Last month, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence published the Annual Threat Assessment of the United States. This report, which reflects the collective insights of the American Intelligence Community, highlights four state actors, one of which is Russia.

Conceptually, Russia is described as an aggressive actor. In this context, it is defined as an actor that challenges the rules of the international system and the primacy of the U.S. within. The Russia-Ukraine war has been acknowledged as one of the main threats to the rules-based global order.

Contrary to what the majority of academics argue, the real threat to the U.S. is not indicated as China. According to the report, China is defined as an actor in the race to surpass the national power of the U.S.. In contrast, Russia is described as an actor that directly threatens America on both regional and global levels.

Within the scope of the report, Russia is examined under eight subheadings where various issues, from cyber and space issues to weapons of mass destruction and the ongoing war in Ukraine, are evaluated. At the outset, it is argued that Russia was seriously damaged in the Ukrainian war yet is still resilient enough to consolidate its national interests and disrupt the influence of the West. In other words, even though Russia loses ground and prestige, it seems to have the potential to consolidate its havoc. In this context, cooperation with countries such as China, Iran and North Korea, which the West sees as enemies and rivals, is an important fulcrum. In particular, trade with China increases Russia's resistance and makes it possible to compensate for its losses.

Furthermore, Moscow will likely continue to use all its national resources to thwart the objectives of the U.S. and its allies. Here, many aspects of power capabilities are specified, including military, intimidation, cyber operations and so on. Among various factors, energy is highlighted as one of the most significant tools. Yet again, contrary to the general opinion and the emerging debate, it is stated that Putin does not want to enter into a direct war with the U.S. and NATO. Rather, the Kremlin seeks to confront without crossing the threshold of war.

Key insights on Russia-Ukraine war

The report provides significant clues regarding the war in Ukraine. To begin with, it claims that Russia suffered around 300,000 casualties, which corresponds to 20% of all its active military personnel. As if that was not enough, the Russian army lost a significant amount of armored combat vehicles, equivalent to thousands. In armed conflicts that have evolved into wars of attrition, both sides are overly worn out.

Russia has worn out regarding workforce and moral superiority, but Ukraine is in an equation that is very difficult to get out of. The Russians can replace their losses, including the workforce, and meet their need for weapons and ammunition by channeling the defense industry in this direction. However, Ukraine does not have enough weapons, ammunition and defense systems; notwithstanding, its military personnel are limited. Not only did Ukraine's counter-attacks fail, but also the possibility of success in the future became difficult, considering the delayed Western aid. Therefore, the current situation reveals a scenario strategically in Russia's favor, and the initiative is said to be advancing in favor of the Kremlin.

The American intelligence community is calculating a decline in Russian ground power. That being said, a recovery period of several years is foreseen. In this context, the expansion of land power announced by Moscow is unlikely to be successful. Regardless, it is considered that the necessary power projection for the war in Ukraine can be achieved without the need for reserves. It is also emphasized that nuclear power will come to the fore in terms of strategic deterrence and other force commands will have an important place in both Russian combat power and global power projection.

Russia's nuke arsenal: A strategic imperative

The remaining subjects cover weapons of mass destruction, cyberattacks and malign influence operations and space. Above all, the intelligence report clearly indicates that Russia possesses and will continue to possess "the largest and most diverse nuclear weapons stockpile." Hereby, it considers nuclear weapons as Moscow's most important and effective means of challenge against U.S. primacy. Furthermore, Russia perceives such weapons as a way to counter Western conventional forces and deter and manage escalation. Going further, the report argues that they are "the ultimate guarantor of the Russian Federation."

Further in the report, it is stated that Russia is a global cyber threat and actively used such weapons in the Ukraine conflict. Moreover, cyber is acknowledged as a Russian foreign policy tool that affects the decision-making mechanisms of other states. In malicious influence operations, it is emphasized that Russia has developed policies to disrupt the unity and harmony of the Western alliance, e.g., targeting the voters in the U.S. and its allies. There is a clear concern that it will continue to exploit cracks in the West. Additionally, the report refers to Russia as an important rival to the U.S. and its allies in space. As a matter of fact, Russia invests in military space technologies, increases armament, and continues to develop ground-based anti-satellite weapons to target U.S. satellites.

Finally, several challenges for Russia are delineated, some of which seem more like wishes rather than predictions. As such, concerning the 2024 presidential elections, a domestic challenge or a decline of support from the elites does not seem realistic. However, it is consistent to argue that economic pressure, especially the burden created by the war economy on both the public and private sectors and the lack of foreign investment, will be a significant challenge for Russia in the future.

*Academic at National Intelligence Academy