The election of reformist candidate Masoud Pezeshkian as the new president of Iran following the death of Ebrahim Raisi signals potential changes in Iran's regional and international stance. This development holds particular significance for relations with Türkiye, another dominant regional power.

During and after the election, Turkish media frequently highlighted Pezeshkian’s Azerbaijani roots and speculated on the potential impact on bilateral relations. However, does the new president's Turkic origin promise a new impetus for Türkiye-Iran ties? Can Pezeshkian make significant decisions despite the entrenched regime?

These questions will become more evident over time. However, it is crucial to note that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the conservatives fundamentally designed Iran’s domestic and foreign policies. Additionally, considering the conservatives' power in the Iranian Parliament and judiciary, significant changes seem unlikely.

Türkiye and Iran have historically developed complex relations as two regional powers. In Iran’s political structure, the supreme leader holds ultimate authority, and the balance between reformists and conservatives is a key determinant. While Pezeshkian's rise boosts the hopes of the Turkic minorities in Iran, his capacity to make radical changes in foreign policy is limited.

Opportunities and obstacles

Ethnic and cultural ties, economic cooperation and regional security dynamics could play a significant role in the relations between the two countries. Pezeshkian's Turkic roots and his affinity for Turkic culture might positively influence cultural relations between Türkiye and Iran. However, Iran's supreme leader and conservative factions will delineate the boundaries of this rapprochement. For example, Iran’s stance on events such as the Turkic World Congress held in Türkiye could be an essential indicator of these limits.

Collaboration in energy, trade and infrastructure projects offers both countries the chance to maximize their mutual interests. Prior to the sanctions, Iran’s natural gas and oil were important for meeting Türkiye’s energy needs. However, the sanctions have significantly curtailed these energy flows. Nevertheless, if Tehran is freed from sanctions, there are still opportunities for enhanced economic cooperation, particularly through integrating Iran’s resources with Türkiye's Trans Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP). Additionally, both nations have the potential to serve as a trade bridge between Asia and Europe, which could foster partnerships in logistics and transportation projects. However, Iran’s posture vis-a-vis Azerbaijan and Armenia could complicate these promising prospects.

From a security perspective, the two countries have often sided with opposing groups and stood opposed on various issues, such as the Syrian civil war, instability in Iraq and the fight against terrorist organizations like the PKK and Daesh. Despite this challenging security environment, both governments continue to engage in political dialogue, exchange intelligence and address military matters to uphold regional security.

Impact of external factors

External factors like the U.S. sanctions on Iran and Russia's presence in Syria have a direct impact on Türkiye-Iran relations. Türkiye’s NATO membership and its ties with the U.S. have frequently influenced its relationship with Iran. However, Russia’s growing influence in the region, combined with Türkiye-Russia cooperation, could facilitate a balanced tripartite arrangement involving Iran. For instance, the Astana Process – where Türkiye, Iran and Russia collaborate on Syria – serves as a notable model for regional security and cooperation.

The trade volume between Türkiye and Iran, which was approximately $22 billion in 2012, declined to $7.4 billion by 2023. This significant decrease can primarily be attributed to the severe sanctions imposed by the EU and the U.S. in response to Iran's nuclear program. If Pezeshkian can improve Tehran's relations with the West and lift the sanctions, he could potentially strengthen economic ties with Türkiye, leading to a resurgence in bilateral economic relations.

President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has expressed optimism about enhancing Türkiye-Iran relations by leveraging Pezeshkian’s ethnic background as a diplomatic asset. Erdoğan believes that Pezeshkian’s Azerbaijani heritage could help strengthen cultural and ethnic connections between Türkiye and Iran’s Azerbaijani community. As a multilingual politician fluent in Azerbaijani, Kurdish and Persian, Pezeshkian has the potential to deepen diplomatic ties between the two countries. However, it’s important to note that Pezeshkian’s election is unlikely to bring about a complete shift in Iran’s political landscape, which remains complex and controlled tightly by the supreme leader’s authority.

In his article "My Message to the New World" for the Tehran Times, Pezeshkian shared his government's road map for domestic and foreign policy and his message to the world. Pezeshkian promised reforms during his election campaign, aiming to establish national unity internally and constructive relations with the world. He emphasized that Iran would act in accordance with its national honor and interests in foreign policy, prioritizing peace and security over conflict and tension. Pezeshkian expressed his desire to deepen economic relations, develop trade and promote joint investment with countries such as Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Iraq, Bahrain, Qatar and Kuwait.

Beneath the surface, tensions simmer between the two governments. Numerous sources report that Iran has supplied kamikaze UAVs to the PKK, which can target Turkish UAVs. Another contentious issue is the Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict. While Türkiye supports Azerbaijan, Iran maintains close ties with Armenia. Some sources suggest that Iran and Armenia have recently concluded a secret arms deal worth $500 million, which will undoubtedly raise tensions in the region. On the other side of the coin, Türkiye's military presence in Syria and Iraq is causing discomfort for Iran.

All things considered, Pezeshkian’s Turkic roots would matter little in the realm of international relations. The Iranian president’s statements affirming his loyalty to the supreme leader and critical institutions suggest that significant changes are unlikely. Political decisions in Iran continue to be heavily influenced by the supreme leader and a conservative structure, limiting the scope for radical shifts in foreign policy.