Relations between India and Canada have been in trouble for more than a year and there is little sign of things getting better as recriminations continue. At the center of their standoff is the assassination of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a 45-year-old Sikh activist and Canadian citizen of Indian descent. Canada blames "agents of the government of India" for his killing and has demanded India's cooperation in the investigation. New Delhi vehemently rejects the allegation and has its own set of grievances against Ottawa about Sikh diaspora politics.

Sikhs comprise about 2% of Canada's population and influence Canadian affairs. Almost 4% of Canadians are of Indian ethnic or cultural heritage overall and include Hindus, Muslims and Christians. There have been many eruptions of diplomatic rows between Canada and India since Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau made a stunning statement in the House of Commons in September 2023 in which he linked India to Nijjar's murder by unknown gunmen in June 2023.

The shocking statement was made within days of Trudeau returning from New Delhi after attending the G-20 summit. Trudeau had a separate meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, but it must have been difficult, as was immediately clear in the Indian version of the encounter. The Indian Foreign Ministry said then that Prime Minister Modi "conveyed our strong concerns about continuing anti-India activities of extremist elements in Canada." Trudeau in his Parliament statement said that he brought up the Nijjar case "personally and directly to Prime Minister Modi in no uncertain terms."

The stage was set in 2023 for a diplomatic confrontation that shows no sign of abating. The latest round of their standoff shows that Canada aims to put further pressure on India through the public spat and Canadian officials make no bones about it.

From the Canadian perspective, concerns over public safety and sovereignty override diplomatic considerations. India is upset that the dispute has become so public and garnered worldwide media attention.

If it had not been for their deep business and cultural relationship, the current crisis would have been more explosive. India was Canada's 10th largest trading partner, with bilateral trade in goods amounting to $10.50 billion in 2022, while trade in services was valued at $8.74 billion. The two countries have cooperated strongly in the civil nuclear sector since they signed an agreement in this field in 2010. India has been the largest source for international students in Canada since 2018, while Canada is one of the leading destinations for which there is a migration craze in India.

Sikh diaspora in Canada

Their people-to-people relations are underpinned by the Indian-descent community, with thriving travel, business and family links. Canada has the largest population of Sikhs outside the Indian state of Punjab. Sikhs, who follow a monotheistic faith founded in Punjab in the late 15th century, numbered about 800,000 out of more than 1.5 million Canadian citizens of Indian heritage in 2023. There are an additional 178,000 Indian nationals with Canadian residency.

With this background, what happens within the Indian segment of Canada's population has a significant impact on bilateral relations. India accuses Canada of giving space to those supporting an "anti-India separatist agenda." For example, Nijjar was an advocate of Khalistan, the idea of a Sikh homeland in India's Punjab region. He was designated as a terrorist by the Indian government.

The Khalistan movement peaked in the 1980s and was put down by Indian security forces. Tens of thousands of people lost their lives during the insurgency period. India bristles at Khalistan activism in Canada or among Sikhs settled abroad while the movement remains banned in India.

For the Sikh community, the insurgency period is full of painful memories. The June 1984 military action at the Harmandir Sahib complex, Sikhism's holiest site in Amritsar City, popularly known as the Golden Temple, to remove Sikh militants remains a distressing episode. There was widespread anti-Sikh violence in cities across India following the October 1984 assassination of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi by her two Sikh security guards, who were angry over "Operation Blue Star" at the Golden Temple.

Since Sikhs play a significant role in Canadian politics, they are wooed by the ruling Liberal Party as well as opposition parties. Trudeau is accused by India of playing "vote bank politics." Canada says it fully respects India's territorial integrity and sovereignty but cannot crack down on the political activities of its citizens.

Recent Indian statements have again focused on Trudeau as a person who was responsible for the deterioration in relations. However, India can neither be certain nor too optimistic about Canada delivering on its demands for curbs on Sikh activism, even under a different ruling dispensation.

When Trudeau, Conservative opposition leader Pierre Poilievre, New Democratic Party leader Jagmeet Singh, Toronto Mayor Olivia Chow and many parliamentarians in April this year attended a Sikh event in Toronto, it reflected the community's clout.

India protested against the raising of "Khalistan" slogans on that occasion. That all was not well between Canada and India was evident years ago. Trudeau visited India in February 2018 in what was meant to be a high-profile tour. The Indian media claimed the state visit was "downgraded" as Modi did not accompany his guest on a trip to Gujarat state. The media also noticed that Modi did not send a tweet welcoming Trudeau. Remarkably, the Indian Foreign Ministry mentioned the 2018 visit in its statement last October, saying that Trudeau's trip was "aimed at currying favor with a vote bank," but it "rebounded to his discomfort."

