German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier paid an official visit to Türkiye recently, commemorating the 100th anniversary of the Türkiye-Germany Friendship Treaty signed on March 3, 1924. His contacts were quite intense as it was the highest-level visit from Germany to Türkiye after Prime Minister Olaf Scholz’s visit to Ankara in March 2022. Moreover, since Steinmeier, who has been serving as president for seven years, came to Türkiye for the first time in this capacity, his three-day program attracted the close attention of the public opinion of both countries.

Looking back, we see that leader diplomacy played an influential role in resolving the problems between the two countries and advancing bilateral relations. As direct and face-to-face contacts are established between the heads of state and government of the two countries within the framework of leader diplomacy, decisions are taken during the summit meetings to resolve the problems in the relations and cooperate to improve the relations. Since there is no acute crisis currently occupying the political agenda of Turkish-German relations, President Steinmeier mainly made contacts regarding the political and economic strengthening of Turkish-German relations during his visit last week.

'Döner diplomacy'

Before assessing Steinmeier’s visit and the course of Turkish-German relations, it is necessary to touch upon the most interesting event of this visit, namely the "döner issue."

President Steinmeier’s unconventional route to Türkiye, bringing a Turkish döner chef and 60 kilograms (132.28 pounds) of meat döner with him, was found funny by some and meaningless by others. However, the fact that Steinmeier brought the so-called "German döneri," which is the most consumed fast food product in Germany and is identified with the Turks, should be seen as a declaration of goodwill toward Türkiye and the Turkish diaspora in Germany.

Previously, Chancellor Angela Merkel had tried to establish a bond with the Turkish diaspora by frequently visiting Turkish döner shops and cutting döner. Like Merkel, Steinmeier resorted to "döner diplomacy" with a creative idea when he came to Türkiye, trying to show that Germany not only adopted the döner originating from Türkiye but also took for granted the Turkish society, which has made this döner an indispensable element of German cuisine. As a matter of fact, it can be said that döner diplomacy has had an impact beyond expectations in Türkiye and Germany, considering the close attention shown by the public and the news made. In addition, Steinmeier’s döner diplomacy is an excellent example of the constructive role that gastro diplomacy, a sub-branch of public diplomacy, can play in relations between states.

100 years of friendship

Turkish-German relations undoubtedly have a deep-rooted history. The strong ties established between the Ottoman and German empires in the lead-up to World War I, which became known as the "brotherhood of arms" (Waffenbrüderschaft) over time, continued after the war. Since the Treaty of Friendship was signed in 1924, which coincided with the early period of the Republic of Türkiye, political tensions have arisen from time to time between the two countries due to the nature of interstate relations. However, each of these could either be overcome thanks to the constructive attitude of at least one of the parties, or they lost their place on the agenda in the ordinary course of time. During his visit last week, Steinmeier expressed what the Turkish-German friendship means to Germany, saying, "Germany does not have friendly relations with any country as it does with Türkiye."

The real turning point that shaped the relations between the two countries began in the 1960s. A historical Labor Recruitment Agreement was signed between Türkiye and Germany on Oct. 30, 1961, to meet the increasing labor demand of the developing German economy from abroad. Turks, who were viewed with the eye of "they will return one day anyway" in the first years, contrary to expectations, remained in Germany permanently and, far from returning, they became an important part of Germany in every aspect. Turks of different statuses, whose number exceeds 3.5 million today, have become such an important part of Germany, where they went as guest workers (Gastarbeiter) but where they stayed permanently, that even the döner they took with them has become Germany’s national dish. To give a symbolic message with reference to these, Steinmeier started his visit last week by going to Sirkeci Train Station, the symbol of labor migration, and then offered his guests the döner he brought from Germany.

By the way, I would like to point out that we discussed the relations between the two countries and the 60-year adventure of the Turks in Germany from different dimensions in our compilation book titled "Türkiye-Germany Relations After 60 Years and Turks in Germany" ("60 Yılın Ardından Türkiye-Almanya Ilişkileri ve Almanya’daki Türkler"), which we published last year, concerning the Labor Recruitment Agreement signed in 1961. In our book, which we prepared with the contribution of 16 researchers, we evaluated bilateral relations in detail regarding their historical, political, economic and social aspects. Our 13-chapter book, which is the first in its field in terms of its scope, is a reference work for researchers interested in the subject.

Problematic areas

When we look at the political aspect of Turkish-German relations, we see that terrorism and security problems are still structural issues in bilateral relations. Germany’s provision of a wide area of operation within its borders to PKK and FETÖ, which pose a threat to Türkiye’s national security and integrity, is in no way compatible with the law of alliance that has been around for 100 years. Although Germany claims to support Türkiye’s fight against terrorism in terms of rhetoric, when we look at the actions, we see that both organizations still use Germany as their base in Europe in terms of recruiting personnel and generating income. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan touched upon this issue at the press conference with Steinmeier, saying, "We expect more support and solidarity from Germany in the fight against terrorism."

