Developing nations can learn valuable lessons from the recent Turkish elections, as exemplified by Somalia, where the use of an indirect approach allowed a small minority to elect members of parliament and leaders
The recent Turkish presidential election captured global attention, drawing parallels to the Donald Trump v Joe Biden contest in the 2020 U.S. elections, as the build-up to the election was also exciting with main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP) Chair Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu building a diverse but loosely connected coalition to challenge the long-serving President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. The indecisive first round of voting heightened excitement and tensions in Türkiye and beyond.
Across international media outlets, the focal point was President Erdoğan's lead against his opponent, Kılıçdaroğlu, in the first round and the anticipation of whether he would make it to the second round, but the result confirmed President Erdoğan's historic victory, eliciting a mix of delight and anger among Turkish people and worldwide. Of course, this is to be expected because of the inherent messiness and pain of democracy in a majoritarian system, where the winner takes all. However, as President Erdoğan emphasized in his speech that the true victor was Türkiye, its people, and their robust and resilient democracy.
It is important to recognize the great effort of the opposition and to, ultimately, congratulate President Erdoğan and his team on their persuasive and well-executed campaign which, once again, convinced most of the Turkish citizens that voted that his vision is the one that will best serve their needs and progress their ambitious national aspirations.
The role of 4.5 in democratization
Developing nations aspiring to enhance their democratic processes and election operations can draw valuable lessons from the recent Turkish elections. For instance, in Somalia, one of Africa's early democratic nations after independence and a strong ally of Türkiye, the most recent elections followed an indirect approach where a small minority elected lawmakers and leaders. This was a result of the legacy of conflict and mistrust spanning nearly three decades, leading to a system of clan representation known as the "4.5 system." While this system aims to achieve balance and fair representation, the ultimate objective for Somali leaders has been the transition to full universal suffrage, a goal they have pursued for over a decade.
Newly elected Somalia President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, who has made history by winning his second indirect elections, has made clear his intentions of moving away from the primitive and temporary 4.5 system to introducing a more robust and inclusive universal suffrage based on political parties. This will be more in line with global democratic standards and practices and, arguably, allow for Somalia's politics to be better organized, be more representative, and provide opportunities for the best candidates to be selected within their parties. This is clearly a big ambition and a huge shift from the past. However, making this transition will take time, and the recent successful Turkish elections can act as a realistic practical guide.
The crucial lesson from the Turkish presidential elections for Somalia is that efficient and effective planning and management are crucial. In addition, a quick, orderly political transition is a must to maintain policy momentum as well as provide confidence to citizens and international partners. There must also be a national consensus to limit foreign interference as much as possible to ensure that the election outcome is truly nationally owned. This may not always be easy in a fragile country like Somalia which is slowly reorganizing itself and recovering from the past political and socio-economic collapse with the support of various international partners.
However, a strong sense of national unity and political maturity, just like in Türkiye, over political rigidity and clan dogma is needed for Somali democracy to take a better shape and thrive.
Türkiye's presidential election in May, as divisive as it appears, was a masterclass in the efficiency and effectiveness of election administration. It was also transparent and hard-fought by all sides. Accordingly, it is an election many developing nations with real inclusive democratic aspirations like Somalia can learn from.