Türkiye faced a historic election on May 14. In accordance with the presidential government system, both the presidential election and the 28th-term parliamentary general election were held on the same day. According to the results announced by the Supreme Election Council (YSK), the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party), which received 35.6% of the votes and 268 deputies, finished ahead in the general election. All four parties of the People’s Alliance, with a total of 322 deputies, received 49.4% of the vote, outperforming the Nation Alliance by about 15 points. Thus, the will to represent the nation in Parliament until 2028 has been finalized.

In the presidential election, despite all the perception operations and poll manipulations, the candidate of the People’s Alliance, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, received 49.2% of the vote and was on the verge of being elected in the first round. Since his rivals Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the candidate of the Nation Alliance, and Sinan Oğan, the candidate of the ATA Alliance, did not receive more than 50% of the votes, the presidential election was left to the second round to be held on May 28. Based on the results of the first round and the prevailing public perception, Erdoğan is expected to be reelected on May 28 to govern Türkiye for another five years.

According to the results of the general election and the first round of ballots for the Presidency, 1.8 million of the 3.5 million voters (53.8%) registered in the foreign electoral roll voted. Considering that the domestic participation rate is 88.8%, it can be said that the participation rate abroad remained relatively low. However, it seems that votes abroad played an important role in determining the outcome of both elections.

Before making a detailed analysis of the subject, it should be noted that the valid votes cast abroad for the presidential election are calculated by directly being included in the voting pool in Türkiye. For the parliamentary elections, according to the 10th article of circular numbered 136 issued by the YSK, the valid number of votes cast abroad is transferred to the electoral districts in Türkiye regardless of where they are cast and is distributed proportionally to the number of voters of the regions.

According to the results announced by the YSK, 44.4% of the 1.8 million voters who cast their votes at the customs gates and foreign representations in 73 countries voted for the AK Party and 23.5% for the Republican People's Party (CHP). For the presidential election, 1 million of the 1.8 million voters (57.4%) preferred Erdoğan. His closest rival Kılıçdaroğlu received only 39.5% of the votes abroad. Therefore, Erdoğan and the AK Party finished first in the race abroad as well.

In addition, Erdoğan achieved historical success by getting more than 65% of the votes in Germany, France, the Netherlands and Belgium, which are among the European countries with the highest number of voters abroad. These results indicate that, despite all the black propaganda activities, the voters abroad trusted President Erdoğan and showed great favor to his party. This situation, which was also manifested in previous elections, should not be seen as a surprise development for Erdoğan and the AK Party because there is a long story behind this success.

Why Erdoğan and AK Party?

The reasons behind the favor shown by the voters abroad toward Erdoğan and the AK Party can be interpreted under six topics. In this context, first of all, it should be mentioned that Erdoğan has always shown a close and sincere interest in the Turkish community in the diaspora since 2002 when he took office as prime minister. Unlike most of the leaders before him, Erdoğan never saw Turks living abroad as a vote or a currency store. On the contrary, in almost every visit he made to European countries, he met face-to-face with the expatriates or their delegates. In these contacts, Erdoğan listened to the problems experienced by Turks abroad and took the necessary steps to overcome these problems. As a result, Erdoğan’s interest in Turks abroad and his relationship with them turned into a sincere bond of love over time. So much so that whenever Erdoğan went to countries with a strong Turkish diaspora like Germany, he was met with a flood of love from the Turks living there. This interest is a concrete example of showing the sincere love and strong support of Turks living abroad for Erdoğan.

Secondly, Erdoğan did not hesitate to speak out loudly against the discriminatory policies applied to Turks, especially in European countries. Even in his first days as prime minister, Erdoğan supported the Turkish society, whose existence was deliberately ignored and whose rights were violated to protect their own identity. This approach, which created a strong sense of belonging and trust for Turks abroad, has allowed a positive image for Erdoğan and the AK Party governments. Likewise, Erdoğan won the admiration and appreciation of Turks abroad with his upright stance to protect Türkiye’s rights and interests, both during his prime ministry and his presidency.