The endless racist attacks against Turks in Germany are also among the current problems in bilateral relations. While everyone remembers the bloody attacks against Turks in the past, four Turks lost their lives, and nine people were injured last March as a result of the arson of a building where Turks lived in Solingen by unidentified racists. This situation shows that the security of life and property of Turks cannot be ensured in an environment where racism has become institutional in Germany and the organic ties between the state and racist terrorist organizations have become evident. For this reason, Germany now needs to take concrete steps to end the ongoing racist terrorism against Turks.

Germany’s negative role in Türkiye’s European Union membership process remains another problematic area in bilateral relations. In fact, Germany had an extremely positive attitude toward Türkiye’s EU membership during the term of SPD member Gerhard Schröder, who served between 1998 and 2005. In this way, Türkiye was first accepted as a candidate country for the EU at the Helsinki Summit in 1999 and then was able to start EU membership negotiations in 2005. The social democratic Schröder administration, which served in this process, adopted a very constructive attitude and was at the center of intense diplomacy traffic to advance Türkiye’s EU membership process.

Schröder’s successor, conservative democrat Merkel, took the opposite stance during her term and became one of the leading figures blocking Türkiye’s EU membership. Since the current German government, led by SPD’s Scholz, continues Merkel’s policy, Türkiye’s EU membership process has been stalled for a long time. Since Steinmeier did not give positive messages on the issue during his visit last week, the issue of EU membership will continue to be among the problematic areas in Turkish-German relations in the coming period.

Trade, investments

Steinmeier’s meeting with Turkish and German investors during his contacts in Istanbul can be seen as a manifestation of Germany’s will to increase the trade volume between the two countries and investments in both countries. It should be emphasized immediately that according to 2023 data, the total trade volume between the two countries has reached $50 billion. According to the data of the same year, Germany ranks first among the countries to which Türkiye exports the most, with $21 billion, and ranks third among the countries to which it imports the most, with $28.6 billion. Moreover, more than 8,000 German capital companies are currently operating in Türkiye.

When we look at the issue from Germany’s perspective, again according to last year’s data, Türkiye ranks 14th among the countries to which Germany exports the most and 17th among the countries to which it imports the most. What is more striking than this data is that Turkish enterprises in Germany, whose number exceeds 80,000 today, employ more than half a million people in Germany, where they came as guests yesterday. Therefore, as much as Germany is important for the Turkish economy, the Türkiye and Turks in Germany are at least as important as the German economy. In this respect, we can discuss a situation of mutual dependence between the Turkish and German economies. As a matter of fact, while meeting with President Erdoğan in Ankara, Steinmeier made the following determination with an accurate approach: "Türkiye and Germany are indispensable for each other in every field."

Bilateral trade volume has been in Germany’s favor for many years. However, this gap has closed in recent years due to the increase in Türkiye’s exports of high-value-added products to Germany. As a matter of fact, Türkiye exported the most textile products to Germany until the 2010s, but today, it exports the most engines and car parts. Germany, on the other hand, exports the most cars to Türkiye, in line with the trend that has been going on for many years. This situation can be seen as a concrete reflection of the Turkish economy’s strategy to move away from its identity as a purely textile and agricultural country during the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) period and toward exporting technological products with high added value.

Although trade between the two countries has been in Germany’s favor for many years, we cannot discuss a unilateral dependence on Germany for Türkiye. Although Türkiye’s exports to Germany cannot fully meet its imports from Germany, it is not at a negligible level in terms of quantity. Additionally, the difference in the trade balance fell to $7.6 billion as of last year. Therefore, Germany’s overwhelming superiority in the trade balance is absolutely out of the question. Suppose we remember that Germany is among the rare countries with a foreign trade surplus every year and is one of the five largest economies in the world according to gross domestic product values. In that case, the imbalance in trade should not be considered abnormal.

Finally, in the Erdoğan-Steinmeier meeting, both leaders declared their joint will to increase the total trade volume. However, to make serious progress in trade between the two countries, the EU-Türkiye Customs Union, which has been in effect since 1996, needs to be updated. Updating the customs union, which cannot meet current commercial expectations and becomes more disadvantageous for the Turkish economy with each passing year, in line with Ankara’s demands, will benefit Türkiye and EU member countries, including Germany.

As a matter of fact, in the report prepared by the World Bank in 2014, attention was drawn to the need to update the customs union and it was stated that a possible update would benefit both parties. However, a group of EU members, led by Germany, have been preventing the updating of the customs union in order not to lose their advantageous position in trade with Türkiye and to continue using this issue as a political "stick" against Türkiye. For this reason, it is not possible to make serious progress in trade between Ankara and Berlin until the customs union is updated.