The Horn of Africa remains a region marked by ongoing conflicts and the constant risk of instability due to socioeconomic factors and historical ties.

In a period of escalating regional tensions, with the ongoing conflict in Gaza and Houthi attacks on commercial transportation in the Red Sea, the Addis Ababa administration has signed a development that could increase the risk of conflict in the Horn of Africa in line with the economic interests of its country.

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Somaliland leader Muse Bihi Abdi signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) in early 2024 that will provide Addis Ababa with access to the Red Sea.

The agreement stipulates that landlocked Ethiopia will recognize Somaliland as an independent state in exchange for Somaliland leasing 20 kilometers (12 miles) of its coastline for use as a military base and for commercial purposes. It is also envisaged that in exchange for the base, Somaliland will receive a stake in Ethiopian Airlines.

The MoU between the Federal Government of Ethiopia and Somalia's breakaway region of Somaliland combines domestic political dynamics, geopolitical interests and international legal repercussions rooted in the region's history.

Somaliland, 177,000 square kilometers of territory on the coast of the Gulf of Aden, declared its independence in 1991 but continues to be internationally recognized as a de facto state and part of Somalia. From this perspective, implementing the agreement will potentially open the door to international recognition for Somaliland, which has been seeking international recognition for the last three decades with its own government and democratic institutions. In addition to the gains it would bring to Somaliland, the agreement also carries the risk of intensifying conflicts, especially in regions such as Laascaanood and Sool, distancing the region from being an island of stability.

On the Ethiopian side, the MoU, which is a projection of Africa's growing geopolitical importance, stands out as an economic lifeline. Ethiopia, the world's most populous landlocked country, had secured its coastline after Eritrea joined its territory. However, after Eritrea gained independence in 1993, Addis Ababa's administration conducted more than 95% of its import and export trade volume through the Djibouti corridor. Access to the Red Sea ports has become a strategic imperative for Ethiopian political decision-makers, who have often expressed the importance of access to the seas for their country's existence. From this perspective, if the agreement enters into force, Ethiopia, which shares an important border with Somaliland, will gain access to global markets, reducing dependence on the Djibouti corridor as well as accelerating its economic development.

Agreement to weaken counterterrorism cooperation

The implementation of the MoU, which is likely to jeopardize the peace and stability of the Horn of Africa region, violates the unity and territorial integrity of Somalia, a geostrategic country in the region.

Somalia and Ethiopia, two important balance countries on the political and geopolitical stage of East Africa, have a history of stormy relations and territorial disputes, having fought two wars in the late 20th century. The recent history of the Ogaden War between Somalia and Ethiopia in 1977-78 provides striking lessons on how violations of sovereignty can have devastating effects. Therefore, the violation of Somalia's territorial integrity is a turning point in the region's domestic, geopolitical and diplomatic scene.

Stating that it rejected the agreement as null and void because it had no legal basis and violated international law, the Federal Government of Somalia recalled the Ethiopian ambassador.

In current regional and international dynamics, the agreement poses potential risks and threats rather than gains for Somaliland and Ethiopia.

Since 1991, Somaliland has been seeking international recognition. Its recognition as an independent state could set an example for other countries in the African continent where many separatist movements are observed. The independence demands of countries encouraged by Somaliland's gains from international recognition will bring about changes in the region's geopolitical dynamics.

Looking at the internal security dynamics of Somalia and Ethiopia, it is seen that both countries are struggling with instability. For both Mogadishu, which has been struggling with al-Shabab terrorism for many years, and Ethiopia, which is facing conflicts in the Amhara region following the Tigray War, the current agreement has the potential to deepen regional security problems.

While the internal and external dynamics that led to the emergence of the al-Shabab terrorist organization are diverse, the group has been able to galvanize nationalist sentiments and expand its sphere of support and control by defining foreign interventions to build peace in Somalia as an occupation of Somali territory.

The United Nations' decision to lift its longstanding arms embargo on Somalia in the last months of 2023 was expected to boost Mogadishu's counterterrorism capacity. The signing of the MoU at a turning point where the fight against terrorism would gain momentum has led to a shift of attention to Ethiopia. The current agreement was also met with a reaction by the radical al-Shabab, which has made a name for itself with its attacks in Somalia, where anti-Ethiopian nationalist sentiments are on the rise. The organization's spokesperson, Sheikh Ali Dhere, described the agreement as illegal and invalid in an audio recording.

Al-Shabab claims that Ethiopia, which it defines as a historical enemy, is a Christian occupying state with a motive to occupy Somali territory. In a statement dated Jan. 2, the organization likened Ethiopia to Israel and called for a fight against Ethiopia, saying that Ethiopia's de facto occupation of Somali territory will begin if the agreement comes into force, just as Israel occupies Palestinian territory.

Somalia and Ethiopia have been fighting against al-Shabab, which they define as a common enemy, for many years. Ethiopian troops are deployed on Somali soil as part of the African Union (AU) mission in the context of Somalia's fight against terrorism. With the increase in anti-Ethiopian sentiment, Ethiopian forces will likely withdraw from Somalia if the organization's attacks escalate, especially in the Somaliland region, where an Ethiopian naval base will be established.

As a result, given the fragile balance of power in the region, the agreement, which has strained relations between Somalia and Ethiopia, which have a long history of military conflict and hostility, will weaken the two countries' counterterrorism cooperation. On the other hand, the agreement, which escalates anti-Ethiopian nationalist sentiments among Somalis, will increase the risk of regional conflict by reviving the tensions that emerged after Ethiopia's foreign intervention in Somalia in 2006.

Türkiye as guarantor of peace in Somalia

The AU, the Arab League, the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), the African Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD), and many regional and international organizations share the concern that the violation of Somalia's territorial integrity will change regional dynamics and that the conflicts may spread throughout the region, have called for calm.

Türkiye, consistently supporting the Somali people across development, security, education and health to foster peace and stability in Somalia – a central focus of its African opening policy – has declared its commitment to offering comprehensive assistance in resolving the ongoing conflict.

In addition to maintaining robust economic, diplomatic and military connections with both Somalia and Ethiopia, Türkiye has actively endorsed itself as a guardian of Somalia's territorial integrity on regional and international platforms, particularly in the fight against terrorism.

With established military cooperation agreements to foster peace and security in Somalia, Türkiye, drawing on its experience in comprehensively addressing regional crises, sees the current dispute as an opportunity to reinvigorate its longstanding mediation role between Somalia and Somaliland.

Suppose the tense relations between Somalia and Ethiopia spread over the long term. In that case, the current dynamics in the Horn of Africa region will change, ultimately determining Türkiye's political and economic influence. Therefore, Türkiye's diplomatic experience gained from its presence in the field and the development of a common discourse and vision in the face of the current conflict will reinforce its identity as a peace-building actor and mediator and will provide new gains for the deepening of Türkiye-Africa relations.