It is being speculated that Israel's ongoing attacks on Gaza since October have prompted a reassessment of the United States' regional policies, sparking discussions within the Joe Biden administration about the potential withdrawal of U.S. troops from Syria and Iraq. Allegations initially raised by major media outlets like Reuters earlier in the year have resurfaced in light of recent developments in the region.

While these claims have not been officially verified, conflicting statements are emerging from official sources regarding the matter. It is widely recognized that the U.S. Department of Defense (Pentagon) has been the most resistant to the notion of ending the "endless wars," a concept often debated during the tenure of former President Donald Trump but never actualized. However, this issue transcends mere institutional sovereignty; arguments such as the ongoing fight against Daesh no longer suffice to convince the American public to support the expenditure of their tax dollars beyond their borders.

Furthermore, the consistent support for withdrawal in Trump's stance, coupled with his rising popularity in polls leading up to the upcoming elections, adds pressure on the Biden administration to address this matter decisively.

According to reports in the international press, the issue of U.S. withdrawal from Syria has not yet been addressed. The current focus lies on the U.S. presence in Iraq. Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed S. Al Sudani has repeatedly stated that the mission of the U.S.-led coalition forces in the country has concluded and they should withdraw.

Additionally, the Iraqi Foreign Ministry has announced an agreement between Baghdad and Washington to establish a commission aimed at initiating discussions about the future of the U.S.-led military coalition in Iraq. This commission will be tasked with determining a timetable for the gradual withdrawal of troops and the eventual termination of the coalition's presence.

Iraq vs. Afghanistan contexts

For the Biden administration, the primary concern regarding Iraq is to avoid a recurrence of the chaotic scenes witnessed during the withdrawal from Afghanistan. As Trump emphasized, such "ineptitude" not only undermined U.S. hegemony in Afghanistan but also had repercussions extending from the Gulf to Eastern Europe. The resulting power vacuum led to new regional alliances, such as the Saudi-Iran rapprochement, which excluded the U.S. Moreover, it emboldened China and Russia in their pursuit of expanding spheres of influence.

Hawks in the U.S. assert that a scenario akin to the "apocalypse" witnessed in Afghanistan would unfold should they withdraw from Iraq. However, the contexts of the two nations differ significantly. Despite enduring years of U.S. occupation, Iraq maintains a functional state apparatus and an integrated democratic political system, setting it apart from Afghanistan. Moreover, its economy is self-sustaining.

The impediments to normalization in Iraq include not only the presence of the U.S. and proxy groups like the PKK but also Iran's military presence in the region.

In this context, Türkiye's role proves invaluable. Ankara boasts seamless political, commercial and cultural ties not only with Iraq's central government but also with the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in the north. President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's recent visit to Iraq unequivocally underscored Türkiye's pivotal role in fostering stability in the country.

Should the mutual occupation by the U.S. and Iran in Iraq cease, Türkiye could naturally assume a significant role as a mediator in the transitional phase. Such dialogue would serve as a crucial cornerstone for regional peace.