The 15th BRICS Summit, which started with an atmosphere of high expectations and excitement in the Sandton banking district in Johannesburg, South Africa, between Aug. 22-24, 2023, ended with historic developments.

South Africa, which hosted the summit in the shadow of domestic unrest caused by deep economic uncertainties such as the energy crisis and high unemployment, hosted Chinese President Xi Jinping, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. The summit discussed the global and regional agenda as well as the expectations and goals for developing the BRICS partnership in political, economic, cultural and humanitarian dimensions. Leaders also discussed the de-dollarization of the global economy and the possibility of creating a new reserve currency.

There is growing global interest in the BRICS coalition, which aims to increase the representation of developing countries. BRICS membership is perceived as entry into a non-Western club where emerging markets and developing countries aim to revitalize multilateralism through equitable interactions and common interests. For countries that have formally or informally applied for membership or expressed interest in joining, BRICS membership brings advantages related to trade and market access, foreign direct investment, and increased bargaining power and voice in international affairs.

The growing interest in BRICS indicates that emerging economies want to develop deeper and more comprehensive bilateral relations with each of the great powers in an international conjuncture in which the U.S.-China relationship reflects an adversarial rather than competitive stance. While there are multiple ideological backgrounds for different power centers to apply for membership in BRICS, the bloc’s economic development potential and multilateral cooperation mechanism and expectations for strengthening a fairer global order have also been effective.

West’s weakening influence

In the face of the weakening of Western countries’ positions in the international system that they have shaped in the course of historical development, these countries want to strengthen their relations with BRICS countries, which have the energy, food and technological resources they need to increase their political and economic influence. In addition, the unconditional aid and investments of BRICS members China and Russia, as well as their policies of non-interference in internal affairs, make BRICS a center of attraction for developing countries.

BRICS leaders shared divergent views ahead of the summit on an expansion that could lead to a paradigm shift in global governance. Russian President Vladimir Putin attended the summit via video link because the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant against him for the invasion of Ukraine. In this context, Russia has been the most welcoming member of the BRICS bloc due to its international isolation. India has adopted a distant stance on enlargement, mainly due to its concern that the bloc’s expansion would increase China’s influence. Brazil’s President Lula, on the other hand, remained neutral on the idea of enlargement due to concerns that possible enlargement would increase the number of different voices within the bloc and thus increase the likelihood of achieving a common consensus.

South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, who hosted the summit, expressed support for enlargement, arguing that the goals and objectives of BRICS extend far beyond the achievements of its members and that more diverse voices are needed to achieve them.

Expansion has long been a goal for China, which hopes a broader membership will bring influence to a group that is already home to nearly 40% of the world’s population and a quarter of the global gross domestic product (GDP).

Although leaders have disagreed on whether to expand the bloc, the process of BRICS recruitment began in 2007 with the creation of "BRICS Plus," inviting non-BRICS government officials to participate in the talks. Russia and China have supported expanding BRICS Plus membership and cooperation, including the expansion of BRICS members.

At the 15th BRICS Summit, the leaders jointly announced in the 2nd Johannesburg Declaration that Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) will become full members of BRICS as of Jan. 1, 2024. The geopolitical importance of the new potential members regarding energy, water and food connections is noteworthy.

With the admission of the new members, the currently loosely organized international bloc of leading non-Western countries such as Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa will increase its membership to 11. With the focus of BRICS rapidly shifting toward other emerging economies, the bloc will need a new nomenclature and a formal structure to regulate its objectives, policies, bodies and decision-making methods.

While the guiding principles, standards and criteria for the BRICS expansion process will be shaped over time, it is important to consider what strategic gains this expansion will bring for the countries that are accepted as members.

Ethiopia, which was invited to join the bloc, applied for membership to realize its desire to improve its economic prospects and increase the weight of its country on the global stage. Ethiopia, which has made steady progress in the process of economic transformation in Africa, is the continent’s eighth-largest economy with natural resources such as gold, platinum, copper, natural gas and hydropower.

Ethiopia is the second most populous country in Africa and hosts the headquarters of the African Union, making it a strong potential member of BRICS. Ethiopia is an important trading partner for the bloc members China and India and has strong trade and economic relations with South Africa, which is the gateway of the bloc to Africa. Therefore, Ethiopia’s inclusion in the bloc is a positive win-win for all parties.

