In my previous opinions in Daily Sabah, I discussed Türkiye's demographic transformation and its effect in terms of both the health and social welfare system, the economic development model and the social and political future of the country. We have new data that further reveals this demographic transformation: child statistics published by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat).

According to data published by TurkStat, as of the end of 2023, the population of Türkiye is 85.4 million. Some 22.2 million, or 26%, are children, with 51.3% being boys and 48.7% girls.

According to the United Nations definition, the child population, including the 0-17 age group, constituted 48.5% of the total population in 1970, while this rate became 41.8% in 1990 and 26.0% in 2023. The child population rate, which fell below 40% in 2000, has shown a steady decline over the years. When this data is evaluated with the decline in fertility rates to 1.51, the lowest figure in the history of the republic, we see that Türkiye is rapidly aging.

It is expected that this trend will continue. According to TurkStat's population projections, the child population rate is estimated to decline to 25.6% in 2030, 23.3% in 2040, 20.4% in 2060 and 19.0% in 2080. Conversely, the elderly rate, which was 10.1% by 2023, will increase rapidly. According to population projections, the elderly population rate is expected to be 12.9% in 2030, 16.3% in 2040, 22.6% in 2060 and 25.6% in 2080.

Türkiye-EU comparison

It should be underlined that Türkiye's child population rate is still high compared to European Union members. When the child population rates of the bloc's 27 countries are examined based on the data of the European Union Statistical Office (Eurostat), the EU average in 2023 was 18.0%. Among EU member states, the countries with the highest child population ratio are Ireland at 23.4%, France at 21.1% and Sweden at 20.9%. The countries with the lowest child population ratio are Malta with 15.1%, Italy with 15.4% and Portugal with 15.9%, respectively.

Türkiye's child population rate is significantly higher than the EU, with 26.0%. This shows that Türkiye has a 10-15-year window of opportunity to make the necessary preparations before facing the permanent and severe effects of the population crisis.

Regional differences

When the data of the Address-Based Population Registration System is examined, it is seen that the young population rate is not evenly distributed throughout the country, and the rate of decline in the young population is slower in some regions than others.

When the child population rates within the total population of the provinces are examined, it is seen that the province with the highest child population rate in 2023 is Şanlıurfa with 44.4%, followed by eastern provinces such as Şırnak with 40.5%, and Ağrı and Muş with 38.2%.

In contrast, an aging phenomenon concentrated in the western provinces also stands out from the data. According to the data, the province with the lowest child population rate is Tunceli with 16.5%, followed by Edirne with 17.5% and Kırklareli with 18.3%. While the Marmara, Aegean and Black Sea regions have a low young population, the rate of children of 35% and above is noteworthy in the eastern and southeastern regions where citizens of Kurdish descent live. When the data is evaluated, it is clear that the desire to have children is lower in metropolitan cities and more socio-economically developed regions. This constitutes important information for Türkiye's demographic planning.

43% of households

According to TurkStat data, the total number of households in Türkiye in 2023 was 26.31 million. It is seen that 43.6% of households have at least one child in the 0-17 age group. When the distribution of households with children by province is examined, the province with the highest proportion of households with at least one child is Şanlıurfa with 69.0%, while the provinces with the lowest are Tunceli and Sinop with 29.1%.

In households with at least one child, 18.9% have one child, 15.0% have two, 6.3% have three, 2.1% have four and 1% have five or more children.

When the child population is examined by age group, it is seen that while 28.3% of the child population was in the 0-4 age group in 2018, this rate decreased to 24.1% by 2023.

These data shows that the country has a high need for infrastructure investments in child care and education. It also reveals that Türkiye still has a young population potential that can be exploited if the necessary investments are made in the infrastructure.

Improvement in health care

Türkiye has made significant progress in the field of health care since the 2000s and has turned into a leader. Maternal and child health care is one of the areas where the fastest progress is being made. This development, which is also reflected in the United Nations Human Development Indices, shows a historical improvement in the number of women receiving prenatal health services and in live births and infant mortality statistics.

According to TurkStat's birth statistics, the number of babies born alive in 2022 was 1.04 million. Of the live-born babies, 96.8% were single births, 3.1% were twins, and 0.1% were triplets and more multiple births.

According to the Ministry of Health data, the rate of births taking place in hospitals was 91.6% in 2010 and increased to 97.3% in 2022. Likewise, the vaccination rate of at least three doses of five-valent combination vaccines (DPT IPV Hib) has increased from 95.0% in 2021 to 99.5% in 2022. It should also be noted that these rates occurred at a time when Türkiye hosted more than 4 million refugees.

Rising life expectancy

It can be said that Türkiye's breakthroughs in the field of health care undoubtedly show themselves most directly in the statistics regarding life expectancy at birth. According to TurkStat's "Life Tables, 2020-2022" data, life expectancy at birth is 77.5 years for Türkiye overall, 74.8 years for men and 80.3 years for women.

In Türkiye, the average remaining life expectancy of a child who reaches the age of 7 is 71.4 years, 68.7 years for boys and 74.1 years for girls. For 15-year-old children, which is the beginning of working age, this period has been determined as 63.5 years. While this period is 60.8 years for boys, it is 66.2 years for girls. It is seen that the difference in life expectancy between boys and girls for this age is 5.4 years.

For comparison, life expectancy at birth, which was 72.5 in 2002 when the Justice and Development Party (AK Party) governments came to power, consistently increased to 77.5 by 2022. It is necessary to underline that this longevity increase has serious consequences for the future of the Turkish health care system.

Rapid decline in infant mortality

Türkiye has made significant progress in the infant mortality rate, an important issue among the human development criteria. While the infant mortality rate was 13.9 per thousand in 2009, this figure has decreased to 9.2 per thousand in 2022. When the infant mortality rate is examined by gender, it is seen that between 2009 and 2022, the infant mortality rate decreased from 14.6 per thousand to 9.9 per thousand for male babies, and from 13.1 per thousand to 8.4 per thousand for female babies.

When evaluated in terms of the "under-5 mortality rate" criterion, which expresses the probability of dying within five years after birth, this figure was 17.7 per thousand in 2009 and decreased to 11.2 per thousand in 2022. When the under-5 mortality rate is examined by gender, between 2009 and 2022, the under-5 mortality rate increased from 18.5 per thousand to 12.1 per thousand for boys, and from 16.8 per thousand to 10.2 per thousand for girls.

The data in question shows that Türkiye has made significant progress in terms of maternal and child health following both the Health Transformation Reform in 2003 and the implementation of the General Health Insurance system in 2012. Yet, the data show that the downward momentum has stagnated since 2016.

Undoubtedly, this data shows that individuals' access to quality health services is higher, but it is also an indicator of the aging process. The main reason for the aging of the population in developed countries is the improvement in the quality and access to health care services. From this perspective, the transformation in health care services triggers Türkiye's demographic transformation.

Elderly dependency ratio

An important issue is that the child dependency rate in Turkish society was 31.4% as of 2023. The total age dependency ratio is defined as the number of people in the 0-14 to 65 and over age groups per 100 working-age people in the 15-64 age group. According to TurkStat data, the total age dependency rate in 2023 was 46.3%. In contrast, the child dependency ratio, which represents the number of children in the 0-14 age group per 100 people aged 15-64, was 31.4%.

When looked at over the years, it is seen that the child dependency rate, which was 75.8% in 1935, dropped to 60% at the turn of the millennium, and dropped to 34.5% as of 2018. Projections expect the child dependency ratio to continue to decline, falling to 26% by 2080. Then again, it is projected that the elderly dependency ratio, which is 23% by 2023, will increase rapidly and approach 37% by 2060 and 45% by 2080.

This data reveals that elderly care will become an important challenge in Türkiye in the next three decades and establishing a long-term care insurance model immediately is an issue of national interest. If Türkiye does not establish it without delay, on the one hand, it will leave an unbearable heavy burden on the shoulders of future generations, and on the other hand, this would mean the bankruptcy of Türkiye's welfare model. Factors such as the rapid disintegration of the family structures and the decrease in the married population reveal the need for Türkiye to establish a sustainable care model.

In summary, the child statistics of TurkStat are an important data set that reveals the demographic transformation of Türkiye. Data reveals that the aging process that Türkiye is going through is an important transformation exposing itself with the decrease in the child population rate and an increase in the dependent elderly population. It is necessary to carefully consider this transformation thoroughly and develop relevant policies. The recent data confirms my previous assessment that the country needs a baby boom. Alongside investing in pronatalist policies and the youth, switching to a long-term care insurance system emerges as an important necessity and challenge that cannot be postponed.