Today, space technology plays a pivotal role in our daily lives, offering an array of benefits that underpin key services like communication, the internet, banking and navigation. These advancements have significantly influenced our world, particularly over the last three decades. The global economy, national security and the daily operations of both states and companies are deeply dependent on the continuous use of satellites. Space-based early missile warning systems are essential for national defense for superpowers like the United States, China and Russia. Similarly, many countries rely on weather satellites to forecast natural disasters and extreme weather conditions, safeguarding the safety of their populations.
However, such advancements face numerous challenges, notably from space debris, jeopardizing these benefits. Moreover, the burgeoning satellite population, propelled by emerging spacefaring entities and private ventures like SpaceX, is leading to an increasingly congested orbit. As a result, the debris can cause massive satellite destruction and new fragmentation of more debris pieces, posing a significant threat to our daily lives. Due to the unique characteristics of space, such as physics and an area without borders or the fact that space is accepted as a global commons, it isn't easy to regulate the domain with laws. This, in turn, symbolizes a challenge for diplomatic efforts by regulating space debris and complicates the issue more.
The so-called Kessler Syndrome is the main factor that makes the threat of space debris severe. This phenomenon occurs when the creation of space debris is increased to such an extent that the natural deorbiting of that debris cannot prevent the new creation of space debris and leads to clouds of debris in space. Consequently, this phenomenon would cause a vast disaster and the inaccessibility of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) due to the massive amount of space debris threatening to destroy spacecraft. It is estimated that as of 2023, over 36,500 pieces of debris bigger than 10 centimeters (3.94 inches) are in orbit, which poses a significant threat to active spacecraft.
Moreover, the increasing number of functioning or defunct satellites is a further factor leading to space overcrowding. Alone in LEO, the number of operating satellites reached around 6,700 in 2023. In addition, The European Space Agency asserts that around 11,500 satellites are currently in orbit and that 2,500 of them remain defunct satellites that remain in orbit as large pieces of debris risking other space objects. The reason for the overcrowding of space is also leading to the increased amount of debris, which is directly related to the activities of numerous new space actors.
Furthermore, the commercial space sector also forms a significant portion of space actors. Since the end of the Cold War competition in space in the 1990s between the U.S. and the Soviet Union, additional actors have joined the space club. Countries such as China, India and Japan have become space powers. Alone from 2015 to 2020, emerging space actors such as Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, Zimbabwe and Greece formed their own space agencies. This extended the number of spacefaring actors in space and has led directly to more activity in space. The number of launched objects sent to space grew exponentially from 586 in 2019 to 2474 in 2022. The primary reason for the high number of launches is that the launch costs have been reduced tremendously over the past 20 years and become 20 times cheaper than they were before 20 years. As a result of the high number of objects in space, the predicted conjunctions between space objects increased by 134% in 2022 compared to 2020. According to Pultarova, 4 million conjunctions are possibly predicted to occur in space. The high rate of possible conjunctions is increasing the risk of debris-creating casualties.
Arriving in 2023, it was noticed that over the past five years, an increase of 41% in the global space economy has occurred and that, in total, 91 nations are running activities in space. The global space economy is estimated to grow from $546 billion to $772 billion by 2027. It is predicted that the value of the commercial space sector will reach $1.1 trillion by 2030. This means that the activities of actors in space will continue to intensify, leading to more overcrowded spaces. For instance, SpaceX, one of the most outstanding private space companies, has announced plans to activate a colossal mega-constellation of 42,000 satellites by 2027. In response to this, China announced plans to build a mega-constellation with 13,000 satellites. The high number of satellites is increasing the risk of possible debris-creating casualties, for which a Space Traffic Management (STM) system is essential, but this is another issue that needs to be investigated, as detailed in another article.
The increased activities of either spacefaring nations or private space companies and the building of mega-constellations of satellites are the reasons for space overcrowding and the growing risk of potential collisions. These developments are increasing the risk of possible debris creation in space and threatening the peace in space.
The space debris problem lacks binding diplomatic agreements to prevent debris creation. The masterpiece of space agreements, the Outer Space Treaty, is ineffective in mitigating space debris or avoiding space overcrowding. The main reason for this is that the Outer Space Treaty (OST) was signed in 1967 when technological enhancements and the expansion of space actors were unforeseen and unpredictable. For example, the OST does not include regulations regarding commercial actors in space and hands this issue over to the responsibility of national governments.
In such a situation, space remains unregulated and ready for overcrowding. Some considerable attempts from the (IADC) Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee and the United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (UNCOPUOS) to regulate space were unsuccessful in effectively minimizing the debris problem. This is because they had a soft law character, which means that the rules were only non-binding and voluntary guidelines. To secure the space assets and guarantee the accessibility of space, the space debris issue needs to be addressed with binding rules, especially for anti-satellite tests (ASAT), which lead to the creation of a vast number of debris.
After excess numbers of satellites, conducting ASAT tests in the space domain is one of the main reasons for potential collisions. In 2007, China tested an ASAT test and targeted its own defunct satellite Fengyun-1C at 850-kilometer (528.17-mile) altitude and created over 2,000 large pieces of space debris and 35,000 pieces smaller than 1 centimeter. It has been estimated that 79 % of the debris created in this explosion will probably remain in orbit for around 100 years. The explosions, especially in high altitudes, form a risk for active spacecraft because the de-orbiting time of debris is taking longer than in lower altitudes.
The OST fails to regulate the weaponization of space as well. To fill this gap, China and Russia submitted in 2008 the so-called Treaty on Prevention of the Placement of Weapons in Outer Space and of the Threat or Use of Force Against Outer Space Objects (PPWT). However, this attempt was unsuccessful and received criticism, especially from the U.S. side, due to the vagueness of its wording and omission of direct-ascent kinetic ASAT weapons, which are debris-creating weapons. It is clearly plausible that China does not want to ban DA-ASAT weapons, which form an indispensable part of their asymmetric strategy against the U.S. dominance in space.
Nonetheless, the U.S. knows that the PPWT will not effectively reduce the threat to space security and will still provide China the opportunity to develop DA-ASAT weapons, aiming to attack U.S. satellites in a possible conflict.
Undoubtedly, the debris problem is becoming the most pressing threat against space security and humanity. It is obvious that the current space governance was not extensively prepared for the steady increase of space actors and satellites. However, due to the surge of space debris and the potential of Kessler syndrome, the debris issue protects its earnestness and urges for a commonly agreed overall solution for protecting the global commons.
A noteworthy solution could be to agree commonly on forbidding every type of weaponization of space. Space activities must be adapted to clear laws with serious penalties for non-compliance. Furthermore, launching objects into space must be ruled out to control the overcrowding of space in a dangerous manner. For the recent situation and high numbers positioned in space, an STM could be established to have all objects under control to avoid collisions. Hence, for all these steps, an international organization must be contracted to engage with them. This global organization should include all spacefaring nations and private companies to create laws and regulations that are commonly accepted and adapted to today's problems and circumstances. Thus, this would also consider new technologies and close a significant gap in the OST.