Since BRICS’s openness and win-win cooperation mechanism promise to build a fairer world order, Argentine leaders who have applied for BRICS membership think that membership in the bloc will increase their economic gains. While questions remain to be answered as to how Argentina, which is going through a deep financial crisis, will contribute to the spirit of the bloc, Argentina’s membership will expand BRICS’s footprint in the global south. However, South America’s second-largest economy has always attracted foreign investors with its natural and human wealth. Therefore, in an international system where the competition between the U.S. and China has spread to almost every corner of the globe, it can be said that G-20 member Argentina’s joining the BRICS ranks is a step toward improving China-Latin America relations.

Gulf states and BRICS

Egypt, along with South Africa and Ethiopia, is positioned as the gateway of BRICS to Africa due to its natural and human resources, as well as its readiness to play an increasing role in the economy of North Africa and the Middle East as the most populous country in the region with a population of 105 million. Seeking to improve its political and economic relations with BRICS members as well as to increase joint projects and investments, Egypt participated in the BRICS summits in 2007 and 2022, showing its interest in membership of the bloc. Both BRICS’s appetite for opening up to the continent due to Africa’s increasing weight in global geopolitics and Egypt’s desire for market integration and enhanced cooperation due to the economic stagnation Egypt experienced in 2022 opened the door to Egypt’s admission to BRICS membership. Aiming to achieve economic growth through foreign investments, Egypt sees BRICS membership as an important gain in terms of financial stability.

Saudi Arabia, one of the world’s largest crude oil exporters, holds 15% of global oil reserves. A founding member of OPEC, Saudi Arabia’s gold and foreign exchange reserves reached $693 billion by 2022, according to Central Bank statistics. As one of the most prominent players in the global energy, finance and investment market, Saudi Arabia’s BRICS membership will increase energy security and cooperation among member countries. Saudi Arabia, which will significantly increase the visibility of the bloc on the global energy scene, will benefit from the BRICS market, whose sphere of influence is expanding through its membership in the bloc. In this way, Saudi Arabia will reduce its dependence on Western blocs and, at the same time, increase the economic dynamism and investment power of BRICS.

Iran’s geostrategic location in the center of the Middle East will provide BRICS with a key sphere of influence, and its membership in BRICS, where Beijing and Moscow aim to increase trade and reduce economic dependence on the West, will create significant gains for both sides. Iran, which has the second-largest gas reserves in the world, is subject to strict economic sanctions and international isolation due to its nuclear program. In this context, Iran aims to minimize the impact of sanctions by giving its struggling economy a new lease of life through BRICS membership. Having strategic relations with the founding BRICS countries such as South Africa, Brazil and India, Iran sees BRICS membership as an important gateway to wider markets. Therefore, BRICS membership will diversify Iran’s economy and boost the BRICS economies.

As one of the major economic players in the Gulf in areas such as oil, gas, finance, trade, tourism and logistics, the UAE's membership in BRICS has the potential to create significant ruptures in a conjuncture where the voices of de-dollarization are loudly heard. With its strong financial support, the UAE, which has the power to influence the geopolitical dynamics of the financial world, will increase the economic capacity of the bloc and reduce its dependence on the U.S. dollar. With the financial support provided by the UAE, the bloc will expand its investment area and increase its influence capacity.

The most important benefit of BRICS membership for the UAE will be the diversification of political and economic ties. For the UAE, which considers the founding countries China and India as potential markets for its expansion in South Asia, Russia stands out as an alternative to the U.S., which is seen as its historical ally but seeks to reduce its political and economic dependence.

In particular, the participation of oil-producing countries such as Iran, Saudi Arabia and the UAE in BRICS will mean that the bloc will dominate 31% of global energy production, which is a significant development that will create changes in global energy import and export balances. Seeing that the world’s leading energy suppliers and buyers are included in BRICS, countries will shift their focus to the global southern bloc.

Sending membership invitations to the so-called node countries will increase the global visibility of BRICS because the countries that have applied for membership or expressed their desire to join BRICS are already important centers of attraction in their regions. Thus, the inclusion of Ethiopia, Argentina, Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Iran in BRICS, which seeks to increase its influence and sphere of influence by including countries with emerging economies or geopolitical playmakers in the bloc, is not surprising.

As a result, BRICS expansion holds promise for international diplomacy and constructive engagement. It opens up opportunities and innovative approaches to address issues of global importance, from economic inequalities to environmental concerns, beyond BRICS’s geographical borders. With the enlargement, BRICS’s GDP now accounts for 36% of global GDP and 47% of the world’s population. While it is too early to say whether a plurivocal BRICS will be stronger, even intra-bloc enlargement will bring about significant changes in the global political and economic architecture.