I frequently address population policies in my articles at Daily Sabah and aim to scrutinize the changes in Türkiye’s population. This is because understanding the effects of the critical transformation in Türkiye’s population is of great importance for the future of the country. The critical transformation in Türkiye’s population structure is not only a demographic change but also an existential threat to the country’s future. Several indicators, such as the rapid decline in the proportion of the youth population, the increase in the elderly ratio, the decrease in those who prefer not to get married and have children and the fertility rate falling to the figure of 1.51 show a critical change in Türkiye’s economic and social structure.

The latest 2050-2100 Population Projections published by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat) further clarify the dimensions of this danger and paint a pessimistic overview of the future. According to the lately published data, TurkStat has created three scenarios for the years 2050 and 2100, namely optimistic, base and pessimistic, to analyze the transformations in Türkiye’s population and predict the future. Unfortunately, all three projections indicate a narrowing window of opportunity.

Decline of the young population

According to TurkStat’s projections for 2050 and 2100, Türkiye’s youth population ratio could drop significantly in the forthcoming years. As of 2023, the youth population ratio, 15.1% below the world average, is expected to fall further to 9.66% in 2050 and 9.55% in 2100. Moreover, these are optimistic estimates. In the pessimistic scenario, these ratios are seen to worsen: The young population ratio will drop to 9.29% in 2050 and, tragically, to 7.2% in 2100.

This data shows that the population of young Turks could drop to less than four million before the end of the century. Even in the base scenario showing medium expectations, the young population is projected to fall to 7.3 million by 2100. The fact that even optimistic scenarios cannot maintain the current rate of the youth population further increases the seriousness of this problem. In all scenarios, Türkiye loses its place in the world rankings in terms of active population rankings. As of the end of 2023, 15.5% of the world population, which is 8.45 billion, or approximately 1.25 billion, consists of the youth population aged 15-25.

As of last year, 12,872.039 of the Turkish population, which was 85, 372.377, are included in the youth population. Türkiye is currently below the world average of 15.5%, with a youth population rate of 15.1%. According to United Nations data, the country with the highest youth population is Syria, with 24.1%, while the country with the lowest rate is Ukraine, with 6.8%. The projections show a rapid decline in Türkiye’s ranking position.

2023 vs 2018

To compare, it should be noted that TurkStat made population projections in 2018. According to the 2018 projections, it was predicted that Türkiye’s youth population would be 13.8 million in 2050, and its rate would remain around 14.1%. However, the current projections reveal that these figures have changed significantly due to a critical decline in the fertility rate. By 2050, the young population is expected to decline to approximately 9.1 million, and its rate will drop to 9.66%. This change indicates a tragic transformation in Türkiye’s demographic structure and raises serious concerns about long-term economic and social sustainability.

According to the 2018 projections, it was predicted that the youth population would be 10.9 million in 2100, and its rate would remain around 11.5%. However, current data shows that these projections will not come true and that the youth population will further decline to 7.3 million by 2100, and its rate will decrease to 9.55%. This situation shows that the decline in the youth population is happening faster than expected and that the demographic structure is rapidly aging. The data exposes that soon, Türkiye will be considered among the most elderly in terms of population within a decade, and the window of opportunity will be closed significantly.

More critically, while the 2018 projections show that Türkiye’s population will peak at 107.7 million by 2070, the latest projections show that the population will reach 101.8 million at best in 2085. In other words, Türkiye will have already lost 6 million in population by the end of the century. The differences between these projections show that Türkiye needs more urgent and comprehensive reforms in its policies to support its youth population. While the 2018 projections painted a more optimistic picture with the postponement of the aging crisis, the current data has replaced this optimism with a pessimistic picture. This situation emphasizes the need to rapidly update strategic policies to prevent the decline of the youth population and ensure economic and social sustainability.

Economic and political impacts

The decline in the youth population could potentially devastate Türkiye’s economic growth. The decline in the working-age population could lead to decreased production capacity and diminishing development potential. The aging population crisis in Europe has shown how deep the economic consequences of this situation can be. For example, Germany has experienced a serious contraction in its workforce due to the increase in its elderly population, which has slowed its economic growth and created a chronic workforce shortage that is filled with migrants. Similarly, in Japan, the increase in the elderly population has caused problems such as a decrease in innovative ideas and the jeopardy of the sustainability of social services.

In essence, Türkiye’s aging population poses an existential threat to its economic and social model. While the country’s youth population is rapidly decreasing, the increase in the elderly population is causing problems such as a shrinking workforce and increasing pressure on social security systems. This situation threatens Türkiye’s economic growth while making it challenging to sustain its generous welfare state and social services.

From a political perspective, the decline in the youth population emerges as a factor that could weaken Türkiye’s potential for future regional leadership. The decreasing number of young people may make it harder for a dynamic economy and innovative ideas to emerge, which may reduce Türkiye’s competitiveness in the international arena in the long run. Likewise, as I have stated in several previous commentaries, parallel to the rise of the elderly in the Turkish population, retirees and the elderly are becoming the kingmakers in Turkish politics.

Supportive policies

Essentially, the "at least three children" policy that President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been advocating for a long time is a policy solution to protect and increase the youth population. However, TurkStat’s projections show that this policy alone is and will not be sufficient. More comprehensive and long-term policies are needed to protect and increase the youth population.

Erdoğan’s three-child policy stands out as a defense mechanism against the aging of the population. The policy is not a definitive cure but a way to extend the demographic window of opportunity and postpone the aging crisis. However, in addition, to incentivize an increase in birth rates, young people should also be supported in the areas of education, health and employment. Türkiye should both increase birth rates and better support the existing youth against the decline of the active population. In this context, strengthening the education system, ensuring the participation of young people in the workforce and encouraging young entrepreneurs are of great importance.

Steps to alleviate the crisis

As a solution, policies that support the youth population and mitigate the potentially devastating effects of the elderly population need to be implemented. Türkiye needs to take urgent action to mitigate the impact of the aging crisis. TurkStat’s data and projections reveal with alarm that the youth population is rapidly decreasing, which could have serious economic and social consequences. In this context, the following steps are gaining importance: