Nearly a year after the historic presidential and parliamentary elections last year, Turkish voters are once again heading to the ballot boxes, this time for the municipal elections on March 31.

In the wake of the general elections, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's triumph secured the continued dominance of the People's Alliance, led by the ruling Justice and Development Party (AK Party), in Parliament. Their victory stood in stark contrast to the collective efforts of the Nation Alliance, which included the main opposition Republican People's Party (CHP), and five other opposition factions. Since then, while the People’s Alliance has remained unified, the opposition alliance has dissolved and the main opposition CHP has replaced its chairperson Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, who has lost all elections since he took over the party, with Özgür Özel.

Anticipation mounts as the electorate focuses its gaze on key urban centers such as Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir, among other densely populated provinces. Istanbul, in particular, commands unparalleled attention, a tradition deeply entrenched in the annals of Turkish politics.

The reason behind the importance can be explained at three levels.

High stakes: Anticipation builds in key urban centers

Firstly, the significance of Istanbul transcends national borders, as echoed by Napoleon Bonaparte's evocative proclamation that, "If the world was a single country, Istanbul would be its capital." This sentiment underscores the city's multifaceted allure as a nexus where East meets West, embodying both historical grandeur and contemporary vibrancy. While Ankara may hold the mantle of the official capital, Istanbul reigns supreme as the cultural and commercial epicenter of the nation. Boasting a populace exceeding 15 million, Istanbul pulsates with economic vitality, fueled by substantial international and domestic investments and a skilled labor force. Indeed, the budget of Istanbul municipality rivals that of some governmental ministries. Moreover, as a bastion of historical legacy, Istanbul's glamour extends to millions of tourists who pilgrimage to its storied streets. The city's demographic mosaic, comprising transplants from across the nation, serves as a microcosm of Turkish society, thereby rendering its electoral pulse a bellwether for the nation at large.

Secondly, beneath the veneer of grandeur lie pressing challenges that demand urgent actions by the metropolitan municipality. Urban transformation and traffic congestion rank prominently among the grievances voiced by residents, alongside concerns regarding the soaring cost of living. Istanbul's precarious location atop seismic fault lines underscores the imperative for robust urban renewal initiatives to mitigate the looming specter of a major earthquake. Moreover, the city's arterial thoroughfares suffocate under the weight of vehicular gridlock. According to the report prepared by the "Dataritim Data Research Group," formed by academics, on Istanbul traffic, which has been monitored for nine years, those living in the megacity spend approximately 3.5 years waiting in traffic. Criticisms directed at the incumbent administration, particularly Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu, for purportedly faltering in addressing these necessities have reverberated throughout the electorate. The economic crisis following the pandemic and the Ukraine-Russia war and other geopolitical issues hindered the economic recovery.

Furthermore, the economic cost of the deadly Feb. 6 earthquake has made the recovery slower than expected. Escalating rent prices in the city further strain the pockets of Istanbulites, posing a formidable challenge to the central government led by the AK Party. However, recent policy interventions spearheaded by the new Cabinet's economic management team, led by Finance Minister Mehmet Şimşek, offer a glimmer of hope, signaling a promising resurgence buoyed by cautious fiscal stewardship. The trust relationship in getting work done has been one of the key factors that President Erdoğan and the AK Party governments have established with the voters. A clear example of this was the May 2023 elections where voters reelected Erdoğan despite challenges following the earthquake, dubbed as the "disaster of the century."

Thirdly, as the electoral arena braces for the clash of titans, the mayoral race in Istanbul assumes a pivotal role in shaping the trajectory of Turkish politics. The contest between the incumbent Mayor Ekrem Imamoğlu and AK Party's nominee Murat Kurum, which is seen as a neck-to-neck race according to pollsters, embodies a clash of visions for the city's future.

The opposition won the Istanbul and Ankara municipalities in the 2019 municipal elections after 25 years of AK Party rule in Türkiye’s largest two cities, boosting morale in the opposite pole, which have lost all the previous elections against the AK Party. The main opposition CHP and the Nation Alliance, dubbed the "table for six," referring to the six other parties that supported them, entered the May 2023 general elections with that hype.

However, Erdoğan’s win led to the quick dissolution of the opposition bloc, and members of the "table for six" are entering the elections with their own mayoral candidates instead of backing Imamoglu. In addition, the newly-elected chairperson of the CHP has not shown consistency and strong leadership, causing intraparty disorganization. As such, while the Istanbul elections will be a litmus test for the CHP and the opposition, while for Imamoğlu, the stakes transcend mere municipal governance, as his political fortunes intertwine with aspirations for leadership within the CHP and as a potential presidential contender in 2028.

Conversely, Kurum's tenure as Minister of Environment, Urbanization and Climate Change positions him as a formidable contender with a record of accomplishment of tangible achievements, particularly in post-disaster reconstruction efforts following the Feb. 6 earthquakes.

The Turkish voters do not like blurry pictures. This was clearly the case in the May 2023 election results when the opposition had intrabloc conflicts and a higgledy-piggledy image. Again, a disorganized image on the opposition pole does not reflect a clear picture on the voters’ minds.

For the AK Party and People’s Alliance, it is also a significant election as Erdoğan has always put a personal importance on Istanbul elections. Istanbul is Erdoğan’s hometown and where he built his political career from scratch to becoming the mayor of the city. Erdoğan is also very aware of the psychological effects of the results in Istanbul on the overall results and voters’ psyche across the country. In addition, the president wants to maintain the momentum built with the win in last year’s elections.

Recently, Erdoğan said the March 31 municipal elections would be his "finale."

"According to the law, this election is my last election," the president said, adding that the positive results, particularly in Istanbul, would be a "transfer of what we are entrusted to our brothers and sisters who will succeed me." As such, Erdoğan sees Istanbul’s elections as critical because of the effects it will have on the 2028 presidential elections.

In conclusion, while election results will have significant implications for Istabulites' daily lives, indeed who the winner will be will have more effects on Turkish politics, beyond the services and projects that the winner will bring. In the end, the voters are in charge and they will make the best democratic choice for their city and beyond.