Do populist right-wing rhetoric in Europe turn into hate actions in the U.S.?
Republican nominees Donald Trump and J.D. Vance interact on Day 1 of the RNC at the Fiserv Forum in Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, U.S., July 15, 2024. (Reuters Photo)

Could the rise of far-right populism in recent European elections heighten U.S. pre-election tensions?



The June 6-9 European Parliament elections had a significant impact globally, revealing a growing far-right trend in Europe. France conducted early elections, where Marine Le Pen's party saw initial success, drawing attention to the rise of right-wing extremism. Despite populist support, the French left emerged victorious in the second round, with Macron and his supporters sending a strong message to the world.

Following the French elections, the 75th NATO Summit of Heads of State and Government took place from July 9-11, 2024, with 32 member countries in attendance. The Summit led to crucial decisions, as reflected in a communique issued thereafter. The communique affirmed continued support for Ukraine in the Russia-Ukraine War, emphasizing the commitment to full Euro-Atlantic integration, including NATO membership. Additionally, it was announced that the 76th NATO Summit in 2026 would be hosted in Türkiye. These unanimous decisions underscore NATO's ongoing positive trajectory.

The significance of the European Parliament election results and national election outcomes in realizing this positive united vision is evident. It is a notable fact that country leaders, elected through popular vote, shape decision-making within NATO with 32 like-minded individuals collaborating. Hence, the importance of having non-populist, peace-promoting politicians in ensuring a balanced decision-making process is once again underscored. Nevertheless, issues such as migration, Islamophobia, and terrorism continue to sway public opinion with national policies of the 32 member nations reflecting chauvinistic attitudes and rhetoric. These perspectives, influenced by public sentiment and the impact of media and press utilization, often escalate into violent actions.

The most recent of these acts is the attempted armed attack on former U.S. President Donald Trump yesterday. The attack took place during a speech in Pennsylvania, two days before Trump’s candidacy and he was wounded in his right ear by a bullet. During the same attack, great panic occurred among the civilian population and it was announced that there were casualties and injuries. The major incident, occurring during the closely watched U.S. election process by the entire world, has led to speculation about the likely winner of the election.

Acts of violence in the U.S.

The 45th President of the United States, Donald Trump, was shot by an armed assailant during a campaign speech in Butler, Pennsylvania, for the Nov. 5, 2024, election. The assassination attempt took place one day before the Republican Party's convention to formalize Trump’s presidential candidacy, scheduled for July 15-18, 2024. It was reported that two civilians died and many others were injured in the attack. Trump’s condition is not critical, and he has declared that he will not abandon his campaign but will continue with the process. The attacker, Thomas Matthew Crooks, allegedly associated with the PKK, is said to be a donor to the Democratic Party despite being registered with the Republican Party. According to the American press, Crooks has a history of involvement in various violent acts, protests, fights, and mass consultation activities. Despite claiming to oppose racism and anti-immigration, reports indicate that he has resorted to violence in his conflicts with far-right individuals. Additionally, it is mentioned that he has been arrested multiple times for these violent acts and is facing ongoing assault charges.

The impact of the assassination attempt on Trump

How will the assassination attempt on Trump three months before the planned Nov. 5, 2024, U.S. election affect the course of the process? In the current neck-and-neck election campaign, could the voting behavior shift in Trump’s favor? The fatal assassination attempt on the candidate and the voter base, occurring two days before the official candidacy application, could sway Trump opponents or undecided voters in favor of Trump. This possibility has become a significant topic of discussion nowadays, not only in the U.S. but also worldwide. Various platforms, including digital media, social media platforms, press and broadcasting organizations, diplomatic representations, and other civil society areas, are seeking an answer to this question. According to the U.S. press organization Telegraph, this attack is Trump’s ticket back to the White House, and he is already rising with an eight-point increase.

In addition, the Washington Post suggests that Trump’s fist gesture after the attack will become a "new symbol" icon. Other major media outlets express differing views, with some stating that this attack resulted from "Trump’s hate-inciting policy." Essentially, there are many opinions regarding the assassination attempt and its possible impact on Trump’s election success. It will also be very important for the motivation of the attack to be explained by official sources and in understanding the impact of hate speech on the transformation of right and left dynamics into actions.