Relations between Russia and the West have reached their most tense point since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war in February 2022. While Europe has sided with Ukraine, Russia is seeking alternatives to counter Western sanctions.
In contrast to the efforts to advance liberal democracy in the 1990s post-Cold War era, the current situation resembles a repetition of the Cold War dynamics. The confrontations between Europe and Russia have escalated, particularly with the continued expansion of NATO, leading to heightened security and military tensions. Notably, Sweden, a country that has steadfastly maintained its military prowess within the international system since the Cold War, finds itself caught in the crossfire.
Although NATO's military branch has not taken definitive actions to prepare for war with Russia, France's recent shift in stance toward Russia has drawn attention. While Europe continues to offer financial and military aid to Ukraine, support levels are gradually waning, reflecting a war-weariness sentiment. French President Emmanuel Macron's remarks suggesting the potential defeat of Russia have sparked debate, signaling a potential shift in the trajectory. However, it remains uncertain whether other European nations will align with Macron's stance.
Despite Macron's rhetoric, there have been no official efforts to deploy troops to the region. The motivation behind Macron's statements may stem from either assuming a Napoleon-like role or seeking retribution for the Niger crisis that unfolded earlier in the summer.
After the military coup in Niger in the summer of 2023, the country shifted its political stance against the West, marked by the display of Russian flags and growing hostility toward Western nations. Despite economic ties with several Western countries, France, as Niger's primary economic partner, was discontented with this shift. With France maintaining a military base in Niger and the nation being a major uranium producer, particularly for France's nuclear energy needs, a quarter of its uranium was sold to Europe, fostering significant wealth. However, mounting Russian influence eventually undermined France's power in the region.
Following protests post-coup, France began withdrawing its military presence not only from Niger but also from the broader Sahel region of Africa. Consequently, changes in countries like Burkina Faso, Guinea, Mali, Chad, Niger and Gabon have been closely monitored by Western powers with concern.
It is worth questioning the effectiveness of Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), a regional organization active for 49 years. Recently, the influence of the organization has decreased with the withdrawal of Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso from ECOWAS membership. As Western influence in the region has decreased, Russia's power has increased, leading to ongoing sanctions against Russia. The decline in the power of Europe, especially France, in the region is effective in Russia filling this vacant space. While France and ECOWAS are losing their power in the military and economic fields, it can be said that the power vacuum has made room for actors such as Russia and China. As of September 2023, Macron's announcement that he will withdraw his ambassador from Niger and end military cooperation with the country has, in a sense, demonstrated his defeat in the region.
It could be argued that France's previous failure influenced Macron's eagerness to provide military support to Ukraine in Africa. Macron believes that if Russia is defeated in Ukraine, it would open up opportunities for France to regain its dominance in African foreign policy. However, recent strong statements regarding the possibility of Russia's defeat raise questions about the feasibility of Macron's support for Ukraine. Given that Macron is facing political repercussions due to recent losses in foreign policy, such as the rise of the far right in France and his decreasing popularity, he needs to boldly move in foreign policy to gain support. France may take a stance against Russia in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, which is essentially a proxy war between the West and Russia.
Is Macron attempting to follow in Napoleon Bonaparte's footsteps to gain greater domestic power?
As we know, Napoleon was an immensely talented military strategist who dominated Europe during his reign as Emperor in 1804. However, his war with Russia ultimately led to his downfall. The question is whether Macron needs to reconsider his stance on international relations. History plays a critical role in shaping these relationships, and it is essential not to forget its lessons. When asked about Macron's statement regarding deploying troops to Ukraine, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov responded with laughter.
France's statements about sending troops to Ukraine raise questions about the approach of the United States and NATO. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has expressed his thoughts on what changes may occur if former U.S. President Donald Trump is reelected. Orban believes that Trump's statement regarding the withholding of financial aid to Ukraine, which is currently engaged in a conflict with Russia, could lead to the end of the war. However, relations between the West and Russia continue to be tense. The U.S. has announced that it will provide Kyiv an "emergency military support" package worth $300 million. While the reduction in support may indicate a potential for reconciliation and agreement, Ukraine, Russia and Western countries have yet to release a joint statement.
Currently, we are in a period where the threat of nuclear weapons is increasing as the Russia-Ukraine War approaches its end. This situation also raises concerns about a possible world war in which France, as a NATO member, would engage in a conflict against Russia. This situation may not only lead to France confronting Russia on Ukrainian territory but also to a war between Russia and NATO. The question must be asked: How much responsibility will France take for this step that could lead to a major world war? Because the decisions of leaders affect the people. In this respect, are Macron's statements merely an attempt to create a Napoleon in domestic politics, or will they appear as an attempt to create a Napoleon in foreign policy?
