becoming the kingmaker in Turkish politics in recent years. I believe that the determinations I provide give significant insights into the prospects of Turkish politics and will be referred to by many analysts of Turkish politics.

Demographic transformation of Türkiye

The primary reason pensioners are important is that Türkiye is going through a demographic transformation. Considered a young population country until recently, it has started to shift with an aging population, according to the United Nations criteria as of 2023. In 2023, the elderly population reached a historic high of 10.1%, signaling the onset of a looming aging crisis and further narrowing of the window of opportunity.

Notably, Türkiye experienced a significant decline in its annual population growth in 2023, with the growth rate dropping from 7.1 per thousand in 2022 to just 1.1 per thousand. This represents a record low, compounded by a fertility rate that now falls below the population renewal threshold of 2.1. The median age has steadily risen from 27-29 in 2007 to 33-35 in 2023, with projections indicating further increases to 35.6 in 2030, 38.5 in 2040, 42.3 in 2060, and 45.0 in 2080, and this is just the optimist projection.

In his recent statement regarding these statistics, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan described the latest situation as "an existential threat" for the country. "We are below the 2.1 level (in terms of fertility rate), which is the population renewal threshold. Frankly, this is an existential threat for Türkiye; it is a disaster," he said.

"As we saw this picture, we were constantly recommending three children per family. Unfortunately, time proved us right in our predictions. The importance of our call for at least three children is better understood today. Population is our greatest strength as a nation, and we have to protect it. We will be more determined on these issues in the coming period," he added.

Traditionally reliant on its youthful population in its development strategies, Türkiye is undergoing a transformative shift that would have not just societal but macroeconomic consequences. This demographic transition marks a critical juncture, signaling a trajectory toward irreversible change. No need to be alarmed, as this was a change all developed countries passed through, but only if to be prepared.

Largest voter segment

This has political consequences. As a first in Turkish electoral history, the number of newly retired pensioners to be voting, totaling 2.1 million, surpasses the number of youth casting the ballot for the first time in the election, which was 1.1 million.

From this viewpoint, retirees constitute one of the most significant voter demographics in today's Türkiye. The nation presently counts around 16.1 million retirees, with expectations indicating a rise to 16.5 million by the year's end. With the recent pension overhaul of 2023, 2 million more get retired in their early ages. The recent reform is anticipated to facilitate early retirement for as many as 5 million individuals over the next decade, potentially pushing the total number of pensioners to 20 million before 2030. This figure surpasses the population of numerous European countries which would and should ring bells for any country.

Retirees are on track to become the largest social demographic in Türkiye. The proportion of elderly, aged 65 and above, has risen from 6.7% at the turn of the millennium to 10.1% (approximately 9 million people) in 2023. Conversely, the share of the young population aged 15-24 in the total population shrunk from 19% in 2000 to below 14% (approximately 12 million people) by 2023. In essence, these figures expose that the elderly are emerging as a dominant voter bloc, with significant political ramifications for Türkiye's future elections.

Power of purchasing crisis

Another major reason why the pensioners became critical for Turkish politics is that they are the largest segment of society affected drastically by the decline in the power of the purchasing crisis of recent years. The currency crisis and the subsequent inflationary environment dramatically reduced the purchasing power of retirees. While the workers and public servants got the chance to align their budget, at least partially, by comparatively higher minimum wage and salary rises, the pensioners couldn’t get a chance to catch up.

The most prominent indicator of this gap will be seen in the approaching Qurban Bayram, also known as Eid al-Adha. Turkish pensioners are paid a bonus for two religious holidays within a year by the Social Security Institution. Two years ago, the Eid bonus was TL 2,000. At the time, the price for sacrificing small cattle was TL 2,250, as announced by the Presidency of Religious Affairs. In other words, a pensioner was able to buy a sacrificial animal and bring meat into his home with his Eid bonus by adding just a small amount.

Now, the holiday bonus amount for retirees is TL 3,000. However, the price of sacrificing small cattle by proxy announced by the Presidency of Religious Affairs is TL 11,750 this year. In other words, even if three retirees come together and unite, they cannot buy a small sacrificing animal, let to buy alone. This reveals how high the real decline in purchasing power of pensions is. In an environment where 2024 has been declared the Year of Retirees, this is striking.

Who would pay the bill?

Türkiye is going through an ambitious financial and monetary program, which is aiming to reestablish macroeconomic stability. A return to orthodox economic policies and strengthening budget control are the main themes of the program. Yet, vulnerable sections of society are required to be protected with some form of mechanism. Precautions that will increase the purchasing power of retirees must be taken without delay. It would not be wrong to predict that if retirees are completely sacrificed to ultra-orthodox economic policies, their preferences as voters will change even further and alternative parties such as the New Welfare Party (YRP) will become even stronger, as seen in the last local elections. While trying to establish financial stability and budget balance, it is not right to impose the entire bill on retirees who are not responsible for this crisis and to expect sacrifices beyond their means while the upper classes are enjoying their wealth.

In the last local elections of Türkiye, the so-called rule in political science "empty pots make you lose elections" worked in Turkish politics for the first time in two decades and has the potential to turn into a critical juncture for the future of Turkish politics. "Empty pots" is a phrase used in Turkish political discourse, often attributed to Süleyman Demirel, a prominent Turkish politician who served as prime minister and president of Türkiye. The phrase refers to the notion that an empty pot, symbolizing discontent or dissatisfaction among the electorate, can have significant political consequences.

Some analysts defend that, as there are no elections in Türkiye for four years, for budget control purposes, the pensioners can be set aside, a step not considered a problem for the government, as the inflation is expected to decline by the next general elections in 2028. However, this analysis is quite shortsighted. Leaving pensioners at the mercy of ultra-orthodox monetary policies has the potential to break the "emotional bond" between the ruling Justice Development Party (AK Party) and the large voter cohorts. The Turkish electorate thinks with reasoning but votes with emotions. If the pensioners would be felt "left alone" this would have serious consequences in terms of politics.

Winning the hearts and souls

So far, retirees have been Erdoğan’s most loyal voter base. The fact that the president had a dominant influence on pensioner voters in the last two decades is a defining theme of Turkish politics. Research shows that while the AK Party's voting rate is low among youth, it exceeds 60% among the elderly and retirees. This was so, as Erdoğan has implemented regulations that protect retirees and the elderly on a number of issues, from health care to care services, from social benefits to early retirement policies.

But in the March 31 local elections, many pensioners refused to go to the ballot, which we see clearly in the high decline of election participation rates, or they cast protest votes for smaller parties. Thus, responding to the demands of the pensioners is a critical issue for the government. In fact, it is a matter of keeping the support of large cohorts of society, especially the low- and middle-income classes, who have largely benefited from the AK Party policies within the last 20 years. Safeguarding the pensioners in 2024 and 2025, as much as the budget possibilities allow, is not just a policy issue, but a theme to be definitive for the future of Turkish politics. Otherwise, the red card of the pensioners given in the last election has the potential of becoming an avalanche.

With Türkiye's aging population, politicians' ability to address the needs of retirees and the elderly has become predominantly vital. Retirees seek adequate pensions for a decent standard of living, prioritized health care services and access to quality social care. Cosmetic changes cannot be effective unless a real increase in the purchasing power of retirees can be achieved. Politicians capable of devising practical and enduring solutions to these multifaceted challenges and effectively communicating them will hold an advantage. This issue is too significant for any politician to ignore, as Turkish pensioners will remain a crucial voting bloc in the political landscape for the next decade. Failing to respond to pensioners, and failing to identify their role as kingmakers in Turkish politics, would be a serious mistake for any Turkish politician.