Seldom had an election to the European Parliament been the focus of such widespread attention. The 2024 vote was simply different – commentators had warned ahead of the four days of voting according to national traditions that far-right political parties might win big time.
However, as we know by now, they did not gain a majority, which written with all modesty was never really on the cards anyway. But nevertheless – we are faced with a shocking reality: One in every four European voters ticked a far-right party box on the ballot paper. To be more precise: The far-right movement came out on top in three countries, France, Italy and Austria. In two further nations, they managed to reach the runners-up positions, namely Germany and the Netherlands. Although starting as individual nation-state-based political candidates once elected, they come together under the umbrella of transnational groupings.
In the case of far-right tendencies, we shall witness the European Conservatives and Reformists holding 73 seats, the grouping labeled Identity and Democracy 58, and non-attached deputies including the German Alternative for Germany (AfD) politicians 45 seats. Taken together this adds up to 176 members of parliament (MEP). Percentage-wise we then realize that just under a quarter of the entire electorate voted far-right – while some may say a remarkable success story (of course only if you sympathize with far-right notions), others rather ring the alarm bells and argue what an irritating outcome.
The overall composition of the 2024-2029 European Parliament remains mainstream. As in the past, the faction of the European People’s Party (EPP), i.e., Conservatives with 186 seats, plus the Socialists and Democrats (S&D) with 135 seats, lead the field. If we add the Liberals (Renew grouping) or perhaps the Greens, we achieve a working majority of over 361, which is the required figure. One might say it's a mainstream centrist majority, perhaps even more so if it involves support from the Liberals instead of the grassroots-inclined Greens. Please note that this data is correct as of June 12 mid-morning, with very minor modifications still possible but no principal changes.
Despite the mainstream political groupings' majority in the new EP, the results in some countries are a serious wake-up call for many centrist parties, with France being a perfect case in point. Having dramatically lost out to Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN), President Emmanuel Macron immediately called for snap elections at the end of June. We must note that these will be elections for the national parliament and not presidential elections, which are still not due for a few more years.
Observers in Paris and beyond are surprised by Macron’s motives – is it to stem the tide and tell his own voters that this was a mistake, and please vote mainstream again? Or is it basically admitting defeat and engaging in a democratic exercise of sorts? It remains to be seen if he can achieve a complete reversal of the EP vote unless some far-right supporters would prefer Macron to obtain a working majority in the national assembly instead of embarking on an all-out RN course.
Talking about snap elections, there may be more to come as rumors have it that Belgium could be a candidate at some point after summer or even Germany, as the conservative opposition to what is referred to as the current Traffic Light Coalition (Social Democrats, Greens, Liberals) immediately asked Chancellor Olaf Scholz to do the same as Macron. Will he, would he, remains to be seen, and the outcome would be equally uncertain, to say the least. Staying in that picture of uncertainty at the ballot box, figuratively speaking, we now hop across the English Channel to another European country, albeit no longer being part of the European Union but European nevertheless: the United Kingdom and another snap poll, as we all know, scheduled for July 4 of this year.
At stake is Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, faced with polls suggesting that his own Conservative Party would do badly come election day. Yet, this is the surprise factor inherent in Sunak’s decision – why go to the polls right now in the first place? He could have waited until after summer or even mid-to-late autumn, guessing that voters would have time to shift allegiance back to the Tories once again. But with his last-minute decision for a snap poll three weeks from today, if there is one thing he does not have is time!
So, what do the aggregated polls say? Let us assume there could still be a 5% margin either way. Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour currently stands at 44% of the public vote, while Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives stand at 22%. The Liberals are in the region of 10%, and the Greens hover at around 6%. The political party formerly known as the Brexit Party, now called Reform and clearly right-wing, seems to score 14% of votes.
Hence, there is a far-right-wing political party active in the U.K., same as in the European Union, and projections say it is going to win seats. But as the British voting system is entirely different from that of most other European nations, the above-mentioned general percentage points are not the key measure for success. In Britain, we see the "first past the post" voting system; despite criticism from smaller parties, it stays put. This results in Labour’s 44% of the total vote most likely leading to an absolute majority in parliament, the House of Commons. There is no proportional representation as, for example, in Germany. The Tories could witness their worst-ever election outcome, as Labour aims at 400 seats in the 650-seat parliament, with the Tories, according to some surveys, winning nothing more than between 66 and 100 seats.
Sunak took his entire party by surprise – it seems all but impossible to run an efficient election campaign from scratch within a number of weeks. Labour has the same problem, but leading in the polls and riding high on voter sentiment makes all the difference. Sunak has not spoken out in public about his real reasoning, which confuses not only his own party rank and file but the electorate as well.
But how come that while continental Europe somewhat drifts to the far-right – 25% at the ballot box is indeed a significant shift – former EU member state Britain is expected to swing fully to the left and Labour? How come that while social democracy in many EU member states appears to be last season’s fashion, Labour in the U.K. is all but reborn?
More detailed pre-vote polls shed light on this miracle. Labour leads the surveys regarding education, health care, the national health system, in general, the cost of living, plus climate change. Interestingly, on immigration, both parties seem to score points on an equal footing, although Sunak accuses Starmer of allowing boats to continue once in office, which Starmer denies. But there is something else to note with all due diligence: Voters seem to argue that Starmer is more "likable" than Sunak, and even more relevantly, Sunak would no longer be in touch with ordinary people.
In a nutshell, Britain’s Labour Party scores points by defending the legitimate demands and interests of ordinary citizens who often wonder how to feed their families come the end of another expensive month. They want better education and better health care. They want issues "closer to home" and care less about international relations. The reform focuses on far-right ideology, and the Tories, in a last-minute attempt to stem the tide, announce ending illegal immigration once and for all and reintroducing national military or social service for young people for about up to one year after leaving school. Apparently, this has no real impact on current opinion polls.
What European mainstream left parties might want to copy from Labour is understanding ordinary voters' worries and concerns, as one's empty wallet is nearer to a voter’s heart and mind than lofty foreign policy-making statements. Germany’s AfD, Austria’s FPÖ, France’s RN did just that, cleverly tapping into working-class and middle-class voter basins. Much food for thought, so to speak, and a very interesting political summer lies ahead.