Thirdly, AK Party governments led by Erdoğan have operated many institutional projects for Turks abroad. Chief among these is the Presidency for Turks Abroad and Related Communities (YTB). In 2010, the 60th government, led by Erdoğan, established the YTB and gave this new organization the task of coordinating the efforts of Turks living abroad. The YTB also undersigned many projects to solve the problems of Turks living abroad and to keep their ties with their homeland alive. Every project implemented for the Turkish diaspora under the leadership of the YTB has not only protected the ties of Turks abroad with their homeland but also prevented them from assimilation into the society they live in.

Fourthly, Erdoğan has always attached importance to the representation of the Turkish diaspora in the Turkish Grand National Assembly to be able to solve their problems and to respond to their demands. At this point, it should be reminded that two AK Party members, Istanbul deputy Zafer Sırakaya and Konya deputy Meryem Göka, who were entitled to enter Parliament as a result of the general election held on May 14, are parts of the Turkish diaspora. Therefore, Erdoğan took concrete steps toward their political representation in their homeland, as well as his close interest in the Turkish community abroad.

Fifth, the AK Party governments led by Erdoğan introduced many conveniences to Turks abroad. The increase in the number of diplomatic missions is undoubtedly one of them. So much so that Türkiye has opened more than 80 new foreign representations in the last 20 years and has become one of the countries with the highest number of foreign representations in the world, after the United States, France, China, Russia and the United Kingdom. Especially with the new consulates opened in European countries, the works of the Turks started to be solved faster. In addition, the conveniences brought in Türkiye in matters such as retirement, inheritance, university entrance, citizenship, investment, real estate and customs procedures not only satisfied Turks living abroad but also increased their favor toward Erdoğan and the AK Party governments. In this respect, the voters abroad showed once again that they do not ignore the successful projects developed for them with the choices they made on May 14.

Comprehensive manifesto for Turks living abroad

Sixth, leading up to the May 14 elections, the AK Party presented a comprehensive election manifesto that made concrete and practical promises to Turks living abroad. These promises were perceived as guarantees for the future, and they resonated convincingly with overseas voters. Notably, the following promises emerged as key factors that brought satisfaction to Turks living abroad:

– Increasing the number of foreign embassies and mobile consulates in regions where they are needed,

– Granting the right to work full-time abroad for retirees through foreign borrowing,

– Recognizing military service in Türkiye based on bilateral agreements for those who serve in foreign countries,

– Involving citizens living abroad in the Mass Housing Development Administration (TOKI) projects in Türkiye,

– Reducing the minimum stay period abroad from 185 days to 30 days to facilitate the return of vehicles brought to Türkiye under temporary importation, after completing the required 730-day stay period,

– Extending the unregistered usage period for mobile devices brought from abroad from 120 days to 180 days for citizens residing overseas,

– Establishing YTB consultancy offices within foreign embassies located in regions with a significant Turkish population,

– Increasing the employment opportunities for young people born and raised abroad in public institutions that cater to the needs of citizens living overseas.

Consequently, the support received by President Erdoğan and the AK Party from foreign voters on May 14 was not coincidental or surprising. Erdoğan's sincere approach toward Turks who have had to live or work far away from their homeland, along with the beneficial projects that AK Party governments have already implemented and promised to implement, played a decisive role in garnering support from voters residing abroad.

Finally, based on the results of the votes abroad on 14 May, it is possible to make some predictions about the second round of the presidential election, which will take place on May 28. In this context, Turkish citizens abroad are expected to show the same interest in the second round as they showed in the first round. Also, the turnout rate in the second round will most likely be about the same as the turnout in the first round. In other words, it is seen as a low probability that the participation rate from abroad will exceed 55% in the second round of the presidential election. More importantly, it is predicted that by repeating the will of the voters abroad on May 14, they will vote for Erdoğan on May 28.