We have entered a period where the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia, alongside Qatar, are taking center stage in relations with the Taliban. The UAE has recently sought to enhance its influence in Afghanistan by establishing direct ties with the Taliban, as seen in securing contracts for managing Afghan airports. Along with Saudi Arabia, the UAE was one of the three countries, alongside Pakistan, that recognized the Taliban regime from 1996 to 2001. The UAE’s close relations with the Taliban primarily reflect its broader objectives in regional politics and economic opportunities.

Meanwhile, Qatar, since Oct. 7, has been more focused on regional political developments centered on Gaza and Hamas, resulting in a foreign policy shift. This has made it both a preference and a necessity for the Taliban to strengthen ties with the other Gulf countries. Although actors like Russia and China have engaged in extensive contact through their representatives, the Taliban has not yet been officially recognized by any state. Nonetheless, the Taliban has recently begun diversifying its foreign policy, reinforcing its political engagements with other Gulf states such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia.

Although the developments between Israel and Gaza-based groups after Oct. 7 have largely occupied Qatar's foreign policy efforts, especially regarding the need for facilitating communication between Hamas and other groups with the international community, it may not be accurate to say that these events have directly weakened Qatar-Taliban relations. The Taliban’s desire to strengthen ties with Gulf actors like the UAE also stems from its own internal dynamics. While certain factions within the Taliban prefer closer relations with Doha, others reportedly advocate for stronger connections with Abu Dhabi. Considering these internal dynamics, the UAE’s steps to enhance relations with the Taliban, especially during a time when Qatar is more focused on Hamas and Israel, can be seen as a significant move.

UAE-Taliban partnership

The idea that establishing relations with the Taliban and gaining influence over the group holds significant value for Gulf countries in their relations with the U.S. seems plausible. Since August 2022, the U.S. has adopted a pragmatic engagement policy with the Taliban recognizing the need for dialogue. However, given the challenges of directly engaging with the Taliban, the U.S. has relied on key partners to maintain this engagement indirectly. In this context, countries like the UAE and Saudi Arabia have played important roles by gaining influence over the Taliban, thus shaping diplomatic matters. Washington’s approach allows these nations to position themselves as key regional interlocutors.

The August visit of the UAE's president, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed (MBZ) to meet Taliban Prime Minister Mullah Hassan Akhund, who was receiving medical treatment in the UAE, marks a critical point in the development of relations between the UAE and Afghanistan’s Taliban-led government. This visit highlights several key aspects of the UAE's approach to Afghanistan and underscores the broader geopolitical dynamics in the region. The visit primarily underscores the UAE’s strategic interest in deepening its ties with the Taliban, particularly as it seeks to play a more prominent role in Afghanistan's reconstruction and development. By securing contracts such as the management of Afghanistan’s international airports, the UAE has been actively engaging with the Taliban. MBZ's visit could further solidify the UAE’s position as a key player in Afghanistan’s future, reinforcing its role as a significant factor in the country’s post-conflict rebuilding efforts.

Secondly, this visit can be seen as part of the UAE's broader realpolitik strategy. The UAE is leveraging its economic power and diplomatic influence to carve out a role for itself in Afghanistan. By establishing direct ties with the Taliban leadership, the UAE positions itself as a critical ally for the Taliban, potentially paving the way for the future recognition of the internationally unrecognized Taliban government. Considering that the UAE had recognized the Taliban between 1996-2001 – despite the changes in the Taliban's structure, Middle Eastern politics and the UAE's foreign policy – this possibility seems even more plausible.

Furthermore, this visit is a pragmatic move aimed at safeguarding the UAE's regional security and economic interests. The UAE's approach reflects an understanding of the internal dynamics within the Taliban. MBZ, who has recently held meetings with figures like Sirajuddin Haqqani, may be creating a new role for the Taliban within the UAE’s foreign policy. By engaging with figures like Haqqani and others within the Taliban who may align more closely with its interests, the UAE positions itself as a counterbalance to Qatar's influence. Given Qatar's recent criticism of the Taliban, particularly on issues such as women's rights – criticisms that may have caused friction in their relations – the UAE's role becomes increasingly clear from the Taliban’s perspective.

