The absence of a dominant power in Iraq has transformed the country into a battlefield of geopolitical rivalry since 2003. Iraq presents geopolitical significance, triggering competition among countries. Regional actors, including Iran, the United States and Saudi Arabia, compete to expand their influence in Iraq’s political and security domains. Contrary to the other actors, Türkiye’s active involvement in Iraq stems from its desire to play a leading role in the region, underscored by recent diplomatic engagements, including Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed S. Al Sudani’s visit to Türkiye and President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s reciprocal visit to Iraq. Such visits reflect a mutual interest in fostering stronger bilateral relations, aiming to stabilize Iraq and align its governance structures with Türkiye’s interests.
In a recent field study, academics, including me, examined shifting alliances, identity politics and local, regional and international interplays in Irbil, Duhok and Kirkuk. There remains a struggle to balance intersecting relationships between ethnic and political groups in Iraq's current sociopolitical landscape. Kurdish political movements, Iraqi Turkmen aspirations and the intervention of regional or international actors such as Iran and the United States shape this landscape. Iraq's geopolitical significance is deepened by the ambitions and penetrations of various political and ethnic groups inside and outside the country. At the same time, external actors fuel regional instability and shape local autonomy aspirations.
In this context, the future of political movements in Iraq and the country's Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) is closely tied not only to local aspirations but also to the strategic objectives of global and regional powers. In this regard, Türkiye has played an active and constructive role in Iraq's stability. Türkiye has been active in Iraqi politics on at least five different issues.
Türkiye has been considered as a model of democratic transformation for the Kurdistan Islamic Union, a prominent conservative party in Irbil. The party advocates for greater organizational support and guidance from Türkiye's ruling party, the Justice and Development Party (AK Party), to replicate and reproduce Türkiye's political structure and influence. Kurdish-Islamic political actors demonstrate an ideological alignment with Turkish conservative values by aspiring to position themselves within a transnational Kurdish-Muslim setting. This suggests that Türkiye's political influence extends beyond its borders, influencing Kurdish politics within Iraq's Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG).
On the other hand, Türkiye holds strong military deterrence against Iran’s expanding influence. In this regard, by coordinating with the KRG and the Iraq Turkmen Front (ITC), which has a strong base in cities like Kirkuk, Irbil and Sulaymaniyah, Türkiye can counterbalance Tehran’s expansionist policy in Iraq. The ITC’s political and military capacities position it as a formidable force against Iranian encroachment. This is not only for Turkmen rights but also as a bulwark against Iran's influence. This cooperation, potentially involving Türkiye and pro-Türkiye actors in Iraq, could limit Iran’s ambitions while enhancing Türkiye’s regional influence.
On the other hand, Türkiye's Iraq policy ensures the protection of Turkmens and people of other Turkic identities, strengthening their representation. In Kirkuk and other Iraqi cities, Turkmens remain a culturally, historically and religiously connected group to Türkiye. However, they face representation challenges within Iraq’s political system. Many Turkmens argue that their political representation is inadequate, hindered by systematic demographic engineering that has altered the ethnic composition of traditionally Turkmen areas. The city of Kirkuk, historically a Turkish cultural hub, has experienced significant Arabization and Kurdification, leading to severe marginalization of Turkmens. Irbil-based Kurdish actors, however, contest Turkmen groups' population claims, attributing their perceived underrepresentation to inflated demographic figures rather than deliberate marginalization. Meanwhile, efforts to preserve historical sites important to Turkmens' heritage face neglect, weakening their cultural presence and historical legacy in Iraq.
Iraq's internal politics directly affect Türkiye. The 2017 independence referendum with overwhelming support (93%) for Kurdish autonomy has been criticized in Türkiye because it could encourage Kurds to seek autonomy. Continuing to resonate within the KRG, Türkiye has clearly stood against the referendum along with the international community, particularly the United States, Iran, Türkiye and the Iraqi central government opposed the move; the sentiment of lost sovereignty and incomplete aspirations persists among the Kurdish population. The referendum's rejection by foreign actors highlights the delicate balance of power in the region, where the establishment of a Kurdish state is seen as a destabilizing factor. Notably, Israel voiced vocal support for Kurdish independence. However, this backing had little practical impact, as many Kurds remain sympathetic to the Palestinian cause and maintain no active ties with Israel.
Iraq presents geostrategic gains due to its location. In this sense, Iraq’s strategic importance extends beyond political and security concerns to economic development initiatives like the Development Road, a project to foster employment, stability and investment in the country. This initiative seeks to integrate Iraq into regional and global economic networks, enhancing its infrastructural and logistical capacities. Türkiye is central to this project, contributing to its construction and implementation. The Development Road, designed to connect Iraq with broader trade routes, has the potential to serve as a stabilizing factor for Iraq. It integrates it into a regional economic framework that could reduce the country’s dependency on external powers and promote regional interdependence.
To sum up, Iraq remains a complex and contested region where local identities, transnational alliances and foreign interventions converge. The Kurdish political landscape is divided between pro-Turkish and ambivalent factions, complicating Ankara’s efforts to solidify its regional influence. Turkmen's struggles in Kirkuk reveal the ongoing challenges of demographic engineering and representation, while the 2017 independence referendum continues to fuel a sense of disenfranchisement among Kurds. The Development Road and Türkiye’s collaboration with the ITC illustrate Türkiye’s efforts to position itself as a stabilizing force within Iraq, counterbalancing Iranian expansion and fostering regional connectivity. Northern Iraq reflects broader geopolitical contests through these dynamics, where each actor's aspirations and actions will shape the region’s future stability and integration.
