The fight between the federal government of Ethiopia and the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) took on a new phase after Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed decided to lead the war from the front lines. Moments after Abiy's decision, the government media aired footage showing him wearing military dress while prompting the federal troops. Although it was unverifiable, Abiy appeared to be at the battleground. His decision brought a tangible military gain as the federal troops forced the TPLF to withdraw from the territories they had captured and retreat to their home region as their leadership announced. This swing of the pendulum occurred after months of federal troops being on the back foot and TPLF forces reaching up to a day's drive away from Addis Ababa.

Ethiopia's current conflict goes back to 2018 when Ethiopia's political turbulences saw Abiy ascend to the premiership. To implement his reform agenda, Abiy seems to have been convinced from the outset of the inevitable need to take power from TPLF affiliates and consign them to the margins. Hence, the government embarked on purging Tigrayans from critical positions, particularly military and intelligence posts. Also, the government dissolved the infamous Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) that, besides the TPLF, had three other satellite parties under its umbrella. In addition to that, Abiy made a historical rapprochement with the isolated state of Eritrea – the staunch enemy of Ethiopia for the last three decades. The opening to Eritrea brought international prestige to Abiy, culminating in his winning of the Nobel prize. On the other hand, it was part of a bigger move aimed at squeezing the TPLF.

The relatively settled down fight – as it seems now – broke out on November 2020 after the TPLF launched an attack on the Northern Command of Ethiopia's National Defense Force (ENDF). With the help of the Eritrean troops and paramilitary militias from the Amhara ethnicity, the ENDF captured the capital city of the Tigray region (Mekelle) within a few days. According to human rights organizations, the forces that entered Mekelle committed crimes against humanity such as extra-judicial killing, torture and mass rape against Tigray women. Also, the government imposed a total embargo on the region including the suspension of humanitarian aid entering the region. The collective punishment by the federal government sparked a huge international outcry, with some observers even warning of a potential genocide if the violence continued. Part of the fallout of the deadly conflict is the existence of more than 9 million people who are in a dire situation and need urgent humanitarian assistance according to the United Nations.

Back to 19th century

One thing for sure is that Ethiopia's dilemma isn't a novel one that started with the TPLF. It emerged long before, during the second half of the 19th century when the northern Abyssinians, backed by Europeans, subjugated the southern people for the purpose of exploiting their resources needed by the European entrepreneurs. At that time, European colonizers bolstered the Abyssinians at the expense of the colonized southern people by creating a unique system not implemented in other parts of Africa – an internal dependent superstructural colony that served the interest of the Europeans. In their seminal book "The Invention of Ethiopia," Bonnie K. Holcomb and Sisai Ibssa stated that in order for the Ethiopian regime to maintain existence it has had to successfully manage three basic requirements: