Ahead of the March 2024 municipal elections, the ongoing Good Party (IP) crisis continues to capture everyone’s attention. That party’s chairwoman, Meral Akşener, recently accused the mayors of Istanbul and Ankara, Ekrem Imamoğlu and Mansur Yavaş, of "cowardice." Several parliamentarians are rumored to be on the brink of leaving the IP over those comments.
Yet, it is the main opposition, the Republican People’s Party (CHP), that faces the real challenge. Let us recall that the IP had formed an alliance with the CHP in the 2019 municipal elections, ending up winning zero mayoral races at the provincial level. That is why the movement will have a lower bar for success compared to the main opposition party as it contests next year’s election “freely” and “independently.” Indeed, Akşener could double down on her current policy if her party merely receives as many votes in March 2024 as it did in the May 2023 parliamentary election.
By contrast, the CHP replaced its chairperson and the potential loss of Istanbul and Ankara would fuel a serious crisis. Moreover, such an outcome would seriously undermine Imamoğlu’s leadership bid.
It is possible to appreciate that the CHP controlling both metropolitan municipalities gives the two mayors, Imamoğlu and Yavaş, significant political clout by looking at the “institutional operation” against the IP.
Moreover, if CHP Chairperson Özgür Özel and Imamoğlu perform poorly in the next election, there could be calls for another leadership battle within the main opposition party, where Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the previous CHP head, might make a comeback. In other words, the CHP leadership will do everything in its power to win in Istanbul and Ankara as the disgruntled prepare for the potential defeat. In this sense, it is impossible to tell how hard the party organization will actually work over the next three months.
There is reason to believe that the CHP’s attempt to win over part of the IP base will fuel clashes between the two movements. Moreover, the main opposition party’s call for “cooperation at the grassroots level” could be doomed to fail without the IP and other right-wing fringe parties in its corner.
Provided that anti-Erdoğanism, the backbone of the opposition’s 2019 and 2023 alliances, has since become less significant, the CHP is compelled to collaborate with the Green Left Party (YSP), informally known as the Peoples' Equality and Democracy Party (DEM Party), a successor of the Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP), to have a shot at winning in Istanbul. That is why the YSP demands transparent negotiation and cooperation, asking for a “collaboration on equal terms, around a table and in front of everyone.” The YSP will understandably make more maximalist demands than in 2019 because the IP and other right-wing fringe parties refuse to work with the CHP this time around.
A recent statement by YSP’s co-Chair Tülay Hatimoğulları Oruç supports that conclusion: “Our strategy in 2019 was solely designed to make the ruling party lose. We established that we won’t adopt the same strategy this time around and that the ‘winning’ strategy was also crucial for us. This time, we want our voters and the will of our people to be reflected by the local governments.” We will learn more about the nature of that will in the coming weeks.
The IP’s decision to contest the March 2024 municipal elections alone made it more difficult for the CHP to collaborate with right-wing fringe parties and compelled it to work with the YSP. That was the heaviest price that the main opposition party had to pay.
There is no reason to think that some kind of "transparent" partnership between the CHP and YSP won’t fuel a debate on ideology and identity on the campaign trail. In other words, Imamoğlu and Yavaş won’t face criticism from the People’s Alliance alone. The IP, too, will take a jab at CHP’s mayoral candidates as part of its "third-way" strategy – this time concerning national identity, not just “cowardice.”
To get reelected, the mayors of Istanbul and Ankara will have to form an "alliance of ideology and identity" among voters as they did in 2019. They can’t possibly generate that kind of momentum without the IP, though. Without an alliance between political parties, it is difficult for either candidate to secure the support of voters from different backgrounds.
The bottom line is that the CHP is compelled to collaborate with the YSP and that partnership means facing more criticism regarding identity.