The Iran dimension

The UAE’s relationship with the Taliban and its growing influence in Afghanistan can be interpreted through the lens of the Iran-Gulf balance of power. Saudi Arabia and the UAE, two actors facing similar threats from Iran while also competing with each other, have developed different strategies to ensure their national security. As is well known, the UAE is one of the countries in the normalization process with Israel, known as the Abraham Accords. In this context, Abu Dhabi has increasingly relied on the U.S. for security through its normalized relations with Tel Aviv. Meanwhile, U.S. pressure and encouragement for Riyadh to normalize relations with Israel have persisted, even after the Oct. 7 events. At this point, Riyadh has taken a markedly different approach by normalizing relations with Tehran, facilitated by Iraq and Oman, with China acting as a mediator.

Thus, while Riyadh seeks to remain outside the sphere of the Israel-Iran tension by normalizing with Tehran, the UAE’s regional policy appears to be shaped by the potential outcome of normalizing with Israel. Currently, the UAE is prominently increasing its influence in Afghanistan through strategic investments in infrastructure and transportation facilities. This geopolitical shift makes the potential UAE-Taliban rapprochement problematic for Iran’s security. In other words, under the current circumstances, the UAE’s focus on Afghanistan may serve the interests of both the U.S. and Israel and could be viewed as part of the broader strategy to encircle Iran.

The UAE's Afghanistan strategy

One of the most prominent examples of the UAE’s role in Afghanistan’s reconstruction is its management of key infrastructure projects. In 2022, the UAE signed a major contract to manage Afghanistan’s main international airports, including those in Kabul, Kandahar and Herat. This agreement underscores Abu Dhabi's strategic interest in controlling critical infrastructure in Afghanistan. Managing these airports has not only provided the UAE with significant economic leverage but has also positioned it as a central actor in Afghanistan’s logistical and security matters.

Additionally, the UAE has been working to bolster its strategy by encouraging Afghan businesspeople and investors, most of whom reside in the Emirates, to reinvest in Afghanistan. The remittances sent back by approximately 150,000 Afghans living and working in the UAE play a crucial role in Afghanistan’s economy, particularly in provinces like Khost. The UAE's access to this expatriate community can be viewed as part of a broader strategy to channel financial resources into Afghanistan’s reconstruction. Given the Taliban government's challenges with international sanctions and limited access to global financial systems, this effort is particularly significant.

Beyond economic investments, the UAE has also played an active role in providing humanitarian aid and supporting development projects in Afghanistan. The Emirates Red Crescent has been involved in various initiatives aimed at delivering health care, education and emergency relief to vulnerable populations in the country. This aid not only contributes to the UAE’s broader efforts to build soft power and influence in the region but also addresses the immediate humanitarian needs of the Afghan people.

From a diplomatic perspective, it can be said that the UAE’s relationship with the Taliban represents a cautiously developed connection that is becoming increasingly open to the public. The recent visit of MBZ to meet with Taliban Prime Minister Mullah Hassan Akhund symbolizes the UAE’s willingness to engage directly with the Taliban leadership. This engagement is not only about maintaining diplomatic ties but is also seen as a potential precursor to the formal recognition of the Taliban government. The UAE’s diplomatic maneuvers are closely watched by other regional actors, particularly Qatar, which has served as the primary mediator between the Taliban and the West.

Security is another critical area of the UAE’s presence in Afghanistan and its relationship with the Taliban. Through its management of Afghanistan’s airports and engagement with the Taliban’s security circles, the UAE positions itself as a key partner in regional security efforts. This relationship is particularly significant given the ongoing threats posed by groups like Daesh-Khorasan Province (Daesh-K), which continue to destabilize Afghanistan. The UAE’s investments in Afghanistan’s security infrastructure also reflect broader security concerns in the Gulf region.

The U.S. position

The U.S. remains a pivotal player in these dynamics. Despite claims of a cooling relationship, Qatar continues to serve as an important intermediary between the Taliban and the West, particularly the U.S. Washington has shown its reliance on Doha by previously operating its missions from there, especially concerning humanitarian aid and counterterrorism efforts. At the same time, the U.S. has adopted a pragmatic strategy in maintaining relations with other regional actors like the UAE, which has played a role in indirectly reshaping alliances.

In this regard, the UAE may view Qatar’s close ties with Hamas as an opportunity to position itself as a more neutral or pragmatic player in Afghanistan. By directly engaging with the Taliban and offering economic incentives, the UAE presents itself as a partner less entangled in the complex dynamics of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and Middle Eastern politics. As Qatar increasingly focuses its resources and diplomatic attention on the Hamas-Israel conflict, the UAE could seize this opportunity to strengthen its ties with the Taliban, positioning itself as a more reliable and focused partner in the region.