One of the most important elements of modern warfare is superiority in the air. The war in Ukraine has revealed its significance to the world once again. Lacking an air defense system and an adequate air force, Ukraine has been calling on world powers to declare a no-fly zone for weeks. However, it has not been able to find support from the Western bloc, especially the United States.
Instead, some scenarios were circulated, such as the delivery of Russian-made MiG-29 fighter jets from other countries to Ukraine or the transfer of these systems to Ukraine by NATO member countries that have the Russian S-300 air defense systems. Poland, for example, proposed to send its fighter jets to the U.S. base in Germany for Washington to transfer them to Kyiv. The U.S. rejected it. “It is simply not clear to us that there is a substantive rationale for it,” the Pentagon said, showing the U.S.' reluctance to put NATO and Russia in direct confrontation.
As for the S-300s, three NATO member countries have Russian air defense systems: Bulgaria, Greece and Slovakia. It was even rumored that the very three countries may transfer their Russian systems to Ukraine to use against their producer, Russia. Some U.S. officials were behind the rumors, which were empty, just like the MiG-29 claims as the U.S. didn’t even make an official statement regarding the issue.
Just as the countries were already on the brink of giving up hope for the U.S. to help Ukraine, the U.S. media released another absurd scenario.
As usual, some “anonymous” U.S. officials spoke first to The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) and then to The New York Times (NYT), saying that Washington knocked on Ankara's door and Turkey could be included in the F-35 project again in return for the delivery of the S-400 air defense systems to Ukraine and that the embargoes could be lifted.
This proposal, which was not taken seriously by analysts when the WSJ first reported it, only became an agenda in Turkey after it was brought up by the NYT once again. Washington was obviously and seriously considering the scenario, which was shared as a joke on social media indeed. I wanted to write this column to clarify why the scenario could not be realized.
Before I begin to explain it, it is necessary to underline the double standard marring Turkey's purchase of S-400s. Those fussing over how a NATO member country could buy a Russian air system should look at the three countries, Bulgaria, Greece and Slovakia, mentioned at the beginning of the article, that also have Russia's S-300s. They are all NATO members. Have they been subject to any sanctions? No.
As I mentioned earlier, superiority in the air is a must for the defense of a country. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is also a leader who is aware of this fact. You should not only have high-tech aircraft, but also a good air defense system.
Based on this need, Turkey first knocked on the door of the U.S. for the purchase of Patriots. When an agreement could not be reached, Turkey turned to Russia and bought the S-400s. If Turkey had not taken this step, as a country without an air defense system like Ukraine, it would have to ask other countries for help. This is the assurance the S-400s give to Turkey, regardless of where they are purchased.
Despite all the threats hurled before the purchase and all the embargoes imposed afterward, Turkey did not change its firm stance on the S-400 issue. It was expelled from the F-35 program, of which it was a partner. Instead, the country developed its own Bayraktar armed drones, which changed the paradigm of war in the world. The Bayraktar drones are proving to be one of the biggest defense forces for Ukraine, which asked almost all countries for defense help.
Selçuk Bayraktar, who developed the Turkish drones, expressed very well how these unfair embargoes against Turkey were in vain. “Although it seems like a disadvantage for us today that they don't provide the F-35s, it may be one of the best things for our national defense industry tomorrow,” he once expressed. Bayraktar was right. Turkey is now developing its own unmanned warplane.
Let’s back to the main topic. How was the absurd S-400 offer perceived in Ankara?
The following statements by Presidency of Defense Industries (SSB) Chairperson Ismail Demir at the Antalya Diplomacy Forum summarize Turkey's stance. “We think that the F-35 issue is over and we should take matters into our own hands. We have to develop various sub-capabilities in our projects such as National Combat Aircraft (MMU) and Hürjet (domestically developed advanced jet trainer and light attack aircraft), as much as we can. From the defense industry's point of view, we closed the Patriot chapter. This issue came out of the defense department. It is also not right to row against the current.”
Those who said Turkey made a great mistake in purchasing the S-400s are now writing about how the country’s air defense systems and aircraft power proved their worth in the international arena. They are now developing scenarios on the Russian air defense systems, which Turkey bought by taking its all political risks. At the beginning of the article, I said that I would discuss why their scenarios are likely to fail. Let's list those reasons one by one.
The collective answer to all these questions is "no."
The world's “superpower,” the U.S., could not even approve the three NATO member countries to send S-300s to Ukraine and objected to Poland's delivery of MiG-29s. That being the case, it is not only unfair to expect Turkey, the only NATO member that can negotiate with both Russia and Ukraine, to give up its S-400s, but it also confirms that the U.S. is no longer a "superpower" in reality. Turkey managed to get the air defense system and F-35 cards from the U.S. For this reason, theories that are detached from reality produced in Washington are now making Turkey say that the U.S. is living in a wonderland.
