In a rapidly changing world, Africa has emerged as a key stage for global competition. With its vast resources and strategic significance, the continent is drawing significant interest from powerful players such as Russia, China and the United States.
As Africa faces new promises and potential threats, leaders on the continent are challenged to make choices that could shape Africa’s role in an increasingly multipolar world. Recent developments underscore the complexity of this environment: Russian President Vladimir Putin has extended a promise of “total support” to Africa, presenting Moscow as a counterbalance to Western influence.
Meanwhile, China is expanding its presence in Africa’s electric vehicle (EV) sector, leveraging its potential as a market and production base. At the same time, the approaching return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency brings uncertainty about America’s future engagement with Africa.
Russia’s “total support” for Africa, highlighted at the recent summit in Sochi, reflects Moscow’s ambition to deepen alliances beyond the Western sphere. Isolated due to its ongoing conflict with Ukraine, Russia is presenting itself as a non-colonial partner, offering an alternative to what it frames as Western “neo-colonialism.” This message resonates with several African countries, including Mali and Burkina Faso, where leaders have grown wary of France and other Western influences.
Russia’s narrative emphasizes its historical support for decolonization and its recent strategic partnerships with African nations seeking defense and economic stability. Moscow’s support includes military assistance, economic investments and diplomatic partnerships that offer African countries a model different from traditional Western alliances.
However, underlying questions remain regarding the depth of Russia’s engagement. Some experts argue that Russia’s commitment to Africa might diminish if its geopolitical needs change, especially if the conflict in Ukraine is concluded. Russia’s interest in Africa seems largely transactional, focusing on short-term advantages, such as natural resource access and arms deals, rather than a long-term strategy for African development. This presents a dilemma for African leaders: While Russian support can provide valuable resources and influence, over-reliance on Moscow can limit Africa’s independence and flexibility in the future.
Africa’s leaders should weigh the benefits of engaging with Russia against the potential risks. By developing specific mutual agreements and safeguarding their own autonomy, African countries can navigate this partnership effectively. Russia’s promise of “total support” can benefit Africa, but only if African leaders take steps to maintain control over the direction of their partnerships and ensure that these engagements serve long-term national and regional interests.
While Russia’s influence in Africa is largely driven by military and political factors, China’s presence is deeply rooted in economic partnerships, particularly in the energy and technology sectors. As China faces tariffs from the U.S. and the European Union, Africa has become an increasingly attractive market and production base for Chinese EV companies. Recently, major Chinese automakers, including BAIC and Zeekr, committed to establishing EV manufacturing plants in Egypt. This investment leverages Africa’s growing market potential and Egypt’s strategic location, enabling China to access African and Middle Eastern markets and reduce its dependency on traditional Western consumers.
China’s investment in Africa’s EV industry aligns with its broader Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), positioning Africa as a strategic node in China’s global supply chain. China is creating new opportunities for economic growth in Africa by building factories and infrastructure. However, African leaders must be cautious in avoiding overreliance on China. Although Chinese investments can stimulate job creation and technological advancement, they can also lead to economic dependency if African industries remain dependent on Chinese expertise and capital.
African nations should negotiate terms that emphasize technology transfer, workforce training, and local capacity building to ensure that these partnerships benefit their economies in the long run. As Africa adopts clean energy and advanced technology, a balanced approach to Chinese investment can empower African economies, turning the continent into a competitive global green economy. By focusing on equitable agreements, Africa can harness China’s economic strength, while safeguarding its autonomy.
A second Trump administration could shift U.S. priorities in Africa, likely focusing less on aid and more on strategic investments that counterbalance China’s influence. Trump’s first term largely ignored Africa, with the most notable policy change being a reduction in aid and diplomatic engagement. Yet members of Trump’s previous national security team, including Peter Pham, recognize Africa’s strategic significance in the U.S.-China rivalry.
Should Trump return, the U.S. may continue strategic initiatives such as the Lobito Corridor, which aims to reduce Africa’s dependence on China to export critical minerals. However, African leaders must prepare for the possibility that Trump’s policies prioritize short-term economic gains over the long-term developmental needs of African nations.
One likely change in U.S. policy under Trump would be cuts to the foreign aid budget, which could have substantial effects on African nations that rely on this support. This might lead African leaders to seek new alliances or strengthen ties with countries that are less inclined to impose political conditions on their aid.
Moreover, Trump’s stance on certain social policies, including LGBTQ+ rights, contrasts sharply with the Biden administration’s, potentially reshaping U.S. relationships with African countries that resist these policies. For example, Uganda could see a return to preferential trade arrangements under Trump following its expulsion from the African Growth and Opportunity Act due to its anti-LGBTQ+ laws.
African nations should not rely solely on U.S. aid or favorable trade policies to sustain growth. Instead, by diversifying their partnerships, they can better protect themselves from the uncertainty of U.S. political shifts. Leaders should also approach U.S. partnerships with realistic expectations, focusing on initiatives that offer mutual benefits, such as infrastructure and trade development, rather than expecting comprehensive support for domestic agendas.
Africa stands at a strategic crossroads, with multiple global powers vying for influence on the continent. By carefully navigating these relationships, African leaders can maximize their benefits while ensuring that foreign influence does not compromise Africa’s autonomy. The following are several recommendations for African decision-makers.
Firstly, African countries should negotiate agreements that prioritize technology transfer, workforce training and local content requirements to leverage foreign investment effectively. Partnerships with foreign companies in sectors such as electric vehicles or renewable energy should include provisions that support domestic industry and enable African talent to develop skills for long-term economic sustainability.
Secondly, African leaders should align foreign partnerships with development goals, focusing on infrastructure, green technology and social resilience. By emphasizing inclusive growth, African countries can address social and economic inequalities, strengthen national stability and create a more favorable environment for foreign investments that benefit the population.
Thirdly, while Russia, China and the U.S. are the most prominent global actors in Africa, African leaders should engage with other nations that offer less conditional support, such as Türkiye and the Gulf states. These partnerships can provide additional financial resources and technical support without the political strings that often accompany Western or Chinese assistance. Broadening the base of partnerships helps Africa reduce its reliance on any single power and enhances its bargaining power.
Fourthly, strengthening regional alliances allows African countries to negotiate more effectively with foreign powers. Platforms such as the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) enable African nations to act collectively, making it easier to attract investments that respect the continent’s priorities. By fostering regional unity, African leaders can ensure that Africa’s interests are addressed globally.
Fifthly, as foreign investment increases, African governments must maintain transparency in their dealings to prevent corruption and ensure that the benefits reach local populations. Clear regulations governing foreign investments will strengthen public trust, reduce the risk of dependency, and create a stable investment environment that benefits both African economies and foreign investors.
Africa has never been significant in a rapidly evolving multipolar world. Russia’s promise of “total support,” China’s calculated expansion in Africa’s EV sector, and a potential shift in U.S. priorities under Trump’s leadership all present African leaders with both opportunities and challenges. By strategically engaging with these powers, diversifying partnerships and prioritizing sustainable growth, Africa can position itself as an autonomous and influential player on a global stage.
African leaders have the chance to shape a future in which Africa’s growth is marked by resilience, sustainability and independence. With prudent forward-thinking policies, Africa can leverage foreign partnerships to create prosperous, stable and self-reliant futures.
