The evolving geopolitical landscape, marked by the complex interplay of regional alliances, energy interests and cultural ties, redefines relationships between the Turkic states and the European Union. Historically, these relations have been guided by a mutual interest in stability, trade and cultural exchange. However, recent developments suggest that this cooperation is at a critical juncture. The future of these relations hinges on whether both sides can navigate a path that acknowledges their shared interests while respecting their distinct identities and strategic priorities.

The relationship between the Turkic states – comprising countries like Türkiye, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan – and the EU has always blended pragmatism and mutual benefit. Türkiye, as the most prominent of them, has long been the focal point of this relationship. Its decades-long EU accession process, though fraught with challenges, symbolizes the broader aspirations of the Turkic world to align with European economic and political standards.

For the other Turkic states, the EU has been seen as a key partner in diversifying their economies, modernizing their infrastructures and enhancing their global standing. The EU’s role in providing development aid, fostering trade and promoting democratic governance has been pivotal in shaping the political and economic landscapes of these nations. In return, the EU has benefited from access to the rich energy resources of Central Asia, strategic transport routes and a buffer against instability in the region.

Shifting dynamics

However, the dynamics of this relationship have shifted dramatically in recent years. The rise of assertive powers, the resurgence of nationalist sentiments and the increasing importance of non-Western alliances have all contributed to a new geopolitical environment. For the Turkic states, this has meant reassessing their foreign policy priorities, with a growing emphasis on strengthening ties with other regional players, such as Russia and China, through initiatives like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

At the same time, the EU has found itself grappling with internal challenges that have strained its external relationships. The ongoing debates over immigration, economic integration and the rise of some movements within the bloc have made it more inward-looking. This inward turn has, in many ways, slowed the momentum of EU enlargement and has led to a more cautious approach in its dealings with neighboring regions, including the Turkic world.

The role of Türkiye

Türkiye’s role as a bridge between the EU and the broader Turkic world cannot be overstated. Its historical ties with Europe, coupled with its leadership within the Organization of Turkic States (OTS), position it as a key player in shaping the future of these relations. Yet, Türkiye’s own relationship with the EU has become increasingly complex. The stalled accession process and disagreements over many angles have led to a cooling of relations between Ankara and Brussels.

In recent years, Türkiye has sought to assert its independence on the global stage, pursuing a more autonomous foreign policy that often diverges from EU positions. This has been evident in its involvement in conflicts in Syria, Libya and the Eastern Mediterranean and its growing ties with Russia. While these moves have strengthened Türkiye’s regional influence, they have also raised concerns in European capitals about the direction of Turkish foreign policy.

The EU, for its part, has been cautious in its response. While recognizing Türkiye’s strategic importance, it has been reluctant to fully embrace Ankara’s regional maneuvers, fearing that they may conflict with EU interests. This cautious approach has contributed to a growing sense of estrangement between Türkiye and the EU, raising questions about the future of their partnership.

New regional bloc?

As Türkiye’s relationship with the EU has become more strained, the importance of the OTS, which aims at enhancing cooperation among Turkic-speaking states, has grown. The OTS has sought to strengthen political, economic and cultural ties among its members. With the potential expansion to include other Turkic-speaking countries and observer states, the organization could emerge as a significant regional bloc with its own strategic priorities.

For the EU, the rise of the OTS presents both opportunities and challenges. On the one hand, the organization’s focus on regional cooperation aligns with the EU’s own goals of promoting stability and development in its neighborhood. On the other hand, the OTS’s growing influence could complicate the EU’s efforts to engage with individual Turkic states, particularly if the organization adopts positions that diverge from EU policies.

The challenge for the EU will be to find a way to engage with the OTS in a manner that respects the organization’s regional autonomy while ensuring that its interests are considered. This will require a nuanced approach that balances the EU’s strategic interests with the need to respect the sovereignty and agency of the Turkic states.

The energy factor

Energy is one of the most significant aspects of the relationship between the Turkic states and the EU. Central Asia is home to some of the world’s largest oil, gas and minerals reserves, making it a critical region for global energy markets. For the EU, which relies heavily on energy imports, the Turkic states represent a vital source of energy diversification, particularly as Europe seeks to reduce its dependence on Russian energy.

The development of energy corridors, such as the Southern Gas Corridor, which transports Caspian gas to Europe via Türkiye, has been a key component of this relationship. These projects not only provide the EU with a reliable energy supply but also offer the Turkic states an opportunity to enhance their economic development and global integration.

However, the energy relationship between the Turkic states and the EU has challenges. The competition for control over energy resources and transport routes has often led to geopolitical tensions, both within the region and between external powers. The increasing involvement of China in Central Asia’s energy sector through projects like the Belt and Road Initiative presents a potential challenge to the EU’s influence in the region. As China invests heavily in infrastructure and energy projects across Central Asia, it could shift the balance of power in the region, potentially reducing the EU’s leverage.

Bridge or barrier?

Beyond the geopolitical and economic considerations, the relationship between the Turkic states and the EU is also shaped by cultural factors. The Turkic world shares a rich cultural heritage that is distinct from, yet deeply interconnected with, the broader Eurasian region. This cultural connection has the potential to serve as a bridge between the Turkic states and Europe, fostering greater understanding and cooperation. Cultural differences have also been a source of diversity, where different historical experiences and governance models prevail. These differences have led to mutual understanding on both sides, but there can be some challenges, which will require a more culturally sensitive approach that acknowledges the unique historical and social contexts of the Turkic world.

The challenge for the Turkic states will be to balance their regional ambitions with the need for constructive engagement with the EU. This will require carefully calibrating foreign policy priorities, ensuring that their relations with other regional powers do not come at the expense of their ties with Europe.

As for the EU, the challenge will be to adapt its approach to a changing geopolitical environment. This will involve not only strengthening its engagement with individual Turkic states but also finding ways to work with regional organizations like the OTS. The EU will need to demonstrate a greater willingness to understand and respect the strategic priorities of the Turkic world while also promoting its own values and interests.

Ultimately, the future of cooperation between the Turkic states and the EU will depend on their ability to balance competition and collaboration. If both sides can navigate this complex landscape with wisdom and foresight, they may yet find a path toward a more cooperative and mutually beneficial relationship.

One thing is clear in this environment: The relationship between the Turkic states and the EU is at a crossroads. Despite the challenges, the relationship between the Turkic states and the EU holds great promise. With shared interests in stability, economic growth and cultural exchange, both sides have the potential to build a strong, mutually beneficial partnership. By focusing on common goals and engaging in constructive dialogue, the Turkic states and the EU can overcome obstacles and enhance cooperation. Embracing this opportunity for collaboration will strengthen their bilateral ties and contribute to broader regional prosperity and stability. With commitment and understanding, a positive and productive future awaits for both partners.