In February 2022, Russia declared a "Special Military Operation," which was an overt demonstration of a process whose conceptual and historical background started taking shape in 2022 Summer. However, Russian President Vladimir Putin's article, "On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians" truly marked a significant milestone in this development. Russia’s first man’s article provides a profound insight into the historical ties between Russians and Ukrainians, dispelling the notion of two distinct peoples and emphasizing their unity as one nation.
Moreover, the political and geographical context, including Soviet and imperial ties, adds layers of complexity to the situation. The intricate web of NATO's expansion and the mutual creation of the "other" in relations between the West and Russia further complicates matters. Therefore, the process leading to the military operation is not just a straightforward declaration; reports in Interfax also included references to NATO, underscoring the multifaceted nature of the conflict. In the current conflict in the region, Russia has shifted its focus toward a more aggressive approach rather than relying on historical connections. As a result, the specific tools and strategies employed in the war have taken on heightened significance.
In his speech, Putin underscored Russia's efforts to negotiate with NATO countries on equal and indivisible security principles in Europe. The significance of this speech lies in the fact that the desired outcome, the establishment of these security principles, was not achieved. This speech is crucial in understanding Russia's perspective and its diplomatic efforts.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has escalated into a full-scale war with a hybrid nature in both countries as of Aug. 6, 2024, which has had disproportionate casualties. Nowadays, the potential use of nuclear weapons and their realpolitik implications in the current state of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict is on the table.
The most concrete example of nuclear energy becoming a threat to humanity and, at the same time, a power in terms of defense was undoubtedly during World War II. The Manhattan Project, led by the influential nuclear physicist Robert Oppenheimer, revealed for the first time what nuclear weapons were and what they could do. The Los Alamos Laboratory, a crucial research area in this project, played a significant role in reshaping the global system and history through its pioneering nuclear studies.
With the bomb called Little Boy hitting Hiroshima, Japan, on Aug. 6, 1945, the concept of war and mutual deterrence changed in world history. Deterrence became a tool used for wars that should not have happened between powers that held nuclear weapons. In short, nuclear deterrence revealed the fact that the cost of possible aggression by one actor against another would be high. The mass destruction of Hiroshima was not just a city or region but the emergence of irreversible damage to the global system, a stark reminder of the power and devastation of nuclear weapons.
However, the use of nuclear weapons is currently interpreted within the framework of specific agreements in the context of international law. Nuclear arms control has been crucial in curbing arms competition and regulating the arsenals of Russia and the U.S. It has significantly reduced both countries' nuclear arsenals, especially after the Cold War. The U.S.-Russia Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) holds a key position in the realm of international restrictions. However, a crucial development occurred in February 2023 when this treaty, which played a significant role in maintaining the nuclear balance within the global system, was paused by Russia's initiative.
In 2020, Russia revised its policy on nuclear and non-nuclear weapons, specifically in the context of a perceived threat to the state's survival. The updated policy stipulates that the entire military might of the Russian Federation, including nuclear weapons, will be utilized to counteract any potential attack. However, after February 2022, changes in Russia's nuclear doctrine have increasingly begun to draw attention. Of course, the pressure created by the existing process and the unpredictable steps are essential because there is a war process in which the actors do not take rational steps, which is not exclusive to the context of Ukraine and Russia. This situation is creating a rapid escalation, especially with the West's support for Ukraine and Russia's constant expression of its red lines. These lines reach existential dimensions, especially for Russia in the axis of the changing nuclear doctrine in 2020, which saw a shift towards a more aggressive and assertive atomic posture, including the development of new nuclear weapons and the expansion of their use in military strategy. In short, just like in the Cold War, Russia reveals the perception that it is facing the West's containment policy.
The latest point underscores the need for a comprehensive review of Russia's nuclear doctrine as amended in September 2024. It indicates that Russia will consider unconventional attacks within the scope of nuclear attacks. Putin has outlined planned changes in the Basic Principles of State Policy on Nuclear Deterrence. This review is necessitated by recent geopolitical developments and emerging military threats, highlighting the urgency of the situation. The evolving nuclear doctrine is adapted to the realities of the ongoing conflict in the region. It is essential to highlight a few key points: Any aggression against Russia by a non-nuclear state, with the involvement or backing of a nuclear state, would be considered a joint attack on Russia. Accurate intelligence indicating a significant deployment of strategic or tactical aircraft toward Russia or the launch of cruise missiles, drones or hypersonic weapons into its territory could be seen as justification for a nuclear response from Moscow. Finally, Russia maintains the right to use nuclear weapons in the event of aggression against itself and its ally, Belarus. Indeed, as mentioned, this change was related to the evolving state of the war. However, its timing coincided with Ukraine's request for approval to use long-range missiles purchased from the West to target sites on Russian territory.
Upon reviewing the present circumstances, it is apparent that both parties have arrived at an impasse. For this reason, although Russia and Ukraine seem to be far from reaching an agreement on an area where they will create a ground for negotiations, the conditions actually point to agreement. The reason for this is that, for Russia, the war has been brought to Russian territory, creating a new front and potentially forcing a shift in their negotiation strategy. On the other hand, for Ukraine and, of course, for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, it is the situation of not reaching an agreement with the West on the new aid package and the use of long-range missiles that they have been waiting for a long time.
