Indubitably, Europeans are grappling with a perplexing conundrum: trying to strike a balance between maintaining NATO's cohesion while avoiding any hint of discord and simultaneously yearning for political strategic autonomy. The juxtaposition of these aspirations unveils a paradox in the continent's geopolitical stance. Their concerted efforts to fortify NATO's unity appear consistent, projecting a united front on the global stage while sidestepping any semblance of internal strife. Yet, in a parallel pursuit, desperation to enhance their intervention capabilities within European security and defense policy and NATO is also very much palpable. Their main challenge lies in navigating these ambitions without igniting internal divisions or jeopardizing the trans-Atlantic alliance.
However, the Ukraine conflict has added new impetus to this discourse of intertwining the European Union's quest for strategic autonomy with the question of Europe’s need of acquiring a credible nuclear deterrent of its own, which would operate under NATO's command. An article published recently in the Atlantic Council, authored jointly by figures like Gen. Klaus Naumann, former chairperson of NATO's military committee; Adm. Jacques Lanxade, former joint chief of staff of the French Armed Forces; Denis-MacShane, former U.K. minister of Europe; and Margarita Mathiopoulos, has set ablaze a fresh debate by adding s new angle concerning the EU's nuclear deterrent capabilities.
The article advocates several vital initiatives, such as enhancing the competitiveness and innovativeness of Europe's military-industrial complex, permanently raising defense spending beyond 2% of respective gross domestic products (GDPs), and creating an interoperable European military mechanism spanning NATO and non-NATO European nations. Notably, it ardently presses for the establishment of EU nuclear deterrence as a crucial and assertive measure.
“Europe needs a credible nuclear deterrent of its own, under NATO command. Only a trilateral British, French, and German nuclear umbrella, combined with a United States umbrella, all under the command and control of the Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR) will be a credible deterrent for Russia,” recommends the article.
Undoubtedly, this proposal is quite belligerent in nature, urging a non-nuclear Germany and the United Kingdom, an ex-EU member, to collaborate with France, the sole nuclear power in the EU, to form a united nuclear deterrence against Moscow. Without going into the debate on the intricacies and feasibility of this proposal, it is apparent that the campaign for the EU's strategic autonomy, led by French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, is gaining rapid traction and support from academia, politicians, and military leaders across Europe.
The Ukraine conflict, marking the first significant war on the European continent involving Russia since the demise of the Soviet Union, has unveiled two harsh realities for the Europeans. Firstly, it has exposed their inordinate reliance on the U.S. for defense matters. Secondly, it has also revealed that Washington wields absolute political leverage to steer their future trajectory according to its own caprices. The war in Ukraine has ruthlessly laid bare the dismal state of European defense capabilities, reminiscent of the situation witnessed in the former Yugoslav republics during the late 1990s. It is an alarming reminder of Europe's continued reliance on the United States to wage war on its own soil. The events unfolding on the eastern front expose a sobering reality that despite progress made, European nations remain vulnerable and unprepared to shoulder the burden of safeguarding their continent independently. The primary reason behind this trend is the Europeans' complacency that settled in after the disintegration of the Soviet Union. In the wake of this historical event, they gradually reduced their defense spending and capabilities while excessively relying on the U.S. – and NATO.
It is an undeniable fact that without generous military support from the U.S., Kyiv's ability to resist Russians would have been seriously compromised, and the EU lacks sufficient military resources to defend Ukraine independently. Perhaps this “helplessness” has cajoled the Europeans to start thinking about strategic autonomy and nuclear deterrence. The Ukraine conflict has also convinced the Europeans that although conventional forces still form the backbone of collective defense, nuclear deterrence has become an even more decisive factor in modern warfare.
At the moment, the "nuclear umbrella" for the EU is provided by the U.S. and U.K. nuclear forces integrated into NATO. Notably, French nuclear forces aren't extended to other European countries, even though the security of the EU is interlinked with that of France, as emphasized by successive French presidents. Ambiguity on the EU’s strategic autonomy only breeds uncertainty. That is why the notion of an integrated EU military command alongside NATO still remains elusive. European leaders must deftly maneuver this intricate web of priorities, forging a path that embraces discipline and unity without relinquishing their aspirations for an autonomous role in shaping the political landscape. Finding equilibrium in this equation is paramount as they confront new uncertainties, where diplomacy and defense intertwine.
The EU's reliance on Washington for security becomes evident when we observe the palpable wariness among most EU leaders regarding the outcome of the upcoming 2024 U.S. presidential race. This election's results could significantly influence Europe's association with NATO, accentuating the intricate interplay between transatlantic ties and the EU's security landscape.
A fear is hovering in the air that if former U.S. President Donald Trump or another Republican president is elected, NATO's defense support might diminish, with a potential shift in U.S. military focus toward Asia and the Indo-Pacific. This kind of speculation is causing massive anxiety among the EU leaders. That is the reason why the mantra of strategic autonomy and nuclear deterrence is gaining momentum in Europe.
Though still in the embryonic stage, the push for EU-managed nuclear deterrence is set to gain traction as a growing number of European nations endorse the idea of the EU's strategic autonomy.