Serious escalation

India and Canada recently expelled six diplomats from each other in a serious escalation of tensions. It emerged on Oct.14 that Canada wanted India to waive the diplomatic immunity of its High Commissioner Sanjay Kumar Verma and other diplomats who were seen as "persons of interest" in the Nijjar murder probe. Verma and Canadian acting high commissioner Stewart Ross Wheeler were among the ejected diplomats.

Canada's diplomatic presence was reduced drastically in India in October 2023 after India demanded "parity" in mutual diplomatic presence. At that time, Canada pulled out 41 diplomats, constituting two-thirds of its diplomatic strength in India, due to India's threat of revoking their immunity.

Last month's accusations from Canada's prime minister, his foreign minister Melanie Joly and Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) commissioner Mike Duheme are far more explosive than what Trudeau said in Parliament a year ago in the Nijjar case. "We will never tolerate the involvement of a foreign government in threatening and killing Canadian citizens on Canadian soil – a deeply unacceptable violation of Canada's sovereignty and international law," Trudeau said in a statement on Oct. 14. "Once again, we call on the Government of India to cooperate with us on this investigation – to put an end to its inaction and misleading rhetoric; to recognize the credibility and severity of the evidence and information we have shared so far; and to reiterate, in no uncertain terms, that its position on extrajudicial operations abroad will henceforth be unequivocally aligned with international law," he said.

Canada accused Indian government agents of collecting information on Canadians of South Asian origin, including Sikh activists, and passing that on to an organized crime network to carry out extortion, intimidation and murder. This escalation followed talks in Singapore between the Canadian and Indian national security advisors, during which they could not agree on resolving their differences. Canada has also raised concerns about alleged Indian political interference and cyber threats.

There is an intense battle of narratives in the media. Verma, in an interview with a Canadian television network before leaving Canada, flatly dismissed Canadian allegations. When asked if he had anything to do with the Nijjar murder, Verma replied: "Nothing at all. No evidence was presented. Politically motivated." He was emphatic that it was legitimate for India to monitor activities of "pro-Khalistani elements" in Canada. "Do we want to know what pro-Khalistani elements in Canada are doing? Yes, we do. That's my national interest," he said. The differences between what Canada considers unacceptable and what India views as legitimate are irreconcilable.

'Absurd and baseless'

In recent days, Canada and India have exchanged more accusations. The most serious of these involves Home Minister Amit Shah, who is considered the most important man after Modi in the Indian government. The Washington Post newspaper last month reported Canadian allegations that "a senior official in India" had authorized "the intelligence-gathering missions and attacks on Sikh separatists" in Canada. On Oct. 29, Canada's deputy foreign minister, David Morrison, told a parliamentary committee that he had confirmed the identity of Shah to the newspaper. "The journalist called me and asked me if it was that person," Morrison said. "I confirmed it was that person."

On Saturday, India's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal called the allegation "absurd and baseless" and lodged a diplomatic protest. "In fact, the revelation that high Canadian officials deliberately leak unfounded insinuations to the international media as part of a conscious strategy to discredit India and influence other nations only confirms the view the Government of India has long held about the current Canadian government's political agenda and behavioral pattern," Jaiswal said. "Such irresponsible actions will have serious consequences for bilateral ties," he warned.

As far as political posturing is concerned, neither side is likely to budge from its publicly stated positions. Canada has talked about working with the Five Eyes intelligence alliance, which includes Australia, Britain, New Zealand and the U.S., on its concerns with regard to India. India enjoys good relations with those countries and would press them not to side with Canada.

The issue of Sikh politics in North America is likely to grow stronger. The U.S. and India are cooperating in managing the fallout of a foiled murder plot against U.S.-based Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, an associate of Nijjar and a prominent Sikh separatist leader who is considered a terrorist by the Indian government. Indian national Nikhil Gupta was arrested in Czechia last year and extradited to the U.S. in June this year to face murder-for-hire charges.

It has been alleged in U.S. Justice Department documents that Gupta worked with Vikash Yadav, who was employed by the Indian government's Cabinet Secretariat, which houses the country's foreign intelligence service, the Research and Analysis Wing (RAW). The man is no longer an Indian government employee, Jaiswal said recently. Canada has used the U.S.-foiled plot to sharpen its accusations against India, but without being able to convince India about the merit of its investigation into the Nijjar case.