As farmers' protests persist across Europe, despite EU concessions, they highlight geopolitical challenges extending beyond agriculture, climate change and the energy crisis
Europe is currently witnessing a significant wave of farmers' protests spanning several countries, including France, Germany, Poland, Romania, Spain, Belgium, Czechia, Latvia and Italy. While these protests ostensibly arise as a backlash against the European Union's Green Deal, a policy initiative aimed at fostering environmental sustainability, a closer inspection reveals a more complex picture. These demonstrations are not merely reactions to environmental policy but are indicative of a multitude of intertwined factors affecting Europe.
Europe's climate crisis is a significant concern in this context. The 2003 heat wave led to 70,000 deaths and economic losses of 15 billion euros ($16.2 billion) in Southern Europe. A similar crisis in 2018 affected Northern and Central Europe, besides causing significant agricultural damage and leading to the worst United Kingdom drought of the post-1976 period. Since 2018, Europe has experienced ongoing droughts, peaking in 2022 as the worst in 500 years, which severely impacted crop yields and exacerbated the energy crisis by reducing hydroelectric power generation and increasing production costs.
Energy crisis and Ukraine's role
Other key issues include the energy crisis and the Ukraine conflict. In 2021, EU energy prices surged due to increased demand after the COVID-19 pandemic and higher gas consumption in Asia. The crisis intensified in 2022 with the Ukraine conflict, leading to record-high energy prices as Russia cut gas supplies to the EU, affecting electricity costs linked to fossil fuels. The EU continues to grapple with this crisis, with energy prices in the eurozone climbing from 110 points in 2020 to 148.26 points by January. This energy crisis, alongside climate change, has contributed to soaring food inflation, significantly reducing household purchasing power, with EU inflation rates jumping from 0.2% in November 2020 to 11.5% in October 2022.
In 2022, the EU removed duties to aid Ukraine, recognizing its economic reliance on agriculture and steel. Ukraine has since become a key EU supplier that provides substantial amounts of cereals, sunflower oil and poultry. However, this surge of lower-priced Ukrainian goods has concerned farmers in Bulgaria, Poland, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia, who feel their market shares are threatened by Ukraine's competitive prices. In response, Poland and Hungary banned Ukrainian agricultural imports in April 2023, and in January 2024, Poland secured an EU deal to limit Ukrainian food exports.
EU agricultural crisis and trans-Atlantic tensions
The recent EU farmers' protests, highlighting a deepening agricultural crisis and straining Western alliance cohesion amid the Ukraine crisis, drew critical attention from the United States. The U.S. criticized the EU's "farm to fork" strategy as "protectionist," with a U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) study warning of possible food price increases between 20% and 53% alongside a potential gross domestic product (GDP) decline.
The EU, known for its protective agricultural policy, allocates a third of its budget to the Common Agriculture Policy (CAP), investing over 2.5 billion euros from 2014 to 2023 to support its agricultural sector through challenges like the COVID-19 pandemic and the Ukraine conflict. This investment includes 450 million euros for the wine sector, a 500 million euros in 2022 relief package for Ukraine-affected producers, 156 million euros for Eastern European farmers competing with Ukrainian imports and 330 million euros last year for farmers facing high production costs and extreme weather impacts. Historically, such measures have secured the EU's position as a top global agricultural exporter, with a consistent trade surplus. Notably, five of the top 10 global exporters of agricultural products in 2022 were from the EU, showcasing its significant role in the global market.
Farmers' unrest, far-right surge: Challenges for EU climate goals
A final issue of great concern is the rise of Europe's far-right. Protests against nitrogen emission cuts in the Netherlands are likely to have contributed to Geert Wilders' electoral win and the Dutch Farmer-Citizen movement's success in provincial elections. In Germany, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) used farmers' protests to challenge the government, rising in polls and stirring controversy on social media.
The "Made in Europe" food campaign gained traction in Germany and Austria amid discussions on EU agricultural policy. In France, National Rally's Jordan Bardella accused President Emmanuel Macron of damaging agriculture, while protestors criticized EU regulations for burdening small farmers. Marion Marechal pointed to the European Green Deal as a focal point of farmer dissatisfaction. Across Europe, far-right movements are increasingly aligning with farmers' protests, sidelining traditional advocacy channels in countries like Italy and Ireland.
Recent polls suggest the European Parliament election results in June 2024 might hinder climate initiatives, with a potential shift toward right-wing sentiment challenging the enactment of ambitious climate policies. The election will determine the composition of the 705-member EU Parliament, which is crucial for passing EU policies. Forecasts indicate a rise in populist, right-wing parties and a decline in center-left and green parties, with the former potentially forming a coalition against climate action.
After extensive farmers' protests in Europe, the European Commission relaxed sustainability requirements and adjusted its stance on Ukrainian agricultural imports. In response to political pressures, European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen scaled back parts of the Green Deal, notably scrapping a pesticide reduction plan and adjusting agricultural emissions targets, marking a significant policy shift influenced by concerns over far-right political gains.
A test for European unity?
Despite the EU's attempts to placate farmers with concessions, these developments underscore a geopolitical turmoil that extends far beyond the realms of agriculture, climate change and energy crisis. Firstly, Brexit, coupled with the ascent of right-wing populism and extremism fueled by xenophobia and Euroskepticism, struck a significant blow to the project of European integration. Therefore, a potential consequence of the farmers' protests could be an intensification of the EU's existential crisis, highlighting deepening divisions within the union.
Secondly, the protests' demands for protectionism against Ukraine and the EU's subsequent concessions at the expense of Ukrainian agricultural exports have significantly eroded the EU's professed solidarity with Ukraine, challenging the union's coherence and credibility on the international stage.
Finally, the U.S. criticism of the European Green Deal and protectionism, along with the perceived abandonment of Ukraine, has, to a certain extent, undermined the credibility and unity of the trans-Atlantic alliance as a whole.