U.S. President Joe Biden finds himself contending with an Israel-Gaza dilemma that threatens to reverberate through the upcoming election cycle. Recent surveys reveal a stark reality: a majority, if not two-thirds, of Americans have expressed dissatisfaction with the president's handling of the Gaza conflict. Significantly, Democratic donors have also sounded the alarm, cautioning that the president's stout support for Israel's actions could exact a toll at the ballot box come November. But will it? Skepticism abounds among academics and analysts who contend that foreign policy seldom dictates electoral outcomes.

Americans typically prioritize domestic concerns over international affairs, often molding their views to align with their party or preferred candidate. While firm convictions may emerge when American lives are imperiled, the Gaza crisis lacks this urgency. As such, the impact of Biden's Israel predicament on the electoral landscape remains uncertain, subject to the mercurial currents of public opinion and partisan allegiance. In the turbulent landscape of American politics, the conflict in Gaza has emerged as a potentially decisive factor in the 2024 election cycle, signaling a departure from past electoral norms. Even seasoned observers, including academics and pollsters, acknowledge the unique electoral significance of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict compared to other international issues, such as the ongoing crisis in Ukraine.

The Gaza conflict can galvanize a spectrum of political forces that could trouble Democrats. Within the party itself, the issue is fraught with division, pitting pro-Palestine factions against staunchly pro-Israel constituencies. Moreover, the conflict's prominence in mainstream media and across social platforms ensures its resonance in the public consciousness, influencing perceptions of current events and political discourse. For many progressive activists, protesting against Israeli actions represents a crusade for social justice, intertwining the Palestinian cause with domestic battles against racial discrimination and inequality. As the humanitarian crisis deepens with no clear resolution in sight, a growing chorus of frustrated American voters cast a skeptical eye toward the White House, questioning its capacity to effect change on the global stage. This sense of impotence only reinforces the perception of a waning American influence abroad, further eroding confidence in Washington's leadership under Biden's tenure.

Gaza emerges as potential game-changer in tight race

Compounding these concerns are the razor-thin margins that have defined recent presidential elections. With current polls indicating a dead heat between Biden and Donald Trump, every electoral factor looms large. Against this backdrop, the Gaza conflict has suddenly become a potential game-changer, capable of shifting even a modest percentage of votes in battleground states.

In an electoral landscape characterized by tight races and decisive swings, the impact of Gaza could prove decisive in determining the outcome of the 2024 election. Conventional wisdom suggests that domestic concerns hold greater sway over voters than international affairs, a sentiment echoed by leading pollsters like Pew and Gallup. In an era of intense partisan division, foreign policy holds diminishing influence, as voters often prioritize party allegiance over individual policy stances. International issues wield varying degrees of influence on American elections; their impact is contingent on public engagement and opinion. Moments like the Iran hostage crisis during Jimmy Carter's presidency or Ronald Reagan's portrayal of Carter as soft on communism demonstrate the electoral potency of foreign policy narratives. Divisive foreign affairs can fracture parties, as seen in the Democratic split over the Vietnam War in 1968, which hampered nominee Hubert Humphrey.

However, when international issues resonate with voters and amplify existing fault lines, they have the potential to shape electoral outcomes. Gaza's turmoil could echo past foreign conflicts with significant domestic ramifications. According to several academics, while liberal dissent over Biden's Gaza strategy exists, the urge to thwart Trump's return may override these concerns. Yet, for some left-leaning voters already disenchanted with Biden pre-Gaza, the crisis could prove pivotal. These voters may falter in their turnout. In an election landscape where every vote counts, Gaza's spotlight could either galvanize support for Biden among liberals or further erode his standing among disaffected progressives. Thus, the conflict's impact extends beyond the shores of the Middle East, shaping the intricate calculus of American electoral politics.

Recalibrating his stance on Israel could hold the key to bolstering Biden’s support within certain segments of the Democratic Party. Recent shifts in public sentiment indicate a growing pro-Palestinian sentiment among Democrats, marking a significant departure from previous attitudes. A Quinnipiac poll conducted last month underscores this trend, revealing that 48% of Democrats now express greater sympathy toward Palestinians, compared to 21% favoring Israel. This transformation represents a near reversal from Oct. 17, where the majority of Democrats leaned towards Israeli sympathies. For Biden, recognizing and responding to this evolving dynamic within his party may prove instrumental in securing broader support and navigating the complexities of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict on the domestic front.

Unlike the Republican Party's cohesion on the issue, Democrats grapple with internal discord reminiscent of the Vietnam era's turmoil in 1968, albeit on a smaller scale. As the campus protests gain traction, the parallels grow starker, providing fertile ground for Republican wedge politics, as noted by political analyst Tesler.

In the crucible of Gaza, the interplay between party dynamics and perceptions of leadership reflects the high-stakes nature of American politics on the global stage. The prominence of Gaza in the public consciousness has made such maneuvering challenging for Biden. Despite the unpopularity of his approach, Biden appears hesitant to pursue a radical departure, opting for continuity over risk. Politically, Biden stands to gain if the U.S. can leverage its influence to broker an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, demonstrating efficacy on the world stage.

However, failure in this endeavor risks exacerbating perceptions of his ineffectiveness, compounding existing doubts among voters. In contrast, former President Trump's adeptness at projecting strength resonates with a populace hungry for assurance amid global uncertainty. Biden's comparatively weaker image on foreign policy, underscored by polls, suggests an uphill battle for him to dispel perceptions of ineffectuality in the face of escalating Middle East tensions. In a climate where crises loom large, the allure of strength in leadership may prove decisive in shaping electoral outcomes.

*Op-ed contributor based in Karachi, Pakistan