Once again, the world has woken up to a new clash arising between Israel and Palestinian factions led by Hamas. Although the scale and rapid escalation of the conflict have been a surprise for the international community, the foundation of the clash bears no surprises.

Since the Palestinian state lacks any proper military capabilities to defend itself against Israeli occupation, armed political groups have assumed the role of resistance fighters in the name of the Palestinian people. The main group that was established and currently governs the Gaza Strip is Hamas, or with its official name, the Islamic Resistance Movement.

Looking back at history, the clash is nothing new, as the conflict between Israel and Palestinian factions has been ongoing for several decades, with cease-fires and lackluster attempts at peace in between each escalation. On the one hand, Hamas legitimizes its actions as resistance against the systematic and historical oppression by the Israeli side toward the Palestinian people. On the other hand, the Israeli side views Hamas as a "terrorist group" that attacks civilians and officials and a direct security threat to the state. Therefore, they legitimize all military actions realized against Hamas under self-defense and defensive realism.

The latest events have created irrational actions from both sides of the conflict; therefore, as a consequence, human atrocities are escalating without any possible justification. Israel is misusing this offensive by Hamas as a pretext for collective punishment of the people in Gaza with the illegitimate justification of neutralizing the so-called "terrorist threat."

In its aim to retaliate against the operation by Hamas, Israel has begun its own airstrikes and offensives toward Gaza; however, this retaliation cannot be described as anything other than an overt violation of all conventions concerning Human Rights and all treaty-related warfare conduct. The behavior by Israeli forces and even the rhetoric used by Israeli public officials puts Israel once again as an aggressor and oppressor, targeting civilians by cutting electricity, water and food supplies, even going further to generalize the Palestinians as "animals." At the same time, Hamas attacks on civilians cannot be justified under the claim of resistance since civilian casualties can only support the Israeli claims that Hamas engages in terrorist activities.

Inopportune timing

The decision of Hamas to engage in a large-scale operation against Israel, disregarding their asymmetrical military position against Israel, is quite detrimental to Palestinian statehood as these attacks have historically been used as a justification for occupation by Israel against the Palestinian state. This resistance method has been used countless times and has shown no positive result for Palestine. The timing of this attack is also very inopportune, especially considering the recent Israeli engagements for normalization of relations with its Arab neighbors (i.e., the Abrahamic Accords) and the fact that this operation stabilized Israeli Premier Benjamin Netanyahu’s government at a time of crisis and losing political legitimacy, speaks loudly that this operation by Hamas was a poorly planned and irrational strategy, which will only prove to damage the Palestinian people and their hopes for the right to self-determination. Furthermore, this can lead to dwindling the territorial space of Gaza and increase Israeli settlements in the West Bank.

Meanwhile, for decades, the international community has failed to find a resolution to the conflict. It has been ineffective in implementing the two-state solution proposed by the United Nations resolutions and the two conflicting sides. Regional actors have also been vague in implementing policies and positions to stop the conflict and create a platform for possible peace talks and solution-making.

Considering the current developments, three possible trajectories may occur, the first one is the emergence of a balance of power that could directly contribute to stifling the aggression of Israel in Gaza with the utilization of humanitarian interventionism by international actors to protect civilians or regional authorities should be involved in establishing a dynamic balance between the two sides. However, the current situation speaks clearly that such a balance is impossible, as no regional actor would enter into a direct conflict with Israel. Meanwhile, while Israel enjoys the backing of the United States and most Western powers, Hamas and its factions cannot obtain such support. Russia and China, as global powers, have positioned themselves in neutrality with the backing for Palestine being left only with half-hearted statements.

The second possible trajectory is the continuation of Israeli retaliation on an increasingly large scale, which will result in the continuation of atrocities, extraditions and occupation against the Palestinian people, against all international treaties and norms.

Is third way possible?

However, a third way might be possible through the involvement of regional actors as administrators via utilizing and rejuvenating U.N. mechanisms, specifically the International Trusteeship System under Chapter XII on non-self-governing territories, Chapter XI of the U.N. declaration. Türkiye, being a prime example of such an actor, can utilize its reputation as a middle power and can be the leading actor in administering this mechanism, backed by Saudi Arabia and Qatar in the Palestinian territories to establish long-lasting peace and develop Palestinian institutions to sustain the possibility of self-determination and realize the two-state solution. Through this method, Israel will no longer be able to infringe upon the territories of Gaza and the West Bank, where the de-jure Palestinian state would be established.

In this kind of establishment, political factions such as Hamas and Hezbollah will wane, and the capacities of the Palestinian state will take its natural space as the legitimate representative of the Palestinian people. The international community and regional (f)actors have the last chance to use this mechanism to stop the bloodshed, atrocities and the killing of innocent civilians on both sides of the conflict, preventing the horrifying possibility of a Palestinian state without its land or its people.

*Professor in the Department of Political Sciences and currently a vice-rector of the International Balkan University, Skopje, North Macedonia

**Teaching assistant in the Department of Political Sciences and now assistant to the vice-rector of the International Balkan University, Skopje, North Macedonia